In the end it was a rather uneventful Friday for the SPX which brought to an end the first week of this expiry.
Considering the close on the previous Friday, 21st July, was 2472.54 then with all the bluster and results hyperbole the net result was actually a loss of 0.42 points.
If it wanted to this index has a 50 point Y ratio bandwidth above the zone alone so 9 point daily ranges are really very mundane but it could easily cut loose either way at any moment and this is why we are currently placing so much emphasis on the DJX.
Range: 2455 to 2505
Type: On balance only just bearish
Just to repeat what we said on Friday in the NDX “it is almost the case where there is so little ratio between 5725 and 5925 it could almost be a 200 point NZ”.
As one can see the NZ has indeed moved up today and in all likelihood we shall see it at 5875-5925 tomorrow.
The question is whether it will pause here and allow the ratios to develop?
Interestingly if the zone does move again then the market would be inside it so a trading range of 5875 to 5925 might be well worthwhile taking a note of.
Range: 5875 to 6025
We do still feel it is all down to the DJX at the moment and activity is still backing this up as it is easily the one where the interest lies at the moment.
It is a huge change in the ratios brought about by something as simple as R2 slipping to 22200.
Basically it now gives this index a R1 ratio bandwidth to play in that is 500 points wide.
At the start of the year we saw this index go ballistic, and that is the right word, as fundamental hopes of a windfall pushed the prices higher totally sidelining derivatives that had a very torrid time of it.
So the real question is whether or not they feel that there is still enough to go for and if at these current levels they are prepared to be so aggressive again?
Range: 21700 to 22200