Category: Uncategorized

August 10th, 2022 by Richard

Well, so far, it certainly has been one for the bulls, but what's next is the real question now?

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/26/22

 

Well, so far it has definitely been the case that this “expiry might actually turn out as one for the bulls”.

On Monday 18th, the first day of this expiry, the intraday low was 3818.63, another test of Y2 at 3820. Since then, and after we highlighted the stubbornness of the August zone, the market closed on Thursday 21st at 3998.95, right in it. Not bad that, 4.6% in as many days, and why we feel slightly vindicated about our comments.

The question is, what happens next?

It was all done rather hastily, and let’s face it, there is still 4-weeks to go in this expiry.

The intraday high on Friday was 4012.44, and we mention this as there is some doubt as whether or not this was a test of Y2. The reason is, that Y2 after the 19th had moved down to 4015 but, on the Friday, actually slipped back out to 4020, before moving back for today.

If it was a test, then that is the market having performed a complete Y1 bandwidth test.

The fact that it is now almost 100-points below this, suggests that it was in fact a test.

Generally, this means the market languishing for a while in this bandwidth.

However, if one compares where the ratios were on the 19th to where they are today, then it is obvious that they are strengthening on both sides of the zone.

If this continues at the same pace, then the zone will have to move, and downwards.

The prognosis is that everything now rests on how the ratios now evolve. If they continue to strengthen as they are above the zone, this will eventually force it down. Or will the ratios below the zone get enough support to keep it up.

Whichever side wins this new battle, we suspect will then dominate the rest of this expiry. But, don’t lose sight of the fact that the Y1 ratio bandwidth is now only 170-points, whereas the overall Y ratio bandwidth is still a massive 460-points. So, although these are a lot narrower than they have been, they are still plenty wide enough to satisfy most traders.

 

Range:            3845  to  3995           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

Nb. Our comment for 08/10/22

 

As we said, this one (expiry) may be one for the bulls, and so it has with a whopping rise of 7.96% so far.

In fact, if you go from the expiry high of 4186.62 it is actually 9.64%…and not many others saw this coming back on 18th July when this expiry started.

But, more importantly, is what might happen next?

The first aspect we have noted is that activity is going through a normal mid-expiry doldrum. While this is quite common, it does mean a degree of loss of control by the derivatives.

The second aspect to note is that, despite such a huge Y ratio bandwidth, the zone hasn’t moved, and more interestingly, not made any sign that it is likely to.

Thirdly, and this holds true in any expiry, don’t get fooled into believing any 4th Estate hyperbole about what is driving this market. There isn’t anything. It is simply because there is no ratio to speak of to get in the way. Although, almost 10% is a very long way we concede, so we understand why they have to try to label it, but it was nothing that wasn’t seen as possible meaning that the reason was also foreseeable.

Bearing these three aspects in mind, one might want to now consider that the rollover and expiry are next week.

Therefore, activity will pick up, so will volatility in all likelihood, and this will then determine if the zone remains steadfast, or looks likely to adapt.

In the meantime, it is worth remembering that this index is in Y2 ratio. Not difficult to handle, but with low activity, it would certainly make things uncomfortable.

Both Y2 and R1 have been higher, 4105 and 4255 respectively, so where they stand today is actually them strengthening, adding weight to the zone remaining where it is.

Bearing all this in mind, and as things stand, we have to start thinking about this index returning to its zone for next week.

The all-important question, is will the zone shift in the meantime?

 

Range:            4005  to  4230           

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Neutral

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August 8th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE uses up all the Y Ratio bandwidth to 7450, but there is still 2 weeks to go.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/25/2022

As the FTSE returns to its more usual Monday slot, there are a few interesting things going on.

The main one being this markets insistence on staying above its zone, and therefore in bullish territory. The real test was on Thursday when the intraday low was 7200.14, and the real time close was 7257.98. 7-points is nothing to the closing auction, so it could easily have finished back inside its zone, but it chose to turn a 6-point deficit on the day to a 6-point gain, closing at 7270.51 (after an extended auction as well).

