Category: Uncategorized
September 1st, 2017 by Richard
It’s a good move in the SPX for sure but we are certainly not getting excited by it unlike many others.
Basically to us it has just drifted upwards towards its NZ, which is default mode really, and it spent all day struggling to get above the bottom boundary at 2470.
Considering its potential to cut loose in the Y ratio this “rally” has been boring and almost begrudgingly.
However now it is within its zone hopefully we will get a zone bandwidth test.
The bearish news is 2445-2555 is making a serious move to being the next NZ.
Range: 2470 to 2480
Activity Moderate
Type: Neutral
The NDX’s NZ has indeed returned to 5875-5925 but it is different this time as the last move prompted the market to fall whereas this time the market move has resulted in the zone moving.
It did open up 15.84 points at 5948.74 so it was below Y2 initially and the first test was repulsed, not far but certainly enough to notice, and a couple of hours later they tried again and evidently succeeded.
We are only talking Y2 in a triple expiry but whatever has been the driving force we have seen no evidence of the big players so for us it hasn’t been derivatives led, but now each step forward they will have to plough through Y2 and this should reveal how determined they really are.
Range: 5925 to 5975 or 5975 to 6100
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
If you recall the DJX in the first quarter and how it went ballistic, charging ever onward up through any ratio level as if they weren’t there, then yesterday was not even in the same ballpark.
So we do see it as a drift upwards rather than tax “incentivised” rally and all now within the Y2 ratio bandwidth so no issue with any ratios either, and more likely NDX inspired, and as we mention above they now have it all to prove.
In fact 55.67 points under these circumstances is not really anything but it is interesting that we are seeing money coming off the table.
Range: 21600 to 22200
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance not bearish
Posted in Uncategorized
September 1st, 2017 by Richard
It must be working in the FTSE for whatever reason they are doing it but from their open (everyone else had it around 7380 it seems) the market fell, yup, went down 0.25 points.
Back in the real world London climbed quite steadily from a strong open all the way up to the upper boundary, getting as high as 7443.68.
It has been as high as 7437.87 on the 24th August but we didn’t call that a hit, although we are yesterday’s high.
So big decision for them today, and whereas at the other end on Tuesday they were faced with the R ratios at least this end it is only Y2, so as long as one of the other indices (NDX?) doesn’t upset the apple cart it should be OK.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Very poor
Type: Neutral
Again it was a rampaging start from the DAX, up 96 points at the start, couldn’t hold onto it and drifted all the way back to Y2 at 12050.
This provided enough support and confidence to take it to their high of the day at 12115, followed shortly by their low at 12034, before finishing right on Y2.
Confidence is the key here as they took a huge fright over NK on Tuesday and don’t seem to have recovered their nerve as they seem to be leapfrogging up the ratio table from one level to the next at present.
However overall activity is positive but the ratios below the zone have eroded considerably so they would remain very susceptible to any further shocks.
Range: 11950 to 12150
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
August 31st, 2017 by Richard
As we said in the SPX “the willingness is equally definitely not there” and judging by today’s activity this is an understatement (it only just crept onto our scale).
However it is worth remembering that although this index doesn’t care at the moment it is the dominant contract by a long way so when it does wake up it will push the others aside.
Therefore we are almost at the half way mark of this triple expiry so next week it will start to build towards the rollover the week after so don’t get blindsided as this will start to stir very shortly, and it still has a very unusual amount of Y ratio present so plenty of scope.
Range: 2415 to 2470
Activity Very poor
Type: Bullish
The NDX was certainly playful yesterday and it is acting exactly as it should when surrounded by a sea of minimal Y1 ratio, it is the SPX that is being odd.
The thing is it still has 43 points to go before it encounters Y2 so plenty of scope left, but as it extends the issue is the Y1 ratio it has passed over and now leaves in its wake.
The only other aspect that may change is the NZ and today the possible move back to 5875-5925 is not so likely, but it is worth bearing these levels in mind as it’s not off the table yet, and so could still make the trading range 5925 to 5975 for example.
Range: 5825 to 5975
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
These are big changes for the DJX especially considering the lack of activity.
So it hasn’t taken much but to put them into perspective the ratios here haven’t changed for almost seven days.
It does make it a lot plainer to view but the two main differences are Y1 disappearing and the R3 appearing.
However it does make the Y ratio bandwidth a lot more defined, the only question is whether this will be enough to stimulate it into moving, either way would do.
Range: 21600 to 22200
Activity: Poor
Type: Not bearish
Posted in Uncategorized
August 31st, 2017 by Richard
FTSE & DAX Ratio Table 31st August 2017
The FTSE just did what it needed to and is once again happily ensconced back inside its zone.
