FTSE and DAX today’s rollover ratio levels and comment

The FTSE just can’t seem to break through 7550 and today it is unchanged at R2.

Despite this or probably more accurately because of this addiction to 7550 we have to admit that having got the low and high for this expiry the final piece of the forecast, being in the NZ, is obviously a miss.

We now enter the grey area where we generally say anything can happen and normally does just like the last expiry, but this is the case if it complies with being in its zone for the rollover as when it misses it can result in unfinished business that brings a far greater degree of emphasis on the actual expiry itself.

They did try to knock it in the auction again yesterday but failed, so it will be a critical start today having closed so close to the all-important 7550.

Range:            7450  to  7550      or       7550  to  7600

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bearish

We can’t help but feel November is the true reflection of where the NZ should be in October but it had a mountain of ratio to shift to let that happen, and the return of the “amber gambler” probably didn’t help this either.

From here on in this expiry can exert its influence but as this still has a lot of Y ratio present we suspect this may not amount to much even if it does.

Range:          7450  to  7550

Activity:        Poor

Type:             Neutral

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In an expiry full of surprises in the DAX one last twist is probably only to be expected.

Rather strangely the ratios are stronger above the zone and weaker below it, both bearish, but more importantly it means no change in the NZ.

Only on the first day of this expiry did this index play with its zone thereafter it was powering up through all the Y ratio.

So, we didn’t call the low as it never went below its NZ but we did call the high which at the time was a big call as the market was 12550 (upper boundary of its NZ incidentally) and R1 was at 12850 which moved to 12900 and of course is way past that now.

Of course, we have missed on the market being in its NZ yesterday for the rollover but as it is in Y1 we are not that troubled, especially considering the extent of the move.

Range:            12850  to  13200

Activity:          Moderate

Type:               Bullish

Hardly any change in November and what there was is strength in R1 below the zone as it comes in a bit, but worryingly R1 above the zone slips out and weakness now really is not good.

However, we are continuing to see 12950-13050 as the next potential NZ and hopefully it will decide one way or the other soon as any delay only serves to stunt development, and time is fast running out.

Range:           12750  to  13300

Activity:         Moderate

Type:              Bullish

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