Category: Uncategorized

October 20th, 2017 by Richard

SPX Oct to Nov Rollover 20th Oct 2017

 

 

Holding our hands up we were feeling rather smug when this index got down to 2547.92 and looked to or did test the lower boundary of its NZ.

It may have missed on Wednesday but this was the proper reaction to that for the expiry today, but of course we just couldn’t factor in the DJX.

However, at the end of the day, or more specifically the expiry, it looks to be just about 7-points above its zone so very close but no star for us this time.

 

Range:            2555  to  2575

Activity:          Average

Type:               On balance bearish

 

 

 

There is the expected move up in the NZ to match Octobers and does rather neatly tie-off the rollover and expiry week.

Of course, on Monday this expiry assumes full control, or as much as the DJX will allow it we suspect.

One flag already raised is the level of activity, especially today, as at this time it should easily be in the upper half of the scale.

Furthermore, when we consider how underdeveloped this expiry is, and being a back to back intermediary this is not unusual, but as such a small amount does go a long way so this level is actually very disappointing.

 

Range:           2555  to  2585

Activity:         Moderate

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

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NDX Oct to Nov Rollover 20th Oct 2017

 

 

The NDX did give it a jolly good go but unlike the SPX failed to get back to its NZ, only getting as low as 6051.47.

This is a multiple of 25 as was the open at 6074.27 but being the penultimate day, we suspect other forces were at work here.

It did finish easier but no star and as one can see the ratios above the zone were at last tumbling, which at the end of the day only serves to mitigate the pain someone will feel, but only to the tune of Y1 so probably better described as uncomfortable.

 

Range:            6025  to  6175 

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Bearish

 

 

 

We were rather hoping to see all three in sync across the two expiries but the NDX November has spoiled the party.

However, it was on some spectacular activity and unlike the DJX here it has really shaken up the table.

Of course, the NZ has moved, and appropriately to where the market is, but almost all the other levels have moved, especially below the zone, so there is definitely life here still.

 

Range:            6050  to  6100                    

Activity:          Off the scale

Type:              On balance bearish      

 

 

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DJX Oct to Nov Rollover 20th Oct 2017

 

 

 

The NZ in the October DJX has returned to 22500-22700 having been the last 5 days at the lower level, but really the story is not about this although it should be of course.

It was quite a turnaround and they are not called the thundering herd for nothing.

Once it got past R3 this was always the likely outcome but as that level hasn’t budged it is going to be very expensive for someone.

 

 

Range:            22900  to      

Activity:          Good

Type:               Bearish

 

 

 

Rather ironically it is not this NZ that has fallen but rather the front month’s that rose, which just like the SPX ties-off this week nice and neatly.

However, there is still the serious possibility of a move down in the zone here but how influential that may be is the question.

The story here is activity, and it was a very low baseline so this is not that special, but suffice it to say that all that activity and the only change is the appearance of R1 above the zone.

It is all just numbers to us but it does make for a thought provoking potential target.

 

Range:           22700  to  24000 

Activity:         Off the scale

Type:              On balance decently bullish

 

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 20th, 2017 by Richard

 

FTSE Rollover Ratio Table 20th Oct 2017

 

 

This week the auction in the FTSE has been very prominent so after 4 days of rather significant moves down, yesterday we saw a bit of blue for a change.

It was only 4.09-points but we felt it was worth mentioning not only as it bucks the recent trend but being away from 7550 probably/possibly also helped?

This is the expiry and the only thing we can add is that our amber gambler has returned and so we repeat what we said last week that it looks like the goal is 7500.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550

Activity:          Average

Type:               On balance only just bearish

 

 

We have felt for a while now that November was a better reflection of where Octobers NZ should be, and if we do see a day centred around 7500 then this means the FTSE will open Monday back inside its zone.

This is definitely a case of wait and see but is in stark contrast to how the last expiry ended, which could also mean a return to the September expiry format when it never even left its zone the entire time.

Today we have lost Y1 below the zone and Y2 above it, so the ratio noose is tightening for sure, but again with any Y ratio present it is still in stark contrast to the one we are now leaving behind.

 

Range:          7450  to  7550

Activity:        Strong

Type:             On balance fractionally bearish

 

 

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DAX Rollover Ratio Table 20th Oct 2017

 

 

 

All a little too late in the DAX and what stopped the NZ from becoming 12950-13050 was the strange activity yesterday because it was back on track today and just missed changing by a whisker.

