Category: Uncategorized
November 28th, 2017 by Richard
SPX , NDX and DJX Ratio Table 28th Nov 2017
That is strike 2 for the SPX on R2 as it got as high as 2606.41 yesterday.
The thing is it hasn’t retreated either so it could well have another go at it and next time would be 3 and out, but also the ratios are stronger below the current market and weaker above it, so it is weakening all the while.
It is perhaps worthwhile therefore to have a look at R3 as today that has slipped to 2630 from 2625, which is actually where it started this expiry, but in the meantime, has been as high as 2615.
So, we would call 2615 a step-up, or perhaps the start of it as it was only R3 for a day before it scuttled back to 2625.
Range: 2590 to 2605
Activity Poor
Type: Neutral
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The NZ in the NDX is still on the move jumping up yet again, now reaching 6275-6325.
However, there is still Y ratio either side of this new level so with almost a full three weeks to go we very much doubt we have seen the last of them.
Much more importantly Y2 now starts at 6400 so this is now a crucial level, but if the ratios here continue to tumble the market may not actually have to move to find itself back in Y1.
Either way it is still looking bullish here but there is still that uncomfortable trading range associated with being in the Y2 ratio bandwidth, and with yesterday’s open at 6409.52 that would have made it 6400 to 6425 and the low was 6392 and the high 6420.
Range: 6325 to 6400 or 6400 to 6525
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
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The DJX really gave R2 a solid test getting as high as 23638 yesterday.
The first test it got to 23617 back on Tuesday 21st but as that was first contact a bit of licence just for the surprise factor is allowed.
Then it was 23605 and on Friday 23599, so yesterday it knew what to expect and gave it everything and still didn’t even establish a beachhead.
However, just like the SPX, it hasn’t retreated very far, in fact probably the opposite as it looks like it is setting itself up to employ a different tactic, one that will in all probability involve an opening gap.
At least there is some activity but at the end of the day it does look like the DJX needs the SPX to breach its R2 level, which does mean that this index is being integrated back into normality.
Range: 23100 to 23600 or 23600 to 24100
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 28th, 2017 by Richard
FTSE and DAX Ratio Table 28th Nov 2017
The FTSE never looked comfortable being above its zone but one has to give it 10 out of 10 for trying.
It tested the upper boundary very first thing then went on to test it on two further occasions before it eventually broke, and Monday was also the third day in a row it had been trying to break back down.
However, there was a huge degree of synchronicity across the markets yesterday as at 16:10 GMT exactly both these two EU benchmarks took on their respective upper boundaries while the SPX fought with R2 at 2605 and the DJX with R2 at 23600.
Range: 7300 to 7400
Activity: Very poor
Type: On balance just bearish
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In yet another coincidence we are so fond of the DAX managed to finish literally dead centre of its zone.
However, it’s path was different from London’s as here they started below the upper boundary, recovered strongly, hit the day’s high (13117), came back to test 13050 again, shallower recovery and then on the second visit broke below it and the rest of the afternoon was about 2 failed attempts to break back above.
Basically, the whole day revolved around their zones upper boundary.
Little change in the ratios today and hopefully it has learnt its lesson and stays happily inside its NZ today.
Range: 12950 to 13050
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 27th, 2017 by Richard
Well it did indeed happen in the SPX on Friday as it tested R2.
And indeed, we were worried as it being Black Friday not many were interested in the markets but it got as high as 2604.21, within 0.79-point, so definitely a hit but whether anyone noticed is a different matter.
The only changes are the higher ratios below the zone firm up otherwise it is as we were, with it all to go through again today we suspect.
Range: 2590 to 2605
Activity Poor
Type: On balance definitely bullish
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The NDX just goes to prove that there were enough people around to play if they wanted to, as they have easily managed the highest level of activity so far this expiry (excluding the rollover).
And we eventually have the move up, or should we say catapult up, in the NZ it is still way below the current market.
However, the strength in the ratios below the new zone and the weakness in those above it suggests this is not over, and we still have three weeks to go.
The market is still in the Y2 ratio bandwidth so we should still see the 25-point “uncomfortable” trading range, but if they continue to collapse like they are above the zone this might not be so come the end of the day.
Range: 6375 to 6500
Activity: Very good
Type: Bearish
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Strike 3 or not in the DJX but it tested R2 again on Friday with the high of 23599, which was right on it.
It knows what’s there and if it goes again that would be strike 4 and if it wasn’t for the SPX simultaneously coming up against their R2 we wonder if it would have held here yet again.
It certainly scared the players away but it is very probably going to be a rinse and repeat again today.
Range: 23100 to 23600 or 23600 to 24100
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 27th, 2017 by Richard
The FTSE is very unconvincing at the moment and Friday just exemplified this.
It actually opened a bit better then began to drift before testing the upper boundary again for about half an hour, then dipped below and drifted to the low of 7389.54 which then managed to create a reaction and it quickly recovered to above the zone.
The thing is that it then tested 7400 twice more during the rest of the day and the close leaves it back within spitting distance.
We are beginning to suspect the NZ needs to move first to force the market as it doesn’t seem capable of achieving it on its own, and furthermore the next test of the upper boundary would be strike 3.
Range: 7300 to 7400 or 7400 to 7550
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
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Considering we were expecting a breakout in the DAX after Thursday NZ bandwidth test then this was also rather unconvincing.
It opened below the upper boundary, crept up to it, stalled for about 45 minutes, then managed to break through, albeit rather explosively, around half past 