The second interesting aspect is that above the zone there is 200-points of the minimal Y1 ratio, and yet here it is just 26-points above the upper boundary.

This seems a lot of effort and considerable expense to go to and not take advantage of this essentially open space.

Then there is the fact that Y2 above the zone has gone, and been replaced by R1, a considerable strengthening. And yet, R2 has slipped 100-point, from 7550 to 7650, and R3 has gone, a considerable weakening.

Luckily below the zone it is a bit more conventional, but no mistake, above it is somewhat contradictory.

Finally, although the “type” of activity has come in as neutral, this is because as much money has been taken off the table on both sides. The interesting aspect of this is that this is when this 5-week expiry is just but days old, so really rather rare to see.

Now we are into the more normal 4-week timeline, things may start to become clearer but, in the absence of anything concrete, it is exactly as we said last week.

As it is above its zone the bulls have the edge, and it is clear all the way up to 7450 but, the upper boundary of the zone (7250) remains critical, and don’t lose sight of all that Y ratio below the zone as that makes the potential overall trading range for the next four weeks 7000 up to 7450. Enjoy.

 

Range:            7250  to  7450      

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral

Nb. Our comment on 08/08/22

 

Why waste time? Which is exactly the attitude of the FTSE at the moment.

Since our last comment, please see above, where we mentioned it had gone to a lot of effort to stay in bullish territory above its zone and that it was clear all the way up to 7450…it has just powered on up until it hit aforementioned 7450.

During the course of this journey, it has also moved the zone up.

This we see as a natural move, occasioned by the lack of ratio in that huge Y ratio bandwidth that was there a couple of weeks ago, rather than any great bullish manipulation.

To underline this point, below the zone, OK 7050 has gone from Y2 to R1, but otherwise R2, R3 and DR have all remained static.

Admittedly, above the zone, the ratios have slipped, but they were doing that two weeks ago, and anyway, with the huge move in this market this is by and large a natural by-product of this.

So, what next?

Well, 7450 is the new critical level. Now because it is the top boundary of the zone but, previously, it was because it was R1.

Don’t forget at the start of this expiry 7450 was Y2, then became R1, so this is it just retuning to where it came from.

However, the difference now to two weeks ago, is that Wednesday’s intraday high and close was 7445, Thursday’s close was 7448 and Friday’s 7439. All inside the zone.

There is still two weeks to go, but the market is certainly not as aggressive as it was a fortnight ago. There is still some upside, R1 now starting at 7550, but there is also now a lot of downside. Apart from the actual zone of course, the corresponding R1 is all the way down there at 7050, so the risk: reward ratio has changed considerably now, at least for us that is.

 

Range:            7350  to  7450      

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Neutral

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July 26th, 2022 by Richard

A ratio battle now looms for control of the SPX for the rest of the Aug expiry.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/19/22

 

We have to start the comment on the August expiry with one final one on the July, where the final resting spot for the zone was in fact 3800. Therefore, the settlement price of 3839.81 was about as close as they needed to be. In fact, we did say it was not so much about where the July expiry ended, but rather about keeping a lid on the potential volatility, which certainly seemed to be the case for us. Job done then.

Moving on to August, and as the SPX closed last Friday at 3863.16, it was happily in the new Y1 ratio bandwidth already.

Although, a point to note is that the intraday low on Friday was 3817.18, and yesterday, 3818.63, both right on Y2.

However, the really interesting aspect between the two expiries is that the zone did not make any significant attempt to join with the July level, staying stubbornly at 4000.

So, if Y2 can hold, then the August expiry might actually turn out as one for the bulls.

Also, R1 at 3695, as it stands, is a very solid level, so the downside has some far more significant support not that far away.

On the other side, we have already mentioned the zone being at 4000, then Y2 comes very quickly after that but, it is a very long way above this before you get to the R1 resistance ratio.

Another little pointer, our Delta Ratio, is currently standing at 49.3%, where a reading below 50% is considered bullish.