However, it doesn’t really change anything as even by the minimal Y1 standards the ratios around the market are closer to zero than anything else.

Still it has been an epic rally here but we can’t help but feel it has dodged a bullet as it did its tightrope walk along the edge of a cliff, but it has got away with it.

 

Range:            12850  to  13250

Activity:          Average

Type:               Bearish

 

 

The November expiry is not coy about changing, which after all is sort of the preserve of the rollover, and in fact this one just looks like a stepping-stone to 12950-13050.

More importantly quite a few of the ratios have strengthened either side of the new zone, but no greater depth of yet.

However, if this index continues to prove sensitive to just R1 then it probably doesn’t need anything higher, although to be reacting to just this degree of ratio is unusual and not something that we would like to rely on.

 

Range:           12850  to  13250

Activity:         Strong

Type:              On balance just fractionally bullish

 

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 19th, 2017 by Richard

 

The SPX did everything in its power we feel to achieve as normal a rollover as possible, namely the move up in the NZ.

This left the upper boundary just a few points away but with the DJX going “to infinity and beyond” it was all it could do just to hold itself essentially stationary.

All we can say is that it was a valiant effort that just goes to prove how unnatural the Dow’s current behaviour is.

So, yet another index we didn’t get the low (as it never went below its NZ) but nailed the high as it was an epic 3-week battle tailgating R1 and of course yesterday was a miss, although not by very much at all and with extreme mitigating circumstances, so all in all not perfect but not disappointing either.

 

Range:            2555  to  2575

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bearish

 

 

Again, it looks very likely that the November NZ will move up to 2545-2555 to match Octobers.

Until it does the development is always going to be stunted which is an issue as it is already struggling to build any depth of ratio.

Although, below the zone, we see both R1 and R2 come in a bit but as this expiry is now but a day away from being the alpha it needs a lot more than it has, unless of course it is just going to blindly continue tailgating R1.

 

Range:           2530  to  2585

Activity:         Very strong

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

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That was a lot closer in the NDX to being a perfect example of the “uncomfortable” trading range we have been mentioning, with an interesting side-line comparison to what happened in the DJX.

Here it opened at 6128.91 which was effectively right on Y2 (NB yesterday it was 6125) and it went a fraction higher to 6129.48 before finishing easier with a low of 6106.85 in the meantime, and very much against the run of play in the other two.

Regarding our forecast the NDX basically spent the first three weeks in or around its NZ, then when that moved up so did the market until eventually the zone stopped but the market carried on to challenge Y2 where it has been tailgating it just like the SPX and R1.

Obviously, the Wednesday was a miss but again we are not unduly concerned by this as it has been very compliant in many other respects.

 

Range:            6025  to  6150 

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Not bullish

 

 

As we said yesterday “again” no changes in the November ratios although today at least we have seen the appearance of R1 below the zone.

Time is fast running out to develop any meaningful depth of ratio but at least with the Y1 ratio so low there is every possibility of the NZ moving to the market rather than the other way around.

At the moment all we can say is we are now lacing up those ice skates in anticipation.

 

Range:            6025  to  6275                    

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral 

 

 

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It seems 23000 was a big level in the DJX to everybody else but us.

For us the defining moment came at 22900 and when it broke that on the 4th attempt it prompted our comment “to infinity and beyond” which in actual terms translates to 251-points with a couple of days to go.

We should also mention that yesterday although the open was up 90-points at 23087 it breached 23100 within minutes (or less) so when we talk about trading in a 100-point multiple depending on its open when this is right on the divider it could of course be 100-points either way.

We haven’t bothered with a forecast in this index for most of this year as it has been in a world of its own and so these will resume when this index returns to planet earth.

 

Range:            22900  to      

Activity:          Average

Type:               On balance bullish

 

 

In the November expiry it is rather odd as the NZ which is already a long way below the current market is looking like it is going to actually fall.

The question is whether this is just dovetailing with October or a sign of a deeper malaise?

Still a couple of days to go but as it is looking very likely that this market is going to start above the highest level of ratio then we are all going “to boldly go where no man has gone before”.

 

Range:           22900  to 

Activity:         Very strong

Type:              On balance bullish

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 19th, 2017 by Richard

 

The FTSE just can’t seem to break through 7550 and today it is unchanged at R2.