Essentially it was a quiet day as the open being the previous day’s close makes it look a lot more melodramatic, but from what we could see it opened up way inside, or above 7350.
Therefore in practical terms the daily trading range was just 30 points, and we say that because around 11:00 the FTSE slipped back to 7350 (i.e. this was the “practical” low) for about 20 minutes making sure the bottom boundary was still there and solid, which you can see on a daily chart but not from just the O, H, L & C.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just not bearish
For the DAX it was just a small move overall, up 56.59, which ironically is almost the same as yesterday’s trading range, but both are hugely significant.
The open was up 81 points so most definitely above 11950.
The low, and hence the range, was only 11989 so again it was held up above 11950.
Both significant and both bullish, which is probably just as well as today the only change is 11950 which drops to R1 and makes the table above look a lot busier than it actually is as there are no other changes.
Achieving stability and now the platform is just the first step, now they have to capitalise on all this hard work.
Range: 11950 to 12150
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
August 30th, 2017 by Richard
SPX , NDX and DJX Ratio Table 30th August 2017
What we said yesterday in the SPX “climate has changed it is up to them how much they will make of it” and not very much is the answer.
The low here was 2428.20 this was only down 16.04 points so they didn’t even get near to Y2 let alone any of the R ratios.
The scope is definitely there but evidently the willingness is equally definitely not there, and really the day belonged to the NDX (see below) and this index was just playing second fiddle.
However we are now almost half way through so it won’t stay asleep for much longer.
Range: 2415 to 2470
Activity Poor
Type: Bullish
The NDX was certainly the boss yesterday and we mentioned 5825 as being a key level and it was, twice.
The open was below it (we did mention 50 points of no ratio at all) at 5785.29 and that is easily close enough to 5775, the bottom boundary, to call it a hit.
It would be even if it was during the day and the market fell 52.79 points but especially so when it’s the opening price as the vega is through the roof and any dynamic delta hedging has to be instantaneous for fear of missing the boat.
The very impressive feat was the rebound all the way back up through the zone to the upper boundary, where 5825 held it is check for quite a while.
It hasn’t attracted the players, activity only just made it onto our scale, but it is in play mode and still lots of Y1 ratio as a playground.
The only concern is the new NZ has not consolidated its position yet, after 4 days as well, so it could easily rebound to 5875-5925 once again leaving this market in bear territory.
Range: 5825 to 5975
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bullish
Activity has been the key in the DJX for a while now and today it is better but still nothing to get excited about.
The low here was 21673 so nowhere near the all important 21600 (again) which just underlines that it was the NDX ruling the show yesterday.
The low here was 0.62% and in the SPX it was 0.60% whereas in the NDX it was 0.91% and if the DJX had fallen by as much it would have taken them down to 21608.
In fact had the SPX fallen by the same then that would have been 2422 or a test of Y2, but the immediate and decisive reaction from the open by the NDX made both of these unnecessary.
Range: 21600 to 22400
Activity: Poor
Type: Neutral
Posted in Uncategorized
August 30th, 2017 by Richard
We still believe the FTSE is happier in neutral, but under such circumstances we can fully understand yesterday’s reaction.
However this is where the FTSE is unique as the open is the previous close, but where they got the market going up 0.16 point totally defeats us, but we are sure it messed with a lot of “algo’s”, so determining the real open is virtually impossible.
We believe, but cannot authenticate, it opened below the lower boundary, which of course somewhat dictates the rest of the day.
The fact it only went as low as 7289.20 means under any other situation we don’t believe this index would have gone below the bottom boundary or 7350, which makes its recapture rather crucial.
Range: 7250 to 7350 or 7350 to 7450
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bullish
No intrigue where the DAX is concerned as it opened down 92 points which was also its high of the day, so much more transparent.
On the way down in the morning the markets encounter with R2 at 11950 held it up for fifteen perhaps twenty minutes but once through it was struggling.
We don’t see the market closing on R2 as a coincidence and having traveled 255 points to get within 5 is close enough for us.
So the open is crucial again but with R ratios now all beneath and a lot of Y ratio above no surprise where we stand, and this is exactly what we hoped should have happened last week.
Range: 11750 to 11950 or 11950 to 12150
Activity: Very poor
Type: Neutral
Posted in Uncategorized
August 29th, 2017 by Richard
The SPX hasn’t wavered at all and maintained being in bearish territory and now the climate has changed it is up to them how much they will make of it.