It is a 5-week expiry, so even longer than normal to go, and the first week of these extended expiries can be somewhat slow to develop, so caution perfectly understandably but, as the ratios are now aligned, there is definitely more upside potential than downside.

 

Range:            3820  to  3995           

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 07/26/22

 

Well, so far it has definitely been the case that this “expiry might actually turn out as one for the bulls”.

On Monday 18th, the first day of this expiry, the intraday low was 3818.63, another test of Y2 at 3820. Since then, and after we highlighted the stubbornness of the August zone, the market closed on Thursday 21st at 3998.95, right in it. Not bad that, 4.6% in as many days, and why we feel slightly vindicated about our comments.

The question is, what happens next?

It was all done rather hastily, and let’s face it, there is still 4-weeks to go in this expiry.

The intraday high on Friday was 4012.44, and we mention this as there is some doubt as whether or not this was a test of Y2. The reason is, that Y2 after the 19th had moved down to 4015 but, on the Friday, actually slipped back out to 4020, before moving back for today.

If it was a test, then that is the market having performed a complete Y1 bandwidth test.

The fact that it is now almost 100-points below this, suggests that it was in fact a test.

Generally, this means the market languishing for a while in this bandwidth.

However, if one compares where the ratios were on the 19th to where they are today, then it is obvious that they are strengthening on both sides of the zone.

If this continues at the same pace, then the zone will have to move, and downwards.

The prognosis is that everything now rests on how the ratios now evolve. If they continue to strengthen as they are above the zone, this will eventually force it down. Or will the ratios below the zone get enough support to keep it up.

Whichever side wins this new battle, we suspect will then dominate the rest of this expiry. But, don’t lose sight of the fact that the Y1 ratio bandwidth is now only 170-points, whereas the overall Y ratio bandwidth is still a massive 460-points. So, although these are a lot narrower than they have been, they are still plenty wide enough to satisfy most traders.

 

Range:            3845  to  3995           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance only just bearish

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July 25th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE has a very wide potential trading range for the August expiry

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/20/2022

Firstly, our final comment on the July expiry where the zone did move down to 7150-7250, meaning that 7150 remained a critical level, but now for two reasons. The EDSP was 7134.13, so close and a sterling effort, but still a smidgen shy. Interestingly, the market actually closed at 7159.01.

So, the first day of the August expiry for the FTSE was all about its zone.

The fact that the intraday high was 7268.88 just hides the fact that this index had many hours in a running battle with 7250, the top boundary of its zone.

And as one can see in the table above, above the zone it is only Y1, so to hold the market back at all meant it was punching above its weight.

Worth noting is the fact, that as things stand, Y2 does not even start until 7450, so there is ample room for this market to go ahead into, if it so desires.

However, and especially for those who have read our comment on the SPX yesterday, the difference in the FTSE is that the corresponding Y2 and R1 ratio levels below the zone are 400 and 500-points away respectively.

That is a long way, particularly for this index.

This is also a 5-week expiry, so the first week can be deemed a bit superfluous, and if this is the case then we haven’t seen this expiry true colours yet.

All we can say, is that London has plenty of scope as things stand, to make a significant move, but in either direction.

The fact it has elected to go above its zone and into bullish territory certainly gives further moves in the same direction the upper hand, but don’t lose sight of the risks.

 

Range:            7250  to  7450      

Activity:          Strong

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/25/22

 

As the FTSE returns to its more usual Monday slot, there are a few interesting things going on.

The main one being this markets insistence on staying above its zone, and therefore in bullish territory. The real test was on Thursday when the intraday low was 7200.14, and the real time close was 7257.98. 7-points is nothing to the closing auction, so it could easily have finished back inside its zone, but it chose to turn a 6-point deficit on the day to a 6-point gain, closing at 7270.51 (after an extended auction as well).

The second interesting aspect is that above the zone there is 200-points of the minimal Y1 ratio, and yet here it is just 26-points above the upper boundary.

This seems a lot of effort and considerable expense to go to and not take advantage of this essentially open space.

