As we said in the SPX “the willingness is equally definitely not there” and judging by today’s activity this is an understatement (it only just crept onto our scale).
However it is worth remembering that although this index doesn’t care at the moment it is the dominant contract by a long way so when it does wake up it will push the others aside.
Therefore we are almost at the half way mark of this triple expiry so next week it will start to build towards the rollover the week after so don’t get blindsided as this will start to stir very shortly, and it still has a very unusual amount of Y ratio present so plenty of scope.
Range: 2415 to 2470
Activity Very poor
The NDX was certainly playful yesterday and it is acting exactly as it should when surrounded by a sea of minimal Y1 ratio, it is the SPX that is being odd.
The thing is it still has 43 points to go before it encounters Y2 so plenty of scope left, but as it extends the issue is the Y1 ratio it has passed over and now leaves in its wake.
The only other aspect that may change is the NZ and today the possible move back to 5875-5925 is not so likely, but it is worth bearing these levels in mind as it’s not off the table yet, and so could still make the trading range 5925 to 5975 for example.
Range: 5825 to 5975
These are big changes for the DJX especially considering the lack of activity.
So it hasn’t taken much but to put them into perspective the ratios here haven’t changed for almost seven days.
It does make it a lot plainer to view but the two main differences are Y1 disappearing and the R3 appearing.
However it does make the Y ratio bandwidth a lot more defined, the only question is whether this will be enough to stimulate it into moving, either way would do.
Range: 21600 to 22200
Type: Not bearish