Category: Uncategorized
August 2nd, 2017 by Richard
EU Ratio Table 2nd August 2017
It looks like the FTSE has got tired of waiting for derivatives to make their mind up and have taken it into their own hands.
Not totally successfully as the high yesterday was 7440.14 this is tantalisingly close to a test of the bottom boundary of the current steadfast zone.
Obviously we can’t rule out 7350-7450 still being the next zone and a sharp pullback might just stimulate derivatives enough to actually achieve it, and so we are again faced with the inflated importance of 7450.
Range: 7250 / (7350) to 7450 or 7450 to 7550
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
For the DAX two days after the ratio level has dropped it is generally relegated to the “step-up” categorisation but it seems even at this the old R1 level at 12100 had enough influence left.
The low yesterday for the record was 12092 (Monday 12097 & Friday 12098) however we do feel that if it wasn’t for all the other markets this index would not have been so bold.
Although now it seems to have decided it has set the play in motion and with the collapse in the ratios below the zone if it now doesn’t carry it through it is staring into the abyss.
Range: 11950 to 12450
Activity: Good
Type: Bullish
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August 1st, 2017 by Richard
Again the SPX seems content going nowhere and as it is still inside a 50 point Y ratio bandwidth this is somewhat unusual.
Activity today is probably the lowest we have seen it for a very long time, by which we mean we can get this level and especially in the middle part of an expiry, but today it only just crept onto our scale it was that low.
The most obvious aspect is the continuing divergence with the DJX as so far this expiry this index has lost ground which certainly can’t be said for the other, and if or how this may correct itself.
Range: 2455 to 2505
Activity Very poor
Type: Bearish
Just to repeat what we said on yesterday in the NDX “interestingly if the zone does move again then the market would be inside it so a trading range of 5875 to 5925 might be well worthwhile taking a note of”.
And if you had then it would have been as the high was 5932 and the low was 5871.
Funnily enough this drop yesterday makes this index off 41.2 points so far this expiry, or 0.70%, however one might be forgiven for forgetting this index has hit Y2 when it was at 6000, getting as high as 5995.77 on Thursday 27th July.
So in fact from its high this expiry it is off 115.45 points which is almost 2%.
Range: 5575 to 5875 or 5875 to 5925
Activity: Average
Type: Bearish
As we mention above the SPX is down on this expiry so it is interesting to see that here the DJX is currently up 1.4% or 311 points so far this expiry, which is all not down to just Caterpillar.
However as we seem to be getting a repeat of the first quarter it may perhaps be worth noting that since the December 2016 expiry this index is currently up just over 10%, which is impressive in its own right.
Therefore back then when this index forced itself into a level it was uncomfortable with we saw it stuck within a 100 point range dependent on where it opened.
For example yesterday it opened at 21863 so our range would be 21800 to 21900, and although the low was 21861 the high was 21929, so therefore we feel today’s open will be critical.
Range: 21700 to 22200
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
Posted in Uncategorized
August 1st, 2017 by Richard
Again no change in the NZ for the FTSE and it is getting a bit like teeth pulling.
The new zone at 7350-7450 is still very much on the cards and even the market is behaving like it’s a done deal with the low of 7367 and the high of 7425.
Neither high nor low being close enough to call a test but it made for a marginally exciting day that essentially went nowhere but busily.
Range: 7250 / (7350) to 7450
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
For the DAX it seems the bullish sentiment that raised its head yesterday has vanished.
We do stress that the day after a ratio changes there can be a residual affect at the old level as generally it is just below the threshold and that is what we saw at the old R1 level, 12100, from Friday.
The low yesterday was 12097 so it evidently still packed enough to influence proceedings but the fact the market closed where it did suggests it too is aware of its depleted power.
Also we should mention that the current R1 level is right on the threshold so we would still expect it to work, just not for long.
Range: 12050 to 12450
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
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July 31st, 2017 by Richard
In the end it was a rather uneventful Friday for the SPX which brought to an end the first week of this expiry.
Considering the close on the previous Friday, 21st July, was 2472.54 then with all the bluster and results hyperbole the net result was actually a loss of 0.42 points.
If it wanted to this index has a 50 point Y ratio bandwidth above the zone alone so 9 point daily ranges are really very mundane but it could easily cut loose either way at any moment and this is why we are currently placing so much emphasis on the DJX.
Range: 2455 to 2505
Activity Poor
Type: On balance only just bearish
Just to repeat what we said on Friday in the NDX “it is almost the case where there is so little ratio between 5725 and 5925 it could almost be a 200 point NZ”.
As one can see the NZ has indeed moved up today and in all likelihood we shall see it at 5875-5925 tomorrow.
The question is whether it will pause here and allow the ratios to develop?
Interestingly if the zone does move again then the market would be inside it so a trading range of 5875 to 5925 might be well worthwhile taking a note of.