Then there is the fact that Y2 above the zone has gone, and been replaced by R1, a considerable strengthening. And yet, R2 has slipped 100-point, from 7550 to 7650, and R3 has gone, a considerable weakening.

Luckily below the zone it is a bit more conventional, but no mistake, above it is somewhat contradictory.

Finally, although the “type” of activity has come in as neutral, this is because as much money has been taken off the table on both sides. The interesting aspect of this is that this is when this 5-week expiry is just but days old, so really rather rare to see.

Now we are into the more normal 4-week timeline, things may start to become clearer but, in the absence of anything concrete, it is exactly as we said last week.

As it is above its zone the bulls have the edge, and it is clear all the way up to 7450 but, the upper boundary of the zone (7250) remains critical, and don’t lose sight of all that Y ratio below the zone as that makes the potential overall trading range for the next four weeks 7000 up to 7450. Enjoy.

 

Range:            7250  to  7450      

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral

Available to buy now

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July 20th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE starts the Aug expiry well, but there is little ratio...either way.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/18/2022 (Not published)

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/20/22

 

Firstly, our final comment on the July expiry where the zone did move down to 7150-7250, meaning that 7150 remained a critical level, but now for two reasons. The EDSP was 7134.13, so close and a sterling effort, but still a smidgen shy. Interestingly, the market actually closed at 7159.01.

So, the first day of the August expiry for the FTSE was all about its zone.

The fact that the intraday high was 7268.88 just hides the fact that this index had many hours in a running battle with 7250, the top boundary of its zone.

And as one can see in the table above, above the zone it is only Y1, so to hold the market back at all meant it was punching above its weight.

Worth noting is the fact, that as things stand, Y2 does not even start until 7450, so there is ample room for this market to go ahead into, if it so desires.

However, and especially for those who have read our comment on the SPX yesterday, the difference in the FTSE is that the corresponding Y2 and R1 ratio levels below the zone are 400 and 500-points away respectively.

That is a long way, particularly for this index.

This is also a 5-week expiry, so the first week can be deemed a bit superfluous, and if this is the case then we haven’t seen this expiry true colours yet.

All we can say, is that London has plenty of scope as things stand, to make a significant move, but in either direction.

The fact it has elected to go above its zone and into bullish territory certainly gives further moves in the same direction the upper hand, but don’t lose sight of the risks.

 

Range:            7250  to  7450      

Activity:          Strong

Type:              Neutral

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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July 19th, 2022 by Richard

Could the SPX Aug expiry turn out to be one for the bulls?

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/15/22 (Not published)

 

Nb. Our comment for 07/19/22

 

We have to start the comment on the August expiry with one final one on the July, where the final resting spot for the zone was in fact 3800. Therefore, the settlement price of 3839.81 was about as close as they needed to be. In fact, we did say it was not so much about where the July expiry ended, but rather about keeping a lid on the potential volatility, which certainly seemed to be the case for us. Job done then.

Moving on to August, and as the SPX closed last Friday at 3863.16, it was happily in the new Y1 ratio bandwidth already.

Although, a point to note is that the intraday low on Friday was 3817.18, and yesterday, 3818.63, both right on Y2.

However, the really interesting aspect between the two expiries is that the zone did not make any significant attempt to join with the July level, staying stubbornly at 4000.

So, if Y2 can hold, then the August expiry might actually turn out as one for the bulls.

Also, R1 at 3695, as it stands, is a very solid level, so the downside has some far more significant support not that far away.

On the other side, we have already mentioned the zone being at 4000, then Y2 comes very quickly after that but, it is a very long way above this before you get to the R1 resistance ratio.

Another little pointer, our Delta Ratio, is currently standing at 49.3%, where a reading below 50% is considered bullish.

It is a 5-week expiry, so even longer than normal to go, and the first week of these extended expiries can be somewhat slow to develop, so caution perfectly understandably but, as the ratios are now aligned, there is definitely more upside potential than downside.

 

Range:            3820  to  3995           

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance bearish

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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July 12th, 2022 by Richard

Volatility to worsen as the R1 safety net drops in the SPX

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/05/22

 

Well, it took a while with the market interacting with R1 at 3745 before “the money normally rises to the top” came about.

