Category: Uncategorized

September 21st, 2021 by Richard

Starting the Oct expiry below its zone was bit of a shock for the SPX it seems.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 09/16/21 (Not published)

 

Nb. Our comment for 09/21/21

 

The important aspect is that anyone who has read our comments over the last few expiries should have been in no doubt whatsoever about this potential pullback.

The only shame is that we still don’t publish the ending expiry ratio table next to the forthcoming expiry ratio table in the rollover week, as then you would have also known about which levels to watch out for.

Interestingly the zone in October has been very solid where it is, despite September’s jump to 4500. We say “interestingly” as just like the FTSE, where this index closed last Friday was below it, and therefore in bear territory.

However, the really critical level yesterday, was Y2 at 4340, as had you known that it was there you would have picked up on the support it gave this index for at least half an hour, before capitulating. The fact the market then went a further 35-points below it, had us looking at R1 as the next level but, and this was probably more to do with the DJX, it recovered. Also, on the very first day of an expiry, especially when markets are challenging virgin territory, the actual ratio levels can be somewhat formative, and as you can see in the above table, last Thursday Y2 was actually 4295. For the record, yesterdays intraday low was 4305.91.

Perhaps more significant for today, was yesterdays close, which was back above Y2.

Possibly most important of all, it has seemingly galvanised everyone as we have now had two consecutive days of “strong” activity here, on what was otherwise shaping up to be yet another expiry when the market was stuck in automatic.

The end result of this has been the Y1 ratio bandwidth only being 190-points, and the overall Y ratio bandwidth just 345-points. Of course, these are still stupidly wide, but both are considerably less wide than they have been, and furthermore, at least so far, have reversed the trend of them actually growing wider.

Also, it has certainly kick-started this intermediary expiry into life early on, which will hopefully continue.

 

Range:            4340  to  4445           

Activity:          Strong

Type:              Neutral

 

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September 20th, 2021 by Richard

The FTSE even starts the Oct expiry in bear territory.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 09/17/21 (Not published)

Nb. Our comment on 09/20/21

 

Turns out that there was just one last “hurrah” in the September expiry, and with the EDSP of 7031.68 it was all about the zone at the end.

Which is really what is all about in the October expiry as well, as here the zone is now 7000-7100, which is in fact slightly higher than it was in September.

This does however throw a degree of confusion over whether the support at 6950 on Friday was down to the hangover of Sept’s bottom boundary, or an early test of R1 in Oct.

Either way, it held firm, but it remains a very critical level in this expiry, meaning the first couple of days could decide the next 4-weeks.

If R1 doesn’t hold, and if you compare the two tables above, it has only very recently become R1 from Y2, then the market will find itself in a 250-point wide bandwidth.

Of course, we must also point out that currently this index is below its zone, so it actually starts this expiry already in bear territory, which won’t please many.

Furthermore, the terrible irony of it all, is that all that woe this index had in Sept trying to get past R2 at 7150 and then R3 at 7200 is now no longer a problem, with R1 above the zone not kicking in until 7250.

But, first things first, and that is a hold at R1, and then to recapture its new zone. Otherwise it’s a long way down to R2 support.

Finally, don’t forget that we are now back to an intermediary expiry, so everything gets taken down a notch, or at least it should, as overall activity is about a quarter of what we saw in September’s triple witching expiry.

 

Range:            6950  to  7000       

Activity:          Very good

Type:              On balance bearish

 

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September 14th, 2021 by Richard

The SPX zone eventually moves, now it can get on with the rollover and expiry.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 09/07/21

 

After the first week when the SPX made full use of its enormously wide Y1 ratio bandwidth by effectively traversing the entire width of it, last week must have come as bit of a shock.

And there is no doubt about it, but the last week was all about this index struggling to make any more forward progression now it was deeply into the Y2 ratio.

Although this has not been uncommon of late, it is still rather sad, as even Y2 is classed as “minimal”. Especially in a triple.

Anyway, we have eventually seen some movement in Y2 above the zone, as it has now slipped to 4530.

The significance being that, with this level now in retreat, coupled with the market being practically at the same point now, then it is decision time for this index.