The only aspect of being in such a huge Y ratio bandwidth is big moves, which up until now we haven’t really had, and being a triple it is normally just a matter of time before everything gets excited.
The good news is that since this expiry started last week we have seen the introduction of R1, so now it is not that far to support, although for one of the big ones R1 would be the absolute bare minimum so perhaps worth bearing that in mind, but it should at least give us an indication of the strength of any move.
Range: 2415 to 2470
Activity Very poor
Type: Bullish
On Friday the NDX closed at 5822.53 which was right on the upper boundary of its new NZ, and yesterday’s open being up 16.74 took it above it from the off.
It did get 13 points higher and the low was significant, being 5821.87, so it could have broken back inside but chose not too in what was essentially a very lackluster day.
Activity is also key here and surprising to see money coming off the table this early, and perhaps if they had noticed the NZ dropping 100 points last week they may have taken a bit longer to decide.
No surprise then that 5825 is a key level today, and below it they have 50 points of no ratio at all, not that the ratio has developed much overall still.
Range: 5775 to 5825 or 5825 to 5975
Activity: Moderate
Type: Not bearish
In the DJX it has all been about activity recently, more importantly the lack thereof.
Today it has only just crept onto our scales so it is virtually another “did not register” but we suspect today should shake a few players out of their trees.
Of course no change in the ratios and here the first line of support would be their NZ’s upper boundary.
As we said Monday last week when its low was 21600 this is a very significant level as once inside its zone there is 200 points of no ratio at all below it.
Range: 21600 to 22400
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
Posted in Uncategorized
August 29th, 2017 by Richard
As we said at the end of last week “yesterday we said the FTSE seemed happy to be in neutral” by which we meant the NZ, or Neutral Zone or just plain zone, and it evidently was.
Closing down for the long weekend you literally can’t get more neutral than the middle of its zone.
Obviously it will have a little bit of catch-up today but it has plenty of scope (either way) and as there are no changes in the ratios today it is still the case that there is less ratio above the zone than below it.
One aspect we have to mention though is the close on Friday turned a positive real time close of +4.58 into the loss courtesy of the auction losing a whopping 10.18 points.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
The DAX must have read what we said as yesterday they gapped down 62 points at the open to 12105, but more importantly this was outside their NZ.
Interestingly yesterday Y2 was at 12100 and not only was that where the market opened but the low was 12064, not very far below it.
Conversely the high was 12173 but this does not do justice to how long this index traded around 12150, or the bottom boundary, but still failed to break back into it.
Now it has achieved its breakout we are sure it doesn’t want to go straight back but it is certainly not acting very bearish so it just may not have a choice.
Range: 11950 to 12150 or 12150 to 12250
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bullish
Posted in Uncategorized
August 28th, 2017 by Richard
Judging by the movement today in the SPX we think 2420-2430 has given up on being the next NZ, at least for now.
Therefore this is generally bullish if only for the feeling of relief but mainly because the zone is now 30 points above the current market.
The only blot on the horizon is the other two and having already got or been into bullish territory they will now encounter futures selling so it may well be all down to how they react to this resistance.
Range: 2415 to 2470
Activity Poor
Type: On balance only just bearish
Well that was a very short foray into bullish territory for the NDX.
The market did get as high as 5870.47 however, at the end of the day, the important number is the close, and that was back safely inside its newly fallen NZ.
Therefore today the open is going to be crucial and with no changes to the ratios and activity at the level it is it doesn’t look like it’s that keen to go anywhere.
Range: 5775 to 5825 or 5825 to 6000
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance bullish
For the third day in a row there is no change in any of the DJX’s ratios, and for the second day in a row activity didn’t manage to make it onto our scale.
In fact last Thursday it was a case of activity just barely making it so there is a case to argue three days of no real activity, which will not help push this index in either direction.
It is in a huge Y ratio bandwidth but as this is a triple it needs to up its game to deal with the vastly increased numbers and that is exactly what we are not seeing, so for us we are back to the open determining which 100 point bandwidth it will trade in.
Range: 21600 to 22400
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
Posted in Uncategorized
August 28th, 2017 by Richard
The FTSE 100 is closed today.
Range:
Activity:
Type:
Three NZ bandwidth tests in a row for the DAX is quite frankly astonishing.
On Friday the high was 12249 and the low was 12132 and as we said it is like a caged animal trying to break out.
The question is whether or not London being closed today is akin to someone forgetting to lock the cage door?
Today the open will be crucial and is the one weapon they haven’t used yet.
The ratios are slightly firmer on both sides and in both Y2 has come in slightly but all about the zone today of course.
Range: 12150 to 12250
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
Posted in Uncategorized