The fact that the first two days of this expiry, despite intraday lows deep inside the R1 bandwidth, always closed above 3745 gave a glimmer of hope.

The Thursday 23rd therefore could have gone either way, it being strike three at 3745, but a strong opening followed by the intraday low of 3743.52 just set the scene for the Friday.

We would like to have seen this market get back up to its zone, like the FTSE100, before capitulating, but we can’t have everything we suppose.

And last week, the last two days returned us back to literally where we were on the first two days of this expiry. The intraday lows being 3738.67 and 3752.10, yet again testing R1 at 3745.

It might not be Thursday 23rd again, but it might as well be, as it is looking increasingly likely that today we will see a further test of R1. This is some resolute defence going on here, as once again this is strike three.

Naturally R1 has weakened after such a prolonged assault, and the picture is further complicated by the second US holiday falling within this expiry, and so we would not expect 3745 to remain R1 by tomorrow, and probably not even by the end of today.

For a more robust R1, and at a commensurate level to the first week, you have to be looking at 3720, or at a pinch 3730.

In essence, should the market go there yet again, it goes in full knowledge of what to expect, and is therefore not frightened by that, or it pulls up short, pretty much for the same reason.

Don’t forget, last week having hit R1 this market rallied 47 and the 73-points respectively, so the bulls are far from dead, but at the same time, hardly galvanised either. Apologies it’s not more definite, but today or tomorrow should go a long way to sorting out who wants to be in charge for the remainder of this expiry we suspect.

 

Range:            3745  to  3995           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Neutral

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 07/12/22

 

Well, that was some test, or should we say examination, of R1 at 3745 last Tuesday 5th. The market basically spent the entire morning flatlining on R1, before eventually the bulls gained control. In fact, it was so impressive, that even after a multitude of tests, the intraday low was still only 3742.06.

The trouble is that the bulls, although happy to capitalise on the support generated by the R1 dynamic delta, they still can’t quite muster enough enthusiasm to really push ahead, and get this market back up to its zone.

And that is the problem, but with an added twist for the derivative players, as this expiry ends this week, so they are literally running out of time.

Up until today, the pertinent ratios hadn’t changed from when we last published.

So, R1 has remained at 3745, with Y2 at 3895.

Of course, as you can readily see in the above table, this has changed significantly today.

Basically, derivatives have blinked first.

In fact, so much so, that there are four candidates to being the potential new zone, each having lost almost 50% of their ratio value.

Therefore, as it stands, the Y1 ratio bandwidth below the zone now stretches from 3795 all the way up to 3995.

And, the “resolute” R1 has dropped to 3695.

Essentially, no one is going to get badly hurt, even if this index expires in the Y2 ratio bandwidth but, with so little ratio around it could get extremely volatile.

And not only is this terribly difficult to control, but with a falling R1, the safety net has also been lowered.

We think this particular expiry now will not be so much about where it finishes, but rather keeping it calm and rational.

 

Range:            3695  to  3995           

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance bullish

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July 11th, 2022 by Richard

Still a lot to play for as the FTSE enters its final week of the July expiry.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/04/2022

“Big call” indeed, as the FTSE had to dig itself out of the R3 ratio hole it had dug itself into first.

By which we mean the open on the very day we last published, the 22nd June, when the market opened below 7150 and really looked in a very sorry state.

Sadly, we just don’t know when 7150 changed from R3 to R2, but whenever it was, this was always the crucial level.

Still is, as having gone all the way back up to its zone’s bottom boundary, at 7350, here we are back at R2 again.

That failure, on the 28th and 29th, when the intraday highs were 7362.37 and 7345.45 respectively, was very damaging for the bulls. Therefore, the fact that the market closes on Thursday and Friday last week were all about 7150 again, should have come as no surprise.

The fact that the Y1 ratio bandwidth below the zone is 200-points wide, also accounts for the big moves, essentially from 7350 to 7150.