Range: 5875 to 6025
Activity: Good
Type: Bearish
We do still feel it is all down to the DJX at the moment and activity is still backing this up as it is easily the one where the interest lies at the moment.
It is a huge change in the ratios brought about by something as simple as R2 slipping to 22200.
Basically it now gives this index a R1 ratio bandwidth to play in that is 500 points wide.
At the start of the year we saw this index go ballistic, and that is the right word, as fundamental hopes of a windfall pushed the prices higher totally sidelining derivatives that had a very torrid time of it.
So the real question is whether or not they feel that there is still enough to go for and if at these current levels they are prepared to be so aggressive again?
Range: 21700 to 22200
Activity: Strong
Type: Bearish
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July 31st, 2017 by Richard
As we said on Friday in the FTSE it has 100 points of no ratio below it if or when the NZ changes and at its lowest it was down 103.57 points.
Irritatingly the zone hasn’t changed today but it is still very much on the cards.
Actually there are no changes at all in the ratios so as things stand 7350 could become the bottom boundary of the NZ at any time but currently it is only Y2, which seemed enough to hold this market on Friday as the low was 7339.44.
However it is only a Y ratio and the R’s don’t kick in for a distance yet.
Range: 7250 / (7350) to 7450
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance just bullish
As we said on Friday in the DAX “It could well be a case of R1 to the rescue again” and at its lowest it was down 114 points but more importantly the low was 12098 and R1 was at 12100.
There have been a few ratios to change but the most important is R1 below the zone that slips to 12050.
This makes 2 tests of R1, the first was on Monday when it stood at 12150 and the low was 12142, so hopefully this time it generates a better reaction.
All week we have been mentioning how friendless this index has been but today we are seeing the first signs of decent bullish activity so if this continues the main threat may well come from the other markets, with the focus on the DJX of course.
Range: 12050 to 12450
Activity: Good
Type: On balance bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
July 28th, 2017 by Richard
US Ratio Table 28th July 2017
As we said in the SPX yesterday “the other major aspect is Y2 has slipped slightly giving this index just a little more headroom” and it certainly took full advantage getting as high as 2484.04.
Therefore it has been a great few days for the scalpers out there but we must reiterate this is just Y2, so it is still a minimal Y ratio, and at some stage a little conviction will enter this market.
Very few changes today and not very exciting activity either but while this index is acting so sensitively it may be worth noting that 2470-2480 is still making inroads into being the next NZ so this could become a range within a range as it where.
Range: 2455 to 2505
Activity Moderate
Type: Neutral
Again as we said in the NDX yesterday “and of course Y2 was at 6000 yesterday so that today is just below the threshold” and this index got as high as 5995.77.
With the ratios weaker above the zone then being the second day since it was Y2 it is correspondingly even weaker but this level should still pack a punch nevertheless.
Also we have been mentioning the lack of development in the ratios so to clarify it is almost the case where there is so little ratio between 5725 and 5925 it could almost be a 200 point NZ, which is scary as this could translate into 1%++ point daily moves.
Range: 5825 to (6000) / 6025
Activity: Very strong
Type: Neutral
Still definitely all about the DJX at the moment and yesterday it showed its true colours we feel.
It opened just a few points to the good which meant it was still above R1 at 21700 from the very start, and the low was 21687 so if anything it acted as support although we will happily concede that yesterday was more about the fundamentals than derivatives.
It started off with Caterpillars, then McDonald’s and ended with Verizon but regardless of the cause it has certainly sparked tremendous call activity so don’t rule out derivatives just yet.
So the real tests are to come and from the market’s reaction to R2 we will certainly see how high the markets conviction rate here is.
Range: 21700 to 21900
Activity: Off the scale
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
July 28th, 2017 by Richard
EU table 28th July 2017
It seems the FTSE is still undecided so 7450 remains the critical potentially pivotal level.
The market did try to get ahead and managed to get as high as 7461.85, not as high as Wednesday, but still high enough to be far enough into the current zone to certainly establish a beachhead.
The fact it failed to do so probably says it all, but to confirm, that although the NZ hasn’t changed today, it is still looking like it will be 7350-7450 imminently.
Therefore much the same as yesterday, apart from a switch in the odds, that depending on when or if the zone changes this market has 100 points of no ratio above it or below it.
Range: 7250 / (7350) to 7450 or 7450 to 7550
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance definitely bearish
Without London providing an incentive the DAX did or does indeed look friendless.
However the close does not do justice to how long this market persevered around Y2 at 12250 and it wasn’t until early afternoon that it eventually gave way.
So although it is clearly struggling to even stay still it is also not awash with bears, as even with the slightest conviction Y2 should not have been a problem, especially considering how often it has already crossed this level both ways.
It could well be a case of R1 to the rescue again, although don’t forget the last time the market and this ratio met it was at 12150, which may still harbor memories.