Whether to continue to struggle in Y2, or retreat back into the far more comfortable Y1 ratio bandwidth.

If it does choose the latter, then further forward movement could well be limited to how quickly Y2 continues to retreat.

All the while there remains a spectacularly wide Y1 ratio bandwidth beneath it, which still goes all the way down to 4220, a mere 310-points away.

Of course, there is the zone before then, so should the market indeed turn south, then this should provide the first line of support.

But if the SPX follows the pattern of the last few expiries, then we should see it bumping along behind Y2, knocking on that door and hopefully forcing that retreat to at least continue, if not accelerate.

In the meantime, we haven’t seen an expiry recently that the zone itself hasn’t moved up, so come the rollover and expiry next week, even that target could very easily be a lot higher. But all the time the huge Y ratio bandwidths beneath this market will be there, so that risk will also be ever-present.

 

  Range:          4405  to  4590           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 09/14/21

 

And there we have it! The SPX’s zone moves up to 4495-4505.

TBH, it has been a bit like watching paint dry, this move having been flagged for so long.

Furthermore, it has created bit of a schizophrenic index in all truth, as on the one hand the siren-like call of the zone when it was down at 4395-4405 had the market being called in that direction.

However, it was obviously somewhat reluctant, and not just for those stale bulls who had fought so hard with Y2 just the week before but, because the move up to 4495-4505 was imminent any day.

Hence it was sort of stuck in no-man’s land between the two.

One sort of feels that now this has eventually happened, the real rollover and expiry can get underway.

In the meantime, it is going to make for a very interesting day today, as for the first time this expiry, the SPX is now actually below its zone, and therefore, by definition, in bear territory.

If nothing else, this should at least galvanise those bulls, and whether or not they succeed in getting back to the (new) zone for the rollover tomorrow is going to be the big question, a question with very interesting consequences if they don’t.

Interestingly, and as is quite normal these days, we have seen a lot of writing of otm puts, and what with just days to go this can be seen by some as “safe” money, so getting back to the new zone will be rather important to these traders especially.

Overall, the Y1 ratio bandwidth is now 295-points, with the total Y ratio bandwidth coming in at 435-points, so a slight narrowing, but not by anything significant.

This really means that the zone has moved up inside the Y1 ratio bandwidth, rather than being forced in this direction by bullish activity, which is ok, but not representative of a true bull market. Still, it makes for an exciting expiry at least.

 

Range:            4245  to  4495           

Activity:          Average

Type:              Bearish

 

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September 13th, 2021 by Richard

Can the FTSE hold in its zone for the rollover and expiry?

 

Nb. Our comment from the 09/06/21

Here we are at the halfway point of the September triple witching expiry and all we can say is that R2 at 7150 is having an amazingly robust and everlasting effect on this index.

Far more than we would ever have credited it with, and historically far more than it has before in one of the big expiries.

The only conclusion we can draw from this is that it is not the amount of dynamic delta that is producing R2’s longevity, but rather the lack of commitment by the practitioners.

However, what we have seen before, and especially in the third week, is that equities can take control, normally by means of an upbeat note on one (or two) of the heavyweight sectors like Financials, and the resultant jump in their collective share prices tend to get the market up and over this hurdle.

The trouble here is, that just over the R2 hurdle it faces R3 at 7200, and then DR at 7250, and all the while the expiry clock is ticking.

It really is a shame, as there is no doubting it, where all-time-highs are concerned the FTSE is an exceedingly poor relation to almost every other index, scrapping a new one out by less than 10-points, which is pathetic really by comparison.

And whilst mentioning highs, the intraday high on Tuesday 31st August was apparently 7160.49, which was up from the open of 7148.01, but all we saw was an easier open and the market barely troubling 7150 from beneath. The main reason we are saying this is so that there is a record of yet more false data.

Getting back to this week, if 7150 does break, then we could see a deep incursion into R3 as quite often the euphoria of the release is a bit like an elastic band breaking. If it doesn’t then the zone is the target, which is the case in both scenarios, it’s just a question of whether or not there will be one more last hurrah.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7200       

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 09/13/21

 

The FTSE certainly did go for “one more last hurrah” on last Monday, fortuitously the day we posted, as it went on to trouble R3 at 7200 with the intraday high of 7195.62.