So, although it may have appeared exciting at the time, in essence this market has gone absolutely nowhere in two weeks.

Definitely more troubling for the bulls, as not breaking back up into its zone at 7350 shows a worrying lack of commitment from them. Whereas the bears, have been happy to make deep intraday inroads into the R2 ratio bandwidth. However, both are now on strike three from last week alone.

As we are now just at the half way stage of this expiry, there is ample time left. So, although the market hasn’t really moved in the last two weeks, it does now know where the pertinent levels are. Therefore, game on, we think.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7350      

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance only just bullish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/11/22

 

On the day of our last comment (4/7/22) we thought R2 had done the trick again, with the market finishing up 64-points that day.

Sadly, the very next day, Tuesday 5th, changed the picture entirely, with the huge fall of 207.18-points, which also took the market into the R3 ratio bandwidth.

Obviously, this was one of those instances when equities ruled over derivatives, and the futures buying generated by the dynamic delta had little or no effect.

It does happen, more commonly in those indices with a hundred or less constituents, especially where there are just one or two sectors that account for a disproportionate weighting within the overall index.

For the FTSE on the 5th this was the case with the oil stocks, which all suffered on the back of Brent giving up 10%.

There is absolutely nothing we can do about this, and it is just one of those peculiarities that affect the FTSE.

However, for the brave, it can represent a good opportunity, as generally those equity moments are fleeting, whereas the dynamic delta is there for the length of the expiry.

Naturally, a move like this will shake things up, so the move down in the zone is not altogether surprising. In fact, with such a large Y1 ratio bandwidth below the zone when it was at 7400, it was always a distinct possibility, especially towards the expiry.

7150 is still a key level, although how resilient it will remain after so many tests and breaches, we just don’t know.

The big test for derivatives will be keeping this market inside its new zone for the rollover and expiry, which after the big miss in the June expiry would probably be most welcome. And not that perhaps one might realize, but this index is still up almost 200-points this expiry, so there is a lot to play for still.

 

Range:            7150  to  7250      

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance bullish

Available to buy now

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July 5th, 2022 by Richard

Are we going to see the SPX test R1 at 3745 for the second strike three of this expiry?

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/22/22

 

We can’t not start without mentioning the end of the June expiry, which most certainly proved very expensive for someone.

But despite it getting out of control from a derivative perspective, it did adhere to some ratio levels, so at least the dynamic delta was having an effect right until the end.

Our final trading range was either 3645 to 3745 or 3745 to 3895. The fact that the market failed to close above 3745 when we last published on the 14th was a warning. It still could have made the zone by the Friday, but getting back to 4000 by the next day, rollover Wednesday, was obviously not going to happen. The bottom of that trading range was 3645, and the intraday lows on the Thursday and Friday were 3639.77 and 3636.87 respectively.

Evidently, “derivatives didn’t reassert their authority”.

Anyway, and more importantly, this, the July expiry, and what is the ratio picture telling us for this trip.

And if anything, the enormous Y ratio bandwidths have actually got worse.

Now the Y1 one stands at 260-points, but the overall one is the widest ever, coming in at the humongous 815-points wide.

Perhaps a saving grace, for the bulls at least, is at least this time the market is actually at the bottom of this huge bandwidth.

As we have seen, the dynamic delta denoted by the ratio levels has continued to work, it is really now just a question of who is in charge?

The highly strung emotions of the equity mob, or the money on the table of the derivative players?

Sadly, we can’t answer this question, all we can do is say that historically, once the over-excitement of a triple is over, money normally rises to the top.

 

Range:            3745  to  3995           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Bullish

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 07/05/22

 

Well, it took a while with the market interacting with R1 at 3745 before “the money normally rises to the top” came about.

The fact that the first two days of this expiry, despite intraday lows deep inside the R1 bandwidth, always closed above 3745 gave a glimmer of hope.

The Thursday 23rd therefore could have gone either way, it being strike three at 3745, but a strong opening followed by the intraday low of 3743.52 just set the scene for the Friday.