Range: 12100 to 12450
Activity: Average
Type: On balance just bullish
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July 27th, 2017 by Richard
One would be forgiven for feeling a sense of Déjà vu in the SPX as Wednesday was virtually a repeat of Tuesday.
However for us there is one massive difference which is although the SPX repeated itself this allowed the DJIA to get back into line as remember on Tuesday when it hit R1 it retreated but this index did not, so yesterday just balanced the books as it were.
Although there is another massive difference today in the SPX which is their NZ has eventually moved, however it has taken so long now 2470-2480 is making noises too.
The other major aspect is Y2 has slipped slightly giving this index just a little more headroom, but at the end of the day it is still a Y ratio so the decision we feel still rests elsewhere.
Range: 2455 to 2505
Activity Very good
Type: On balance only just bearish
For the NDX again there has not been very much movement in their ratios, but what there is involves Y2 and below it comes in slightly whereas above it slips slightly.
The July expiry was a lot about the step-up in the ratio and it seems this has carried forward into this one as the first step-up we get here is at 5950, and of course Y2 was at 6000 yesterday so that today is just below the threshold so this index also has to now fight if it wants to continue ahead.
However we must point out that we are only talking about a step-up within the Y1 ratio so if it is to continue to have an effect it must rely on a very sensitive market.
Range: 5825 to (6000) / 6025
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
We have to recognise the effort the DJX made yesterday against R1 as it was with distinct purpose.
Having opened like a steam train on Tuesday and hit it headfirst getting knocked back so severely it took all the wind out of its sails for the remainder of the day to then go back the next day and get as high as 21742 shows a concerted effort.
From the open at 21690, up 77 points, it made its intentions obvious and we suspect the open again today is going to be critical.
This would be strike 3 but it is also a very high ratio level for this index to take on, more so as for the last few months it has not displayed aggressiveness of this degree at all, so it would also be bit of a sea change for them.
So another big day and with the SPX poised on Y2 it is not alone in having to now absorb some futures to progress.
Range: 21500 to 21700 or 21700 to 21900
Activity: Very good
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
July 27th, 2017 by Richard
We said yesterday the weird FTSE open would be critical and as it happened it wasted no time powering straight up and back into its NZ.
However this is where the good news ends, well apart from the fact it has 100 points of no ratio now above it if it stays there.
And this is a very big if as 7350-7450 in now looking certain to replace the current level, and is very probably the reason this market gave up the high of 7487.05 to finish struggling for all its worth holding on to 7450 (dare we mention the auction?).
Therefore at the end of the day there is a 100 points of zero ratio above or below the market which flips on 7450.
Range: 7250 / (7350) to 7450 or 7450 to 7550
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
We are certainly not convinced by the DAX although as we said it needed a friend and on seeing London start so well it was certainly very happy to join in.
Herein lays the issue for us as we are now nearly a quarter of the way through this expiry and it has hardly made any inroads into developing its ratios.
In fact R1 that saved this market on Monday (low 12142) has fallen from 12150 and at this stage that can never be bullish, even more so when it only goes as high as R2 below the zone as well.
Basically it really desperately needs a friend and London is pivotal around 7450 and the DJX has R1 to contend with so the jury is out presently.
Range: 12100 to 12450
Activity: Poor
Type: Neutral
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July 26th, 2017 by Richard
No change in the NZ yet in the SPX but it is looking ever more likely, however it is just rather tedious they are not just getting on with it.
In the meantime the ratios below the zone have given up a little of the ground they made yesterday.
Although yesterday the high was 2481.24 which was no doubt a test of Y2 at 2480, revealing a degree of sensitivity, we feel that if it were not for the DJX (see below) then this level might not have proved so effective.
Therefore we have not changed our trading range but please be aware of this level.
Range: 2430 to 2505
Activity Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
There has been a bit of movement in the NDX’s ratios, but hardly enough to change the overall picture.
Below the zone R1 drops back to 5300 whereas above it Y2 comes in slightly, but even so it is still a distance away from being in the frame.
Activity remains decent it is just it is still so underdeveloped anything is going to look good, the real aspect that needs to change is far greater development of the ratios themselves.
Range: 5825 to 6000
Activity: Good
Type: Bullish
This may seem a little strange in the DJX but we are taking the high of 21670 as a hit of R1 at 21700.
This is all due to the circumstance as 30 points shy even on a twenty thousand point index is at the limit of the range really, but just before the market opened the futures were showing the level to be as just above 21700.
It did actually open up 125 points then in the next blink it hit the high of the day and then never went near there again.
However it is not only this but the SPX went as high as 2481.24 and although the DJX retreated from its high this index hardly gave back any ground.
Also it seems that this has evidently somewhat startled the players as we have our first day of zero activity, by our measurement.
Range: 21500 to 21700
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
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