Category: Uncategorized
July 12th, 2017 by Richard
When it came to the crunch yesterday evidently there was not enough fight left at 7350 as the market powered down through it without blinking.
Presumably the hours spent camped on it on Monday drained the bulls desire to hold it even though it is straight into the R1 ratio.
However that was still a lot of effort to go to on Friday so we don’t think they have retreated very far, but probably need an ally to give them confidence.
The ratios are firmer across the board, more so above the zone, but the only change is DR below the zone comes in slightly.
Range: 7250 to 7350
Activity: Poor
Type: Neutral
Having struggled so hard and so unsuccessfully to get above Y2 when it was at 12450 for over a week it seems the DAX was not about to surrender what it had gained very easily.
The fact that the low was just 12417 and irrespective that the close was 12437, because Y2 is now at 12350, shows just how resilient this index was yesterday.
However we stress that the Y ratio bandwidth still stretches from 12250 all the way up to 13000, a massive 750 points, so all it needs is a little spark to start it going as it has huge potential still.
Range: 12250 to 12550
Activity: Poor
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
July 11th, 2017 by Richard
US Ratio Table 11th July 2017
For the last few trading days we have been saying the decision seems to rest with the DJX however here the SPX may itself be stirring from its slumbers.
We say that as yesterday it got as high as 2432.00 and as low as 2422.27 and this to us is a NZ bandwidth test so we should see a breakout today.
If this does indeed prove to be the case the timing could not be more opportune as well as we fully anticipate the market getting far more active in the build up to the rollover next week.
Range: 2420 to 2430
Activity Moderate
Type: Bearish
After the NZ bandwidth test here in the NDX on Friday we did indeed see a breakout yesterday.
Although we were slightly worried as the open was very tame, only adding 6.24 points to 5662.71 and therefore still shy of the upper boundary.
The market then went as high as 5675, the upper boundary, before giving it all up and retreating back to the centre of its zone at 5650.
However after this it powered ahead and is now above its NZ so perhaps a pertinent time to remind where the “step-up” levels are and above the zone the first is at 5825 whereas below they are still at 5575 and then 5525.
However please remember we are still talking within the Y1 ratio bandwidth.
Range: 5675 to 5875
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bearish
We suspect it needs the SPX to take up the running as here in the DJX we have the 5th day of no activity by our calculations and the second day in a row, which is probably worse.
Therefore no wonder it was such a small daily range that never even came close to another test of either of its zone boundaries and on top of which it finished even closer to the middle than it was.
The fact that it is in its Neutral Zone probably does not do justice to how uninvolved this index seems at present.
Range: 21300 to 21500
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
Posted in Uncategorized
July 11th, 2017 by Richard
Fairly textbook day from the FTSE on Monday as having gone to all that trouble to get it on the bottom boundary then it would have to be something rather persuasive for the market to relinquish this grip.
We use “fairly” as the market did come back to the bottom boundary, and in fact camped out at 7350 for a good couple of hours, producing the low of 7344.31 into the bargain.
However when the Street confirmed it was unlikely to upset their plan the market then raced away to secure a strong foothold back inside its NZ, and as we have said previously this now means clear skies above until 7450.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
By default the DAX has now got itself clear as on Monday it was still having terrible difficulty with Y2 which was then still at 12450.
This ratio has now slipped to 12350 so the net result is even though it closed at 12445 it now means it is back in the Y1 ratio bandwidth.
Being so very sensitive is a worry and is rather unusual and as this week goes on and builds towards the rollover next week we are sure this will rectify itself.
Normally when this index is in so much Y ratio we can easily be seeing daily moves of 1% to 3%.
Range: 12250 to 12550
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
Posted in Uncategorized
July 10th, 2017 by Richard
Friday saw a good rebound in the SPX which is exactly the sort of action we would expect being surrounded by so much Y1 ratio, but as it is right back to the centre of its NZ it actually reveals very little.
Historically in intermediary expiry’s this index tends to bounce between the R1 levels, so 2370 to 2465 is still an enormous potential range and we still think the DJX will hold the key.
Although all three are now back inside their respective zones both here and the NDX have been in bear territory which is why we feel the DJX will have the deciding vote.
Range: 2420 to 2430
Activity Poor
Type: On balance bullish
The NDX opened up 20.95 points at 5618.85, and it didn’t stay there for very much longer and in fact the open was also the low.
We mention this as the bottom boundary of their NZ is 5625 so it was only 6.15 points shy of this, and because of the above we are happy to call that a hit especially as the high of 5673.02 was undoubtedly a hit of the upper boundary.