Despite this or probably more accurately because of this addiction to 7550 we have to admit that having got the low and high for this expiry the final piece of the forecast, being in the NZ, is obviously a miss.

We now enter the grey area where we generally say anything can happen and normally does just like the last expiry, but this is the case if it complies with being in its zone for the rollover as when it misses it can result in unfinished business that brings a far greater degree of emphasis on the actual expiry itself.

They did try to knock it in the auction again yesterday but failed, so it will be a critical start today having closed so close to the all-important 7550.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550      or       7550  to  7600

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bearish

 

 

We can’t help but feel November is the true reflection of where the NZ should be in October but it had a mountain of ratio to shift to let that happen, and the return of the “amber gambler” probably didn’t help this either.

From here on in this expiry can exert its influence but as this still has a lot of Y ratio present we suspect this may not amount to much even if it does.

 

Range:          7450  to  7550

Activity:        Poor

Type:             Neutral

 

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In an expiry full of surprises in the DAX one last twist is probably only to be expected.

Rather strangely the ratios are stronger above the zone and weaker below it, both bearish, but more importantly it means no change in the NZ.

Only on the first day of this expiry did this index play with its zone thereafter it was powering up through all the Y ratio.

So, we didn’t call the low as it never went below its NZ but we did call the high which at the time was a big call as the market was 12550 (upper boundary of its NZ incidentally) and R1 was at 12850 which moved to 12900 and of course is way past that now.

Of course, we have missed on the market being in its NZ yesterday for the rollover but as it is in Y1 we are not that troubled, especially considering the extent of the move.

 

Range:            12850  to  13200

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bullish

 

 

 

Hardly any change in November and what there was is strength in R1 below the zone as it comes in a bit, but worryingly R1 above the zone slips out and weakness now really is not good.

However, we are continuing to see 12950-13050 as the next potential NZ and hopefully it will decide one way or the other soon as any delay only serves to stunt development, and time is fast running out.

 

Range:           12750  to  13300

Activity:         Moderate

Type:              Bullish

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 18th, 2017 by Richard

 

There is the move up in the SPX’s NZ to 2545-2555 and actually going one better than November’s.

It was on the cards and very much helped by the continuing decent levels of activity.

Although, having said that there is no doubt that it is the derivatives capitulating to equities.

This in itself is no bad thing, the trouble starts when neither wants to give way and then it will prove expensive to someone or another.

Will they make it back to this new zone today we would like to think so, but no disguising who the boss is now.

 

Range:            2555  to  2575

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               On balance bearish

  

 

We very much doubt that November will not match October’s move in its NZ, and the sooner the better as we see Y2 slip here.

Going in the opposite direction is R2 which actually just goes to highlight that this is as high as the ratios go, so far at least.

Even in October it only just went as high as R3 and this has been the case for a while now so equities may be in charge but they are certainly in a world of their own.

 

Range:           2530  to  2585

Activity:         Very good

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

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The NDX is on bit of a loop at the moment with the last few days following a similar pattern.

Yesterday the open was 6111.32 which was actually within the Y1 ratio bandwidth but we have been talking about the range being a multiple of 25 based on the open.

This would therefore put yesterday’s range as 6000 to 6025 (coincidentally also Y2) and the low was 6103.66 and the high 6122.82.

So, it is still in there batting when in fact it should be reacting to its zone.

 

Range:            6025  to  6125 

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Bearish

 

 

Again, no changes to the ratios in November which would not be so much of an issue if it was densely populated.

However, as you can see from the table, there is basically nothing there so even a very little would go a long way, so in fact this week has been almost a case of “only just registered” in respect of activity.

In fact, there is so little ratio just below the zone it really should be the case of it being 5950-6025.

 

Range:            6025  to  6275                    

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Neutral

 

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There is very little we can add to what we said yesterday in the DJX and equities are off to the races.

It remains of course a highly dangerous situation but one that they have been in and forced through many times already this year, and does answer our question of last week whether or not this index was going to return to normal, and glaringly obvious it is not.

If there is any semblance of sanity left then it should at least act like the NDX when it is in a ratio level it is uncomfortable with, and depending on the open the range here should be a multiple of 100 though, not 25.

 

Range:            22900  to      

Activity:          Good

Type:               Bearish

 

 

Everybody is still concentrating on October it seems as her in November we have the first zero activity by our measure.

