Category: Uncategorized
October 13th, 2017 by Richard
This is the first move in R1 this week in the SPX so it did well to hold out for so long.
However, we must say that even this new level is only just clinging on to R1 and we would anticipate quite early on it slipping further to 2565.
A measure of how weak the ratios are above the zone is the fact that R3 has gone altogether, but, and although far less dramatic, the ratios are also weaker below the zone.
So, it continues to open up for the SPX but the rollover starts next week and there are the other two to consider, but left to its own devices it does look bullish here.
Range: 2505 to 2560 / 2565
Activity Moderate
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
What we said yesterday is just as applicable today; “That was a very significant move in the NDX yesterday for two reasons.”
Firstly, the close below Y2 was hard fought so all the more meaningful for it.
Secondly, the high was 6093.75 which is close enough to be a test of the next multiple of 25.
To further complicate the issue the NZ has moved up here as well, which was always a distinct possibility up to the old “step-up” level of 6025.
So, again the open is crucial but at least the target for Wednesday is now less onerous.
Range: 6025 to 6075 or 6075 to 6225
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Well we certainly didn’t see this coming as the DJX’s NZ reverts back to 22300-22500.
How significant this is will only become clear over the next couple of days as it could just be a twitch, sort of an overnight B&B and it could flip back Monday.
Or if it is genuine then 22700 loses its significance but our target for Wednesday now becomes 400-points due south.
In the meantime, there is no doubt that yesterday’s high of 22884 was a test of the R ratio so the only question is whether this was strike one or two.
But no disguising the market now knows it is there, perhaps not too sure the depth of it, so it looks like another crunch day but with the floor a lot lower now.
Range: 22500 to 22900
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bullish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 13th, 2017 by Richard
The FTSE was listening it seems and took to heart it being all about R3 as they played around with it all day.
The initial break (which was strike 3 after all) came at midday then they held just above it for the rest of the day, which was hard work so hat’s off to them.
There was a little scare in the auction when it tested 7550 but at the end it actually added one and a half points.
Last day today before the rollover and then a whole new set of influences take over so if they thought yesterday was tough then they may well be in for a surprise, and anyway carrying on in itself will be difficult enough ploughing through R3.
Range: 7450 to 7550 or 7550 to 7700
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance decidedly bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
After the move up in the DAX’s NZ we would hope that the ratios below this new level would start to fill in.
They are stronger but no moves, however the ratios above the zone have weakened considerably, not that there was much there to begin with.
We can only repeat that it may on the surface look fine but if one imagines that if they got as aggressive here as in London and took on R3 then this index could quite literally go anywhere.
A sobering thought is that pre- QE this index happily traded up and down to DR before reversing and was easily the more aggressive of the two.
Range: 12850 to 13150
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 12th, 2017 by Richard
The SPX has been tailgating R1 for the last two weeks and by that we mean the daily high has been on R1 and as it has receded the high has crept higher.
Back on the 2nd Oct R1 was at 2530 and the high was 2529.23, then high 2535.13 (R1 2535), 2540.53 (2540), on Thursday 5th it broke through but that Friday returned to normal with the high 2549.41 (R1 2550).
This week it only got as high as 2551.82 on Monday but R1 has held steady at 2555 and the highs on the next 2 days were 2555.23 and 2555.24.
However, what sets yesterday apart (apart from it coincidentally being Thursday) is it also closed right on R1.
This makes today’s open crucial and as we said this index wants to play and it has opened up for it but it may not be down to just them.
Range: 2505 to 2555
Activity Moderate
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
That was a very significant move in the NDX yesterday for two reasons.
Firstly, it hit Y2 again, low 6052.44, which was strike 3 and it held.
Secondly, it closed above 6075, and we always say if this index is in ratio it is uncomfortable with depending on the open it will trade in a range based on multiples of 25, and today with the move in Y2 it remains above it.
Albeit just and this makes today’s open even more critical, and also our comments below re the DJX also apply here.
Finally, and very odd but they added just a single strike, which is weird in itself (intended) but also there have hardly been many at all this expiry, so doubly strange.
Range: 5975 to 6075 or 6075 to 6225
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance only just bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Was that “crunch day” for the DJX or not is the $100 question?
There is no easy answer as the close was the high and that alone makes it suspect on top of which it is the first intermediary expiry in the 4th quarter so fair value couldn’t be more extreme.
Having said that it came within 28-points of the R ratio which is just 0.12% on such a large index.