This makes it a NZ bandwidth test so we would expect a breakout today.
There are still two weeks to go and now all three indices are in line it looks to us like this party is just about to get started.
Range: 5625 to 5675
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
It was a very quiet end to the week for the DJX only managing a rise 0.44% but then again it was already in its NZ and didn’t have that far to travel to get to the middle of it.
In contrast the NDX had to rise 1.05% and the SPX had to move 0.64%.
However we have the 4th day of no activity by our measurements of this expiry but nevertheless we feel this index will be the decider as it has not yet ventured below its zone into bear territory so whichever boundary of its zone it breaks we feel the other two will follow.
Range: 21300 to 21500
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
Posted in Uncategorized
July 10th, 2017 by Richard
As we have said many times we do not believe in coincidence where markets are concerned and here we are with the FTSE closing right on our level 7350.
From what we said on Friday “with this change it now places far greater emphasis on 7350” so it is worth noting that the real time close was 7343.43 after the intraday high of 7359.48, and it was the auction that took it to the bottom boundary.
We used to call this the quarterback sneak and historically it has been effective, especially so in London that has their own peculiar market opening methodology, as now above them there is 100 points of clear sky.
Range: 7250 to 7350 or 7350 to 7450
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
On Friday the DAX didn’t challenge Y2 again and in fact the closing auction here added 11.31 points to the index and not only turned a negative day into a positive one but also supplied the high of the day.
Nevertheless activity is still present and unashamedly bullish so it has had an effect on the ratios below the zone, the most obvious being the removal of R1.
And it was R1 first at 12400 (low 12390) on Monday and then again on the Thursday when it was at 12300 (low 12316) that has provided very decent support for this index so now 12250 becomes a very significant level.
Range: 12250 to 12550
Activity: Average
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
July 7th, 2017 by Richard
At last the NZ change in the FTSE which has been on the cards since last week and which does alter the picture significantly.
However first the low yesterday was 7303.46 so although R2 had dropped that day to 7250 it evidently still carried a punch, as it most often does the same day it just dips below the threshold, but it also reveals that the bears are not being that aggressive.
Nevertheless with this change it now places far greater emphasis on 7350 and it being the new bottom boundary as once, or if, over it this index will have 100 points of clear sky directly above.
Range: 7250 to 7350
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
The DAX every day this week has been trying to get back above Y2 at 12450 with the daily highs being all in a row at 12486, 12481, 12496 and 12490.
However where it closed every day was either on or quite a way below Y2 showing how hard it was struggling with it.
Although more importantly is the fact that on Monday it tested R1 which was then at 12400 with the low of 12390, and evidently it didn’t succeed in breaking back up but it wasn’t for want of trying, and so yesterday, when R1 was now at 12300, the market got as low as 12316 when it was off 137 points so hopefully this new test will give it greater confidence to do it this time.
Range: 12300 to 12550
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
July 7th, 2017 by Richard
Judging by the activity in the SPX the derivative players at least are still on holiday, but the market is beginning to act as it should do in so much Y ratio.
Although at the moment the real driving force is the DJX we feel (see below) as with so much ratio latitude here they are the only ones encountering anything of substance.
It has hit Y2 when it was 2450 earlier on in this expiry, and which still remains its high, so it will be very revealing if or when it hits the corresponding level at 2395, and don’t forget we are only talking the Y ratio.
Range: 2395 to 2420
Activity Very poor
Type: Bearish
Generally in the NDX when they go to all that trouble to add so many strikes then activity appears the next day perhaps just to justify all that effort, but not so far this time.
However it does show that there is still interest unlike the SPX that is on day 4 of little or scant activity.
Although here it is yet to encounter Y2 ratio, the high being 5845.15 this expiry, which was just hitting the “step-up” within the Y1 ratio bandwidth as we refer to it, and this corresponding level is 5575 with another at 5525.
Of course the low yesterday was 5579.64 so it has already encountered this first level when it was down 69.18 so today will be a real decider.
Range: 5500 / (5575) to 5625
Activity: Poor
Type: Neutral
At least we have some activity today in the DJX, but also please remember that a small pebble in a tiny puddle makes big waves, on top of which we are at the end of the third week of this expiry.
Therefore it is worth pointing out that even “moderate” activity has changed the ratios, the important one is Y2 below the zone jumping 300 points, which just goes to show how unbelievable thin it all still is here.
The low yesterday was 21305 so a very solid test of the lower boundary of its NZ, after testing the upper boundary on Wednesday with the high of 21505, this means it knows exactly what’s where now.