To be honest we sought of expected a bit more gusto than that but, upon reflection, what with the meal they made out of the ratio at 7150 then this lack of more fight is perhaps more understandable.

And talking of this index’s nemesis this expiry, 7150 was the crucial level on Tuesday.

The real time close was 7152.75, so to give that up in the auction and finish below it at 7149.37 was very revealing, and the first really significant ratio point last week.

After testing the top of its zone, the very next day, Wednesday 8th, with the intraday low of 7061.13, it was the Thursday that supplied the second significant ratio point.

And there was no mucking about as it was the open, that we had circa 7038, which is again nowhere near the official 7095.53 (but you know already why this is false data), that leap-frogged the market over its upper boundary and into its zone.

Then on the Friday, and we don’t think anyone was left in any doubt about the bullish sentiment seemingly ever-present in the FTSE, as it literally spent almost the entire day trying to get back above its zone’s upper boundary at 7050.

Unless this sentiment suddenly grows a pair, then we can’t see much else than this index staying zone-bound, or at least until the rollover on Wednesday.

Quite often the hugely increased levels of activity generated by the rollover and expiry, even more so in a triple, can be misdiagnosed and used by bulls (or bears) to justify their own agenda.

This may well happen, but if derivatives can hold the index inside its zone for at least the rollover, then there will be a lot of smiley people out there.

 

Range:            6950  to  7050       

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Bearish

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September 7th, 2021 by Richard

After struggling in Y2 Ratio will the SPX welcome a move back to the Y1 bandwidth.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 09/01/21

 

This is definitely a first for us, that is, publishing the first note on an expiry in the actual month of its expiry.

Considering the market fell back to its zone at 4400 for the August expiry it’s no real surprise “normal service” was resumed as soon as it was over.

Therefore, and again absolutely no surprise, that the market started hitting new highs last week as Y2 above the zone didn’t even start until 4505.

The interesting aspect was last Friday the 27th, as Y2 hadn’t moved, and yet the market powered on up right through it.

Sadly, we weren’t witness to whether or not it had any effect on the market as it blasted through, only seeing the end result the next day.

This means that the start of this week has been very illuminating as this market handles being in the Y2 ratio bandwidth.

Of course, this is a triple, so we would expect as much, but perhaps not quite so early on.

Otherwise, it is pretty much exactly as we have been seeing over the last few expiries.

Retreating ratios above the zone, which in itself is looking to move up, all wrapped up in an overall lack of ratio, albeit being a triple these are far far higher than an intermediary, but comparing like with like, then the argument still holds true.

However, what is a big concern, is that the Y1 ratio bandwidth is 285-points, with the overall Y ratio bandwidth 435-points, this is as wide as we have ever seen it…which is remarkable considering this is a triple.

We are essentially back to our automatic car in neutral, just nobody say “BOO”.

 

Range:            4405  to  4580           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Neutral

 

   

Nb. Our comment for 09/07/21

 

After the first week when the SPX made full use of its enormously wide Y1 ratio bandwidth by effectively traversing the entire width of it, last week must have come as bit of a shock.

And there is no doubt about it, but the last week was all about this index struggling to make any more forward progression now it was deeply into the Y2 ratio.

Although this has not been uncommon of late, it is still rather sad, as even Y2 is classed as “minimal”. Especially in a triple.

Anyway, we have eventually seen some movement in Y2 above the zone, as it has now slipped to 4530.

The significance being that, with this level now in retreat, coupled with the market being practically at the same point now, then it is decision time for this index.

Whether to continue to struggle in Y2, or retreat back into the far more comfortable Y1 ratio bandwidth.

If it does choose the latter, then further forward movement could well be limited to how quickly Y2 continues to retreat.

All the while there remains a spectacularly wide Y1 ratio bandwidth beneath it, which still goes all the way down to 4220, a mere 310-points away.

Of course, there is the zone before then, so should the market indeed turn south, then this should provide the first line of support.