The fact activity has returned suggests to us that some saw it, perhaps even recognised it, so we are going to call that strike 1.
Range: 22700 to 22900
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 12th, 2017 by Richard
FTSE and DAX Ratio Table 12th Oct 2017
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
No doubt at all about that test of R3 in the FTSE as the top of the market was 7550.17 yesterday.
In fact, on Tuesday the high was 7543.88 and 6.22-points (0.08%) on a seven-thousand-point index is also close enough so really yesterdays was strike 2.
The only change today is DR reverts back to 7700 so it is now all about how many futures they are willing to absorb to get past R3 and the fact the rollover is now just a day away.
Range: 7450 to 7550
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance not bullish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
And there it goes as the NZ in the DAX doesn’t just move up but rather leaps 300-points.
It just remains to be seen today whether or not this will act as a catalyst or not.
Essentially none of the other ratio levels have changed but it does make it very obvious now above the zone with just the two.
However, our concern is still the vast amount of Y ratio present and just because the market is treading water it shouldn’t distract from the fact that there is a huge risk here with the corresponding R1 still 800-points below, but we are sure the powers that be will know all about it, not.
Range: 12850 to 13050
Activity: Average
Type: On balance just bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 11th, 2017 by Richard
The SPX is back to tailgating R1 getting as high as 2555.23 yesterday.
Once that was hit very early on and there was no desire to push through and that pretty much ended the day’s action.
As we said when this index wanted to play no one else did and this inertia yesterday seems to have been the final straw because today you can see from the activity and ratios that is a lot of (bullish) money coming off the table now, more than likely in frustration.
Although R1 hasn’t moved R2 has and R3 quite considerably so, which does open it up a lot above but we feel it really needs or wants someone to play with.
Range: 2505 to 2555
Activity Average
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
The NDX started well opening up 20-points but that of course meant it was still in Y2 ratio which hadn’t shifted.
Again, they evidently found this going too hard and with the low of 6036.72 this now makes that strike 2 at Y2.
They almost broke through yesterday and so if it goes there again today and as this would be strike 3 then it should succeed this time.
Again, the open is crucial and again why we have two trading ranges.
Range: 5975 to 6050 or 6050 to 6200
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Hopefully today will be crunch day for the DJX as it has been slowly slipping down the activity ladder.
So much so it has reached the bottom of the scale by our measure and only for the third time this expiry, although to be fair there have been three “only just registered” as well.
Therefore, hopefully it will hit the R ratios today and that will stimulate activity.
Range: 22700 to 22900
Activity: Did not registered
Type: N/A
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 11th, 2017 by Richard
The problem for the FTSE this expiry was that it started with R2 either side of its NZ, so if it wanted to go anywhere it had to be bold and brazen.
Especially after the Sept expiry when it spent every day inside its zone apart from the last two, the grey area anyway, so it must have been desperate as well.
The first 2 days of this expiry it was interacting with R3 around 7200/7250 (low 7215.47) and fast forward through almost 4 weeks and here we are just shy of R3 at 7550.
Therefore, it just remains to be seen if it finishes in its zone on Wednesday next week.
Range: 7450 to 7550
Activity: Poor
Type: Not bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Well at least the move yesterday in the DAX was original and not a repeat of the day before.
Obviously, we view the fact it closed right on Y2 as significant but the fact remains this index should be easily covering more ground than just 70-points.
We can’t see the NZ not moving up now, in fact it is amazing it has held steadfast for so long, however when it does this may just break this impasse.
It has tangled with R1, but last week when it was at 12950, ironically where it is now of course, but as we have said before it is on a cliff edge if it loses its forward momentum so a rising zone will certainly help but is also not the cure.
Range: 12550 to 13050
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 10th, 2017 by Richard
The problem is that the day the SPX comes out to play everybody else is heading in for tea.
For us that is essentially what happened yesterday and this index didn’t even manage to continue tailgating R1, only getting as high as 2551.82.
The only ratios to change are DR below the zone and R3 above it and activity suggests today that after yesterday having set the scene so well they are now rather disappointed.
However, just like Europe, this index is easily capable of some serious moves, and if the ratios above the zone resume their retreat it could be either way.
Range: 2505 to 2555
Activity Very poor
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
There was no doubt in the NDX as their low was 6051.32 which was definitely a test of Y2 and the bottom of our trading range.
This makes today’s open crucial and the reason why we have two ranges as depending on where it opens dictates which range it will be in.