Of course, today being the actual rollover, this is rather unusual and possibly understandable if it was becalmed, which it evidently isn’t, so it seems nobody wants to take part.

 

Range:           22900  to 

Activity:         Did not register

Type:              N/A

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 18th, 2017 by Richard

 

We have seen the change today in the FTSE that we were explaining yesterday which just highlights the ongoing issue this market has with 7550.

This actually makes 6 tests in a row at this level and we appreciate our strike 3 rule but this is not always the case, which perhaps someone could point out to the DJX.

Having seen what we suspected was our “amber gambler” appear on the last two days of last week, which is early to be fair, we saw no evidence yesterday but there is plenty today.

The end result is the FTSE now has a wider ratio bandwidth to play in and 7500 could very well be the target for Friday.

Otherwise we must mention the last 3 auctions which have seen falls of 16.72, 8.38 and 15.56-points respectively, but more importantly when combined with some weakness in the closing minutes have kept this market well away from finishing anywhere near 7550.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550

Activity:          Average

Type:               Neutral

 

 

It does look as if Oct is going to miss its zone for the rollover today but it is in the perfect position for this expiry, November.

The only ratio to change is R2 below the zone comes in slightly but perhaps the most important aspect is that the trading ranges are the same but for different circumstances.

However, Oct went from R3 below its zone to above it which if that happens here as things stand that will be an absolutely epic trip.

 

Range:          7450  to  7550

Activity:        Poor

Type:             Neutral

 

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It was such a surprise to see some red in the DAX that we thought we would check and surprisingly this was only the 5th down day this expiry, and it is a 5 week one.

Actually, the market closed up in real time so we are not sure this even counts as it was the auction that turned a close of +15.11-points into a negative, which was a big move for this index.

The ratios are weaker across the board, more so above the zone, but we would fully expect to see a further move up in the NZ and most probably to envelope the market.

Bit of a cope out we feel but in an efficient market one or the other has to concede.

 

Range:            12850  to  13250

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bearish

 

 

 

 

Judging by the changes in the November ratios we have no doubt this expiry will emulate October and see a move up in their NZ.

However, this is a cause for concern as this index is now just a few days from being the alpha and yet we are seeing Y2 and R2 above the zone slipping.

Of course, we were getting used to it in Oct but to start so early and when there is so little in the first place this is not good, but potentially very bullish, although unless it fills in underneath it will still be balancing on that cliff edge.

 

Range:           12750  to  13250

Activity:         Strong

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 17th, 2017 by Richard

 

Whether or not Y2 was a speedbump in the SPX was made irrelevant by the open, which was, and no surprise, right on it at 2555.57.

The market did dip below it but we feel it was more to do with the DJX then anything happening here.

Yesterday it was clear up to 2565 and today R1 has slipped to 2570 giving it even more room, so it’s not the domestic ratios that are the problem.

As we have said for a while now staying steadfastly above its zone is a definite sign of a bull market and as we have seen here confirmation as it has been tailgating R1 for the last two weeks plus without a backward step.

All bullish but very unnatural and only ever ends one way, the question is just when?

 

Range:            2505  to  2570

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bearish

 

 

Indeed, today we see the NZ move up to 2520-2530 in November and hopefully this will act as a beacon for October, and with so much Y1 ratio above the zone there it shouldn’t be too hard to match November.

However, we should point out that in a range bound market it should trade between corresponding levels of ratio either side of the NZ.

In a trending market it should trade between the NZ and a strong enough ratio one side or another.

In an unnatural market, or stale, it just bangs its head against whatever ratio stands in its way until it capitulates.

 

Range:           2530  to  2585

Activity:         Average

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish

 

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Monday was just a repeat of Friday in the NDX just a bit higher up courtesy of Y2 slipping.

Yesterday Y2 was 6100 and the open was 6108.66 but again it was just a good example of how this index trades in a ratio level it is uncomfortable with as it only tested one side of its range.

And guess what, Y2 has slipped again so again the open will be critical but it is also worth noting where we are in the expiry as the clock runs down and the market gets further away from its zone.

 

Range:            6025  to  6125 

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance just fractionally bearish

 

 

There are no changes to the ratios in November and therefore there is very little we can add.

However, it is worth noting that October is being sensitive to Y2 so although that is no guarantee this will translate across at least it does give us a trading range here, albeit a massive one.

