The SPX did everything in its power we feel to achieve as normal a rollover as possible, namely the move up in the NZ.
This left the upper boundary just a few points away but with the DJX going “to infinity and beyond” it was all it could do just to hold itself essentially stationary.
All we can say is that it was a valiant effort that just goes to prove how unnatural the Dow’s current behaviour is.
So, yet another index we didn’t get the low (as it never went below its NZ) but nailed the high as it was an epic 3-week battle tailgating R1 and of course yesterday was a miss, although not by very much at all and with extreme mitigating circumstances, so all in all not perfect but not disappointing either.
Range: 2555 to 2575
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
Again, it looks very likely that the November NZ will move up to 2545-2555 to match Octobers.
Until it does the development is always going to be stunted which is an issue as it is already struggling to build any depth of ratio.
Although, below the zone, we see both R1 and R2 come in a bit but as this expiry is now but a day away from being the alpha it needs a lot more than it has, unless of course it is just going to blindly continue tailgating R1.
Range: 2530 to 2585
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance bearish
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That was a lot closer in the NDX to being a perfect example of the “uncomfortable” trading range we have been mentioning, with an interesting side-line comparison to what happened in the DJX.
Here it opened at 6128.91 which was effectively right on Y2 (NB yesterday it was 6125) and it went a fraction higher to 6129.48 before finishing easier with a low of 6106.85 in the meantime, and very much against the run of play in the other two.
Regarding our forecast the NDX basically spent the first three weeks in or around its NZ, then when that moved up so did the market until eventually the zone stopped but the market carried on to challenge Y2 where it has been tailgating it just like the SPX and R1.
Obviously, the Wednesday was a miss but again we are not unduly concerned by this as it has been very compliant in many other respects.
Range: 6025 to 6150
Activity: Poor
Type: Not bullish
As we said yesterday “again” no changes in the November ratios although today at least we have seen the appearance of R1 below the zone.
Time is fast running out to develop any meaningful depth of ratio but at least with the Y1 ratio so low there is every possibility of the NZ moving to the market rather than the other way around.
At the moment all we can say is we are now lacing up those ice skates in anticipation.
Range: 6025 to 6275
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
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It seems 23000 was a big level in the DJX to everybody else but us.
For us the defining moment came at 22900 and when it broke that on the 4th attempt it prompted our comment “to infinity and beyond” which in actual terms translates to 251-points with a couple of days to go.
We should also mention that yesterday although the open was up 90-points at 23087 it breached 23100 within minutes (or less) so when we talk about trading in a 100-point multiple depending on its open when this is right on the divider it could of course be 100-points either way.
We haven’t bothered with a forecast in this index for most of this year as it has been in a world of its own and so these will resume when this index returns to planet earth.
Range: 22900 to
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bullish
In the November expiry it is rather odd as the NZ which is already a long way below the current market is looking like it is going to actually fall.
The question is whether this is just dovetailing with October or a sign of a deeper malaise?
Still a couple of days to go but as it is looking very likely that this market is going to start above the highest level of ratio then we are all going “to boldly go where no man has gone before”.
Range: 22900 to
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance bullish
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