We would like to have seen this market get back up to its zone, like the FTSE100, before capitulating, but we can’t have everything we suppose.

And last week, the last two days returned us back to literally where we were on the first two days of this expiry. The intraday lows being 3738.67 and 3752.10, yet again testing R1 at 3745.

It might not be Thursday 23rd again, but it might as well be, as it is looking increasingly likely that today we will see a further test of R1. This is some resolute defence going on here, as once again this is strike three.

Naturally R1 has weakened after such a prolonged assault, and the picture is further complicated by the second US holiday falling within this expiry, and so we would not expect 3745 to remain R1 by tomorrow, and probably not even by the end of today.

For a more robust R1, and at a commensurate level to the first week, you have to be looking at 3720, or at a pinch 3730.

In essence, should the market go there yet again, it goes in full knowledge of what to expect, and is therefore not frightened by that, or it pulls up short, pretty much for the same reason.

Don’t forget, last week having hit R1 this market rallied 47 and the 73-points respectively, so the bulls are far from dead, but at they same time, hardly galvanised either. Apologies its not more definite, but today or tomorrow should go a long way to sorting out who wants to be in charge for the remainder of this expiry we suspect.

 

Range:            3745  to  3995           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Neutral

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July 4th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE returns to 7150, now R2 but still as critical.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/22/2022

Obviously, there were some huge changes in the ratios in the last few days of the June expiry but, sadly we were not around to record them, so who knows.

The one thing for certain though, is that it must have gotten seriously out of control, as even if June’s zone ended up where July’s has started, it was still a huge miss on Friday as the EDSP was 7108.24.

Not only that, when we shut up shop, B1 was at 7150. Of course, it would have fallen, and considerably so, but there is no escaping that at the end the market would have been amid a considerable amount of ratio. So, very very expensive for someone.

Which brings us round to this new expiry, the July trip.

And, straight from the very start, the FTSE was imbedded deep into some high ratios.

In a triple we always say it gets very heated, and naturally seeks out the higher ratios to compensate for the huge increase in overall activity. However, this is an intermediary, so it should revert back to being sensitive to the low to mid-range R ratios.

And yet, here it was, starting life just a smidgen north of DR. Quite the rude awakening.

Also, we are not overly surprised with the battle that took place all day yesterday at 7150, as this is a very significant level.

One look at the above table tells you that.

In fact, the ratios are so lopsided this expiry, it is now dangerous being short. Foolish not to have at least extremely tight stops.

7150 will decide whether or not this market digs itself out of a ratio mess, and can head back up to its zone, or not. Big call.

 

Range:            6850  to  7150        or        7150  to  7350      

Activity:          Outstanding

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/04/22

 

“Big call” indeed, as the FTSE had to dig itself out of the R3 ratio hole it had dug itself into first.

By which we mean the open on the very day we last published, the 22nd June, when the market opened below 7150 and really looked in a very sorry state.

Sadly, we just don’t know when 7150 changed from R3 to R2, but whenever it was, this was always the crucial level.

Still is, as having gone all the way back up to its zone’s bottom boundary, at 7350, here we are back at R2 again.

That failure, on the 28th and 29th, when the intraday highs were 7362.37 and 7345.45 respectively, was very damaging for the bulls. Therefore, the fact that the market closes on Thursday and Friday last week were all about 7150 again, should have come as no surprise.

The fact that the Y1 ratio bandwidth below the zone is 200-points wide, also accounts for the big moves, essentially from 7350 to 7150.

So, although it may have appeared exciting at the time, in essence this market has gone absolutely nowhere in two weeks.

Definitely more troubling for the bulls, as not breaking back up into its zone at 7350 shows a worrying lack of commitment from them. Whereas the bears, have been happy to make deep intraday inroads into the R2 ratio bandwidth. However, both are now on strike three from last week alone.

As we are now just at the half way stage of this expiry, there is ample time left. So, although the market hasn’t really moved in the last two weeks, it does now know where the pertinent levels are. Therefore, game on, we think.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7350      

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance only just bullish

Available to buy now

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