 

Range:            6025  to  6275                    

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance bearish 

 

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Well the DJX has done it and although it has taken 4 attempts we are surprised it made it even with the others egging them on.

There is no reason why any market can’t overcome any level of ratio, they just have to be adamant enough in their conviction to take on that amount of futures, in this instance selling.

Our issue is that they have given no indication up to now in this expiry of this degree of conviction, and in the rollover week it really is like playing with fire.

The ratios have not changed today, the rollover is tomorrow with the expiry Friday so fingers crossed these tax breaks are worth it.

 

Range:            22900  to      

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Not bullish

 

 

Of course, in a weeks’ time as things stand it wouldn’t make any difference at all as in Nov 22900 is just Y2.

However, as you can see from the above table, it does throw up a totally different set of conditions, which perfectly suit the bulls, or politicians, which to us are one and the same really.

So, no trading range in the DJX for November, or to be more accurate no limit, or as one cartoon character once said “to infinity and beyond”.

 

Range:           22900  to 

Activity:         Good

Type:              Bullish

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 17th, 2017 by Richard

DAX Rollover Ratio’s 17th Oct 2017

 

 

Really you have to give the FTSE ten out of ten for effort as yet again they laid siege to 7550.

It had slipped back yesterday but we always say the day after it can still carry a punch especially if it has just dipped below the threshold.

However, for the last 4 days of last week the high was right on it and in fact the last 2 real time closes were also right on it, so it has a reputation as well.

On the flipside if it ever decided to test 7500 we should point out that here it is only just above the R2 threshold, so probably by the end of today it will be R1.

 

Range:            7450  to  7600

Activity:          Poor

Type:               Bearish

 

 

As we mentioned yesterday we have seen the NZ move up to 7450-7550 today, which means it now envelopes the market, rather neatly.

Of course, it is far easier for the formative expiry to move, especially if it is to where the market is, but the big question is whether or not it will drag Oct with it.

This remains to be seen but here it is nice to see above the zone the ratios in ascending order and evenly spaced.

Below the only change is the introduction of Y2 which makes it look a lot busier than it really is.

 

Range:          7450  to  7550

Activity:        Average

Type:             On balance bearish

 

 

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Well for the DAX you just have to give them ten out of ten for self-control, remarkable really.

The ratios have resumed weakening above the zone and strengthening below it but the NZ has still not budged and the clock is ticking.

Although, just a daily range of 26-points on such a large index, or 0.20%, is abnormal, and at this particular point in an expiry you can stick weirdly in front of that.

 

Range:            12850  to  13150

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               On balance only just bearish

 

 

We came across last expiries DAX rollover and on the last day, for reference 15th September 2017, we said “the NZ could be anywhere between 12150 and 12550, effectively 400-points of zero ratio, what fun”

However, and more importantly the trading range was 12250 to 12900 and on the first day of the Oct expiry the market closed at 12559 and for the last two weeks it has been 12900.

It may still be early days for November but it is worth while keeping an eye on the ratio levels and how they develop as they will very likely have a direct impact on the 4 weeks following this expiry.

 

Range:           12750  to  13250

Activity:         Very good

Type:              Neutral

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 16th, 2017 by Richard

As we said in the SPX on Friday it was all looking bullish here but they may not be the ones who get to decide, which was exactly how it played out so again today a lot will rest on the DJX.

However, don’t write this index off just yet as apart from the very start of the expiry, when it is expected, this is only the second time in just over three weeks that we have seen this level of activity, so it’s up for a fight for sure.

The main change in the ratios today is that with Y2 slipping it has now gone past the market thereby making Y2 at 2555 now a possible speedbump.

R1 continues its slide and we see the return of R3 above the zone, but Wednesday now starts to loom large and the zone is still a long way away.

 

Range:            2505  to  2565

Activity:          Very good

Type:               On balance only just bearish

 

 

 

For the first look at the SPX November expiry there are two main aspects that jump straight out at us.

The first is how little overall ratio there is, and appreciated it is an intermediary to an intermediary but this is a lot less than we would expect, on both sides especially.

The second is the fact that the zones are in sync but because the lack of ratio it is clearer here that the NZ is more than likely to move up, and at the moment 2520-2530 is the firm favourite.

 

Range:           2505  to  2585

Activity:         Average

Type:              On balance bearish

 

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Friday in the NDX was a good example of what we mean when we talk about an index being in a ratio bandwidth it is uncomfortable with.