But if the SPX follows the pattern of the last few expiries, then we should see it bumping along behind Y2, knocking on that door and hopefully forcing that retreat to at least continue, if not accelerate.

In the meantime, we haven’t seen an expiry recently that the zone itself hasn’t moved up, so come the rollover and expiry next week, even that target could very easily be a lot higher. But all the time the huge Y ratio bandwidths beneath this market will be there, so that risk will also be ever-present.

 

  Range:          4405  to  4590           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance bearish

 

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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September 6th, 2021 by Richard

As we pass the halfway point can the FTSE manage one last Hurrah?

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/31/21

Apologies for not posting last week, but as you can see by comparing the two tables above, not a great deal has changed.

Although, we do hold our hand up here and admit that it would very probably have been rather useful to know that the Y2 ratio bandwidth above the zone went from 7050 up to 7150.

Basically, the last three day’s intraday highs of 7151.75, 7150.12 and 7157.60 respectively just about tells you all you need to know.

Although the close on Friday was just below R2, please don’t forget that that was strike 3 (so it is already on borrowed time) and that this is a triple, where it generally takes on the high R ratios, or at least it’s those that are needed to turn the tide.

Which brings us around to one of the changes, being the appearance of R3 at 7200.

So, will the FTSE stay in its Y ratio bandwidth? If not, will R3 then hold?

Of course, we don’t know but, at least now you know where the dynamic delta is so you can tighten stops or at least have your finger poised over the button.

What we will say though, is that DR at 7250 is far closer to B1 than it is to R3, and the differential is something akin to R2 in its own right, so therefore a very significant hurdle, which is probably of more use to the portfolio investor.

Also, there are now just three weeks to go in this expiry and any further forward progress is always going to be tainted by the fact that the zone is static down there at 7000, so it will always look temporary to us for now.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7200       

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance bullish

 

  

Nb. Our comment on 09/06/21

 

Here we are at the halfway point of the September triple witching expiry and all we can say is that R2 at 7150 is having an amazingly robust and everlasting effect on this index.

Far more than we would ever have credited it with, and historically far more than it has before in one of the big expiries.

The only conclusion we can draw from this is that it is not the amount of dynamic delta that is producing R2’s longevity, but rather the lack of commitment by the practitioners.

However, what we have seen before, and especially in the third week, is that equities can take control, normally by means of an upbeat note on one (or two) of the heavyweight sectors like Financials, and the resultant jump in their collective share prices tend to get the market up and over this hurdle.

The trouble here is, that just over the R2 hurdle it faces R3 at 7200, and then DR at 7250, and all the while the expiry clock is ticking.

It really is a shame, as there is no doubting it, where all-time-highs are concerned the FTSE is an exceedingly poor relation to almost every other index, scrapping a new one out by less than 10-points, which is pathetic really by comparison.

And whilst mentioning highs, the intraday high on Tuesday 31st August was apparently 7160.49, which was up from the open of 7148.01, but all we saw was an easier open and the market barely troubling 7150 from beneath. The main reason we are saying this is so that there is a record of yet more false data.

Getting back to this week, if 7150 does break, then we could see a deep incursion into R3 as quite often the euphoria of the release is a bit like an elastic band breaking. If it doesn’t then the zone is the target, which is the case in both scenarios, it’s just a question of whether or not there will be one more last hurrah.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7200       

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Bearish

 

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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September 1st, 2021 by Richard

The SPX is already looking aggressive.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/27/21 (Not published)

 

Nb. Our comment for 09/01/21

 

This is definitely a first for us, that is, publishing the first note on an expiry in the actual month of its expiry.

Considering the market fell back to its zone at 4400 for the August expiry it’s no real surprise “normal service” was resumed as soon as it was over.

Therefore, and again absolutely no surprise, that the market started hitting new highs last week as Y2 above the zone didn’t even start until 4505.

The interesting aspect was last Friday the 27th, as Y2 hadn’t moved, and yet the market powered on up right through it.

Sadly, we weren’t witness to whether or not it had any effect on the market as it blasted through, only seeing the end result the next day.

