SPX Oct to Nov Rollover 20th Oct 2017
Holding our hands up we were feeling rather smug when this index got down to 2547.92 and looked to or did test the lower boundary of its NZ.
It may have missed on Wednesday but this was the proper reaction to that for the expiry today, but of course we just couldn’t factor in the DJX.
However, at the end of the day, or more specifically the expiry, it looks to be just about 7-points above its zone so very close but no star for us this time.
Range: 2555 to 2575
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bearish
There is the expected move up in the NZ to match Octobers and does rather neatly tie-off the rollover and expiry week.
Of course, on Monday this expiry assumes full control, or as much as the DJX will allow it we suspect.
One flag already raised is the level of activity, especially today, as at this time it should easily be in the upper half of the scale.
Furthermore, when we consider how underdeveloped this expiry is, and being a back to back intermediary this is not unusual, but as such a small amount does go a long way so this level is actually very disappointing.
Range: 2555 to 2585
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
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NDX Oct to Nov Rollover 20th Oct 2017
The NDX did give it a jolly good go but unlike the SPX failed to get back to its NZ, only getting as low as 6051.47.
This is a multiple of 25 as was the open at 6074.27 but being the penultimate day, we suspect other forces were at work here.
It did finish easier but no star and as one can see the ratios above the zone were at last tumbling, which at the end of the day only serves to mitigate the pain someone will feel, but only to the tune of Y1 so probably better described as uncomfortable.
Range: 6025 to 6175
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
We were rather hoping to see all three in sync across the two expiries but the NDX November has spoiled the party.
However, it was on some spectacular activity and unlike the DJX here it has really shaken up the table.
Of course, the NZ has moved, and appropriately to where the market is, but almost all the other levels have moved, especially below the zone, so there is definitely life here still.
Range: 6050 to 6100
Activity: Off the scale
Type: On balance bearish
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DJX Oct to Nov Rollover 20th Oct 2017
The NZ in the October DJX has returned to 22500-22700 having been the last 5 days at the lower level, but really the story is not about this although it should be of course.
It was quite a turnaround and they are not called the thundering herd for nothing.
Once it got past R3 this was always the likely outcome but as that level hasn’t budged it is going to be very expensive for someone.
Range: 22900 to
Activity: Good
Type: Bearish
Rather ironically it is not this NZ that has fallen but rather the front month’s that rose, which just like the SPX ties-off this week nice and neatly.
However, there is still the serious possibility of a move down in the zone here but how influential that may be is the question.
The story here is activity, and it was a very low baseline so this is not that special, but suffice it to say that all that activity and the only change is the appearance of R1 above the zone.
It is all just numbers to us but it does make for a thought provoking potential target.
Range: 22700 to 24000
Activity: Off the scale
Type: On balance decently bullish
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