SPX Jan to Feb Rollover 16th Jan 2018
The story in the SPX this expiry has been the utter decimation of the ratios above the zone, which continues.
Again, as we said this is about as bullish as you can get, but like an advancing army if you go too far too fast your supply lines get overstretched, although here it’s not about supply but rather support.
As an indication the fall in the ratios is roughly 32%, which on a daily basis is just huge.
R2 slips to 2805 today, but at this rate of decline it could easily be 2815 by the end of the day, but it is now a question of whether the rollover or expiry will bring a dose of reality.
Range: 2780 to 2805
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance bearish
Feb in a word, shell-shocked.
The start of the year is traditionally very quiet and as an intermediary to an intermediary especially so.
But, when one considers, that this index is up over 100-points in the Jan expiry then Feb is struggling from the start, and if you throw heightened aggressiveness into the equation and all you got is R2 then it is virtually a clean sheet.
Albeit one that goes both ways, although markets are only interested in one at the moment.
Range: 2785 to 2820
Activity: Good
Type: Neutral
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NDX Jan to Feb Rollover 16th Jan 2018
Good old NDX still adding strikes right at the end, hopefully these ones will attract some activity.
Friday took the NDX out of its zone, and so far, it is the only one Stateside that is even looking like enjoying a conventional rollover, so a big few days for it.
Otherwise the ratios continue to build strongly below the zone, and above Y2 comes in a bit, but it is very much against the run of play, so if it gets tested it is an unknown entity.
Range: 6725 to 6825
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance bearish
Poor old Feb in the NDX, it looks like everyone is just ignoring it.
Perhaps that’s why they need to add so many strikes, just to get attention?
Intermediary to intermediary, time of the year, so far too quick (for the record up 292.22-points) or all combined, but what little ratio that is present is just dire.
Range: 6525 to ….
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bearish
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DJX Jan to Feb Rollover 16th Jan 2018
Jan was always about 24900 here in the DJX and for those who follow this commentary then this being the target was no surprise.
The fact it breached it at the start of the third week was only noteworthy because we thought it may have been a bit premature.
We had that minor adjustment, minor only because of the magnitude of the original position, in its own right it was a big, which caused a slight stumble, but so far, this index is up 1120-points.
So, the only thing that remains is when “job done” applies.
Range: 24900 to …..
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance not bullish
For Feb it is going to be all about whether or not that enormous position gets rolled.
Ironically with so little ratio above the zone and the market already being on Y2 then this is an expiry that has no ratio impediment to slow the market down.
Although, just like the SPX, this is a two-way street even though everyone at present is only going one-way.
Range: 25800 to ……
Activity: Poor
Type: Not bullish
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