Of course should it breakout then it has a lot of Y1 ratio to utilise just like the other two, and hence why our comment above about being the only one encountering anything of any substance.
Range: 19100 to 21300 or 21300 to 21500
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
Posted in Uncategorized
July 6th, 2017 by Richard
It looks like the SPX is still on holiday as this now makes 3 days in a row that activity only just made it onto the scales.
The fact it opened right on the top boundary at 2430.78 set the tone a bit and it seemed happy enough to drift up as long as everyone else was likeminded, but at the end of the day a 12 point daily range, especially when they have 10 points of no ratio, is very tame indeed.
Basically it is grinding through the midpoint of a very long 5 week expiry and next week will see the build up towards the rollover so it should all start getting going again soon.
Range: 2420 to 2430 or 2430 to 2455
Activity Very poor
Type: Bearish
The NDX is certainly the only US index that doesn’t seem affected by the holidays, or perhaps all that activity was precisely because of the holiday?
Anyway they have deemed it necessary to add a further 30 plus strike an no we really don’t know why.
The only ratio to change is R1 above the zone and activity is notable only because there is nothing elsewhere, but everything else going on suggests things are only just getting started here.
It was a good rally yesterday from their first close in bear territory and right back to the centre of their zone means it’s all still to play for we suspect.
Range: 5625 to 5675
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bullish
The DJX has chalked up its third “did not register” on activity this expiry which just about sums up its own attitude towards still being on holiday.
In one of the smallest opening gaps, just 13 points, meant it opened at 21492 and then it only managed a few more points to its high of 21505.
Of course this is also the top boundary of its NZ so the fact that this was sufficient for this index to give up on just shows how quiet it really was.
If it is this sensitive it is perhaps worth remembering it is still sitting at the top of a 200 point zone that has no ratio at all in it.
Range: 21300 to 21500 or 21500 to 21900
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
Posted in Uncategorized
July 6th, 2017 by Richard
Wednesday for the FTSE looked on the surface as uneventful as the day before but there was some substance to the price action.
Basically it had a little taste of R1 at 7350 very early on although you would have to be on a minute bar to see it, then a couple of hours later it had a far more solid test of it lasting over half an hour and resulting in the low of 7347.52.
Finally it had another little pop at it mid afternoon, but again you would have to be on a minute bar chart to see it.
Therefore it seems to us it just needs that excuse and we still expect to see the NZ move to 7350-7450 so it needs that to happen sooner to reinforce R1 with being the bottom boundary of the zone as well.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bullish
For the DAX today brings the new NZ making the second drop this week, and a falling zone is never good.
Furthermore we have also got the first hint that it may not be over yet with 12350-12450 now making signs that it may be next.
The fact the market closed on Y2 reveals the high level of its sensitivity but for us the most remarkable aspect was the daily range of just 90 points when it is still cast adrift in an ocean of Y ratio.
Range: 12300 to 12550
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
July 5th, 2017 by Richard
To recap the SPX spent almost all of Friday inside its NZ, sort of a time to decide, then on Monday it evidently had as it opened up nigh on 8 points but more significantly at 2431.39 which was above the upper boundary.
Therefore it looked like the bulls had won that decision as it started to move ahead and got as high as 2439.17, up 15.76 points or 0.65%.
The fact it was so reluctant to follow the DJX, see below, as well as the fact it finished back inside its NZ for the holiday tells us that this decision was far from unanimous, so it looks like there is still a fight going on here.
Range: 2420 to 2430 or 2430 to 2455
Activity Very poor
Type: Bearish
To recap for the NDX the easiest thing is just to repeat what we said on Monday; “, the difference here is that activity was very high indeed at the end of last week and this historically suggests an agenda or view that is normally not static”.
Actually this index also opened up strongly, plus 33.44 points, but at the end of the day finished down 49.96 points going a long way in the opposite direction from the other two and into the bargain finishing in bear territory for the first time this expiry.
Range: 5500 to 5625
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
As we mention above the DJX was setting the pace on Monday, although somewhat ironically it was the smallest mover at the start only opening up 43 points, as a percent quite some way behind the others.
On which subject here the high was 21562, or 1%, so considerably more than the SPX, but at the end of the day it too finished back inside its NZ.
And therein lies the reason as on Friday it was the SPX that stayed inside its NZ severely limiting this index’s potential whereas on Monday it was this markets turn, and here don’t forget their zone is 200 points so hence the differentials.
Therefore both markets have toyed with bear territory and now both have tested the upside so we guess today they will decide.
Range: 21300 to 21500 or 21500 to 21900
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
Posted in Uncategorized