As it stands it now know that every time it tries to move ahead it faces battling through Y2 and now it also knows where the bottom is, so decision time.
Please note that here activity has remained high and still very one-sided so plenty of interest and expectation still.
Range: 5975 to 6050 or 6050 to 6200
Activity: Strong
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
That was very close in the DJX getting as low as 22739 but we can’t call it a test of the upper boundary.
The fact it languished in the middle of what is a very narrow trading range so it didn’t really do anyone any favours and we think activity today reflects this.
Eventually it will have to test one end or the other (or the ratios change) and we will see then whether it has re-joined the ranks of the rational.
Range: 22700 to 22900
Activity: Only just registered
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 10th, 2017 by Richard
The FTSE didn’t repeat last Thursday’s aggression and was actually very timid restricting itself to a 30-point range.
We are in the countdown to the rollover next week so it will not stay quiet for sure and with activity ticking over there is certainly enough interest as well.
No change in any of the ratios and the market has had an entire day to work out 7500 is no longer R3 so the stage is definitely set all it needs is just a little spark.
Range: 7450 to 7550
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bullish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
That was a bit eerie in the DAX yesterday as it was so similar to Friday.
Open yesterday 12975, on Friday 12979, the high was 12996 and on Friday 12993 with the low coming in at 12943 against 12941.
However, for us it is still in an enormous Y ratio bandwidth so it should easily be doing more than twice the 50-point range it has managed over the last two days.
Also with the ratios continuing to recede above the zone the resistance ahead is minimal and how the NZ has not started moving up is a mystery as well.
Basically, the one thing this index should not be doing is staying still.
Range: 12550 to 13050
Activity: Poor
Type: Neutral
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 9th, 2017 by Richard
SPX , NDX and DJX Ratio Table 9th Oct 2017
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
There is a lot happening in the SPX but before we get into that don’t forget the rollover isn’t until next week, so these are big moves at this stage in the expiry.
The main change is the NZ which jumps to 2495-2505 and although not unexpected it is still dramatic.
The accompanying strength in the ratios below the zone and weakness above gives it three bullish marks today.
However, having said that on Friday the market resumed tailgating R1 only getting as high as 2549.41.
R1 is at 2555 today, which was R2 on Friday, so this perhaps gives some measure of the ratio weakness here.
Range: 2505 to 2555
Activity Average
Type: On balance bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
The NDX is the only one who’s NZ hasn’t changed and we suspect this is because they were already so far ahead of it.
The open was easier and below Y2 but the morning saw quite a tussle and it was soon evident that the bulls were not going to lie down.
However, as the ratios above the zone haven’t changed they will have to work very hard just to push ahead and activity suggests this battle is far from over.
Range: 5975 to 6050 or 6050 to 6200
Activity: Outstanding
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
The DJX’s NZ has also moved, it was flagged but we may not have mentioned it as much as we would have liked.
However, this does make 22700 a very critical level now as if it breaks back into its zone it has 200 points of no ratio underneath.
Furthermore, this would lend weight to our suspicion that this market is at last returning to normal.
On top of which, quite literally as well, we have the R ratios getting very close so it is getting a very tight range in this index now, and it may well prove to be the catalyst.
It is also worth pointing out activity is very one-sided, which is the opposite of last Thursday, so perhaps it may be worth being a little wary of the open.
Range: 22700 to 22900
Activity: Very strong
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
October 9th, 2017 by Richard
On Friday in the FTSE it was the exact replica of last Wednesday the day after they sneaked above 7450 right at the close aided and abetted by the auction.
However, this time it was above 7500 (Thursday) and yet again it resulted in a 20-point range, so if it follows the pattern the aggression should return today.
Although the ratios have changed, more specifically 7500 is now R2, so without moving anywhere this market now finds itself in a 100-point R2 ratio bandwidth.
Therefore, if they do try it they will find nothing in their path until R3 which no doubt will come (again) as an unpleasant surprise.
Worth pointing out that there is also nothing in their path down to 7450.
Range: 7450 to 7550
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
The DAX returned to a positive open but thereafter didn’t really capitalise on being back in the Y ratios.
Admittedly it was better than on Thursday but not by very much and considering the potential it was downright disappointing.
R1 remains the same but R2 slips out to 13200 with very little movement below the zone.
The story here is why hasn’t the NZ moved up and as it is in a 500-point Y ratio bandwidth how is not whiplashing around in triple digits.
Range: 12550 to 13050
Activity: Good
Type: On balance bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