This means that the start of this week has been very illuminating as this market handles being in the Y2 ratio bandwidth.

Of course, this is a triple, so we would expect as much, but perhaps not quite so early on.

Otherwise, it is pretty much exactly as we have been seeing over the last few expiries.

Retreating ratios above the zone, which in itself is looking to move up, all wrapped up in an overall lack of ratio, albeit being a triple these are far far higher than an intermediary, but comparing like with like, then the argument still holds true.

However, what is a big concern, is that the Y1 ratio bandwidth is 285-points, with the overall Y ratio bandwidth 435-points, this is as wide as we have ever seen it…which is remarkable considering this is a triple.

We are essentially back to our automatic car in neutral, just nobody say “BOO”.

 

Range:            4405  to  4580           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Neutral

 

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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August 31st, 2021 by Richard

Now we are starting to look like a triple witcher in the FTSE.

Nb. Our comment from the 08/20/21 (Not published)

Nb. Our comment on 08/31/21

 

Apologies for not posting last week, but as you can see by comparing the two tables above, not a great deal has changed.

Although, we do hold our hand up here and admit that it would very probably have been rather useful to know that the Y2 ratio bandwidth above the zone went from 7050 up to 7150.

Basically, the last three day’s intraday highs of 7151.75, 7150.12 and 7157.60 respectively just about tells you all you need to know.

Although the close on Friday was just below R2, please don’t forget that that was strike 3 (so it is already on borrowed time) and that this is a triple, where it generally takes on the high R ratios, or at least it’s those that are needed to turn the tide.

Which brings us around to one of the changes, being the appearance of R3 at 7200.

So, will the FTSE stay in its Y ratio bandwidth? If not, will R3 then hold?

Of course, we don’t know but, at least now you know where the dynamic delta is so you can tighten stops or at least have your finger poised over the button.

What we will say though, is that DR at 7250 is far closer to B1 than it is to R3, and the differential is something akin to R2 in its own right, so therefore a very significant hurdle, which is probably of more use to the portfolio investor.

Also, there are now just three weeks to go in this expiry and any further forward progress is always going to be tainted by the fact that the zone is static down there at 7000, so it will always look temporary to us for now.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7200       

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance bullish

 

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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August 18th, 2021 by Richard

Could Y2 at 4480 end up by being the all-time, expiry and intraday high for this expiry?

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/12/21

 

Bang on the money, or probably more appropriately, still banging on that Y2 ratio door.

As one can see from the above table, that this particular door is now standing at 4455.

We haven’t calculated the ratios this week until today, but last Friday Y2 was 4430, so the market essentially forced the door ajar and got a foot on the other side.

The start of this week was effectively the market waiting for the ratios to catch up.

But now they have forced the changes, then the dominoes keep falling.

OK, the ratios below the zone have hardly shifted, but they are certainly building up to it.

In the meantime, the zone will move up again, to 4395-4405, and we suspect the only limiting factor to further moves is that it is the rollover and expiry next week, so time.

Of course, Y2 is very likely to continue to retreat, and we suspect R1 will start doing so before long as well.

So really, the only main concern is the fragility of it all, as the Y1 ratio bandwidth increases to 260-points, whereas the overall Y ratio bandwidth narrows to 390-points, both still ridiculously wide.

It is the most amazing market we have come across, as it continually powers to new highs, but at the same time, overall, the level of ratio is abysmal as are the daily levels.

This means that this bull run and resultant new all-time-highs have been achieved without very many bulls at all.

The saving grace has really been that there have actually been fewer bears than the miserly number of bulls out there, but, hey, who’s to say that’s not wrong, it’s just that previously the numbers have just been far bigger but the split remains the same.

 

Range:            4355  to  4455           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment for 08/18/21

 

The zone did move up, the very next day in fact, to 4395-4405 and, as we said, the only aspect limiting further moves up is time.

It is the rollover today, and when the SPX was heading south yesterday and down almost 62-points at around 4417 we figured it was heading for its zone.

When it reversed, managing to finish where it did, we then figured that the zone had made the next move up.

As one can see, it turns out that neither are the case.