Having opened up 24.73-points at 6094.72, and don’t forget on Friday Y2 was at 6075, this then fell into this category.

So, as we talk about multiples of 25 (for this index mind) that would make our trading range 6075 to 6100.

The high was 6100.06 and the low was 6087.02, which to be fair is still a bit away but why it is classed as good not perfect.

As it’s the start of the rollover and being where it is either the market or the ratio will have to give way, so let the fight commence.

 

Range:            6025  to  6100      or      6100  to  6225 

Activity:          Strong

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

The NDX November expiry looks as sparse as the SPX one, however here it is not that unusual.

Although we must say October was an especially quiet expiry, at least so far, with the big players staying away and even relatively few strike additions, and this does not bode well for November.

Still early days but we are sharpening our ice skate blades in anticipation of the return to the ice rink analogy.

 

Range:            6025  to  6275                    

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral   

 

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There is no arguing about that (high 22905) being a test of R3 in the DJX on Friday.

Furthermore, it was one of those that took all the wind out of this index’s sails as it never even ventured close for the remainder of the day.

The start of the rollover should clarify motivations and for us the only question is whether or not that was strike 2 or 3.

No change in the ratios and interestingly the NZ has stayed down at 22300-22500, so game on as they say and activity here is the polar opposite of the SPX’s.

 

Range:            22500  to  22900    

Activity:          Poor

Type:               Bearish

 

 

 

 

The first look at the DJX’s November expiry and at a glance one can see as it stands it could be very good for the bulls.

This of course makes the rollover and expiry very important in Oct and how they cope with R3.

However, it is worth pointing out the difference in the NZ levels which has come about as here it hasn’t fallen back.

 

Range:           22700  to  22900

Activity:         Did not register

Type:              N/A

 

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Posted in Uncategorized

October 16th, 2017 by Richard

FTSE Oct to Nov Rollover 16th Oct 2017

 

 

Five-week expiries always feel a long time and this is no exception but here we are at last entering the rollover and expiry week.

They did a very admirable job on Friday in the FTSE clawing all the way back up to R3 which was then at 7550 by the close only for some reason to take their foot off the pedal.

The auction wiped off a massive 16.72-points and basically undid all the hard work as that is roughly where we thought the market actually opened, rather than the misleading official level.

As one can see today it is all change but the rollover influence should start to kick in and we would therefore be expecting it to gravitate towards its zone for Wednesday.

However, it seems like the “amber gambler” may be back in town and if our suspicions are correct then we may be looking at 7500.

 

Range:            7450  to  7600

Activity:          Average

Type:               Bearish

 

 

 

The first look at how the November expiry in the FTSE is shaping up is interesting as we get the welcome return of some Y ratio.

At the moment the zones are in sync but from what we are seeing it should move to 7450-7550 and possibly as soon as tomorrow.

Otherwise it looks fairly evenly balanced in respect of the depth of the ratios but with so much Y ratio around there is the mouth-watering possibility of a trading range from 7150 all the way up to 7650, but we stress it is still very early days yet.

 

Range:          7450  to  7650

Activity:        Strong

Type:             On balance decidedly bearish

 

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This will be a big week for the DAX as it has to decide whether to be compliant or fall prey to the excitement the increased level of equity activity this period generates.

This will be a lot harder than it appears as this index toyed with its NZ for the first three days of this expiry then has steadfastly been above it for the remainder, so far at least.

The ratios have begun to move up below the zone at last, but more importantly they have strengthened above it with R2 coming in to 13300.

However, the last three closes have been 12970, 12982 and 12991 which is bizarre with it being amid so much minimal Y ratio, so add the rollover into the mix and it makes for a very potent brew.

 

Range:            12850  to  13150

Activity:          Average

Type:               On balance only just bearish

 

 

 

The first aspect we noted for the November expiry was the difference in the NZ.

The second aspect was (again) how little ratio there was, so combine these two and it will sort itself out for sure.

We must of course point out that this index is a notoriously slow starter so this low level of ratio is normal, but also this is one of the only 4 expiries that are back to back intermediary ones and so by definition are lower than others, which are all book-ended by a triple.

 

Range:           12750  to  13250

Activity:         Moderate

Type:              On balance just fractionally bullish

 

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Posted in Uncategorized