And this in a nutshell, is what the problem is at the moment, to us at least, as with so little ratio it is all so very thin and fragile that it doesn’t know what is happening next.

Which is a nice little lead-in to what is happening next in the big picture, and we don’t mean the upcoming triple witching September expiry, but the end of tapering. As, should that ever end, then excluding the last decade or so, and markets return to normal, it would be great to see them act naturally to the dynamic delta once again.

Getting back to the soon to end August expiry and, interestingly, Y2 has remained at 4480, where it was when this market’s intraday, all-time and expiry high hit 4480.26 on Monday.

Which if it stays like this, would be its own triple, albeit in an intermediary expiry.

For the record, Y2 here has actually strengthened from yesterday, but is still down a little bit from where it was on Monday.

So, to keep up the analogy, the door remains closed.

However, the ratios have started to move below the zone, and although narrowed the Y ratio bandwidths are still a gargantuan 235 and 385-points respectively.

Therefore, it is much the same as it has been all expiry really, Y2 at 4480 is the closed door, the zone could be anywhere in the Y1 ratio bandwidth really, but currently the favourites by a very small margin are (obviously) 4400 and possibly 4450, or anywhere in-between, while a chasm remains below a QE inflated market.

 

Range:            4405  to  4480           

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance bearish

 

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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August 16th, 2021 by Richard

With the rollover and expiry looming 7250 is key for the FTSE

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/09/21

Generally, we have the last ratio table on the right above as a term of reference, so everyone can see at a glance how the ratios have changed, and therefore what the trend is.

However today, it is also very useful in helping to explain the price action in the FTSE last week.

Essentially, Monday and Tuesday were governed by the right-hand column, whereas the rest of the week by the left hand one.

In a nutshell, the first two days were all about 7100, whereas the rest of the week was all about 7150.

Very interesting, and also significant, is that after Wednesday’s intraday high of 7142.54, the market never went back to even being near R2 again.

It is a real shame as almost every other market is setting new all-time-highs virtually weekly, yet here it keeps on getting walloped by the R ratios.

Made all the harder to bear having just managed to break free of its zone.

Although there are still two-weeks to go in this expiry, which is already feeling as if it has been going on for ages, the way ahead is beginning to look very difficult.

After 7150 the exponential ratio levels just keep going up and up every 50-points, so it may just crest one hill to find another mountain just in front.

On top of all this, if it fails at 7150, then the commensurate support ratio level is not until 6950.

As the market is at 7122.95, in our view, there is only 27.05-points upside, against 200-points downside, notwithstanding the fact the zones upper boundary appears first. Or, of course, the ratios could change in the meantime.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150       

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 08/16/21

 

We have to hold our hand up here, as we never really expected the market to get past what was then R2 at 7150, let alone R3 at 7200.

But it has, despite the fact those levels at some point last week dropped to R1 and R2 respectively.

So, rather than a 27-point upside, it has managed to carve out a 100-point one, which means it most definitely has grown a pair to achieve these new all-time-highs, and joining all the other indices in doing so.

Which is actually a rather sad reflection on the FTSE in all truth, as although it has achieved this distinction, we don’t think there can be any argument at all, that it has found it particularly hard going, unlike, say, the SPX for instance.

Anyway, it all starts to get very serious this week as it is the rollover and expiry.

More significantly, the FTSE is now facing DR at 7250, which will be an almighty dynamic delta test for an index that can hardly cope with being stuck in the middle of a R2 ratio bandwidth for the last three days.

Obviously in light of our comments above, one can never say never, but yeah, it would be an unprecedented achievement in an intermediary expiry.

Even more so with the rollover looming.

Do not lose sight of the fact the zone is down at 7000, and the nearest Y ratio doesn’t start until it gets below 7150.

Out of interest the triple witching September expiry, has DR ratio at 7250 as well.

Hat’s off to the FTSE for doing what it has done, but unless there is a seismic shift in the ratios over the next day or so, then reality, or the number of futures being dumped on the market courtesy of the dynamic delta, will take its toil we believe.

 

Range:            7050  to  7250       

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance only just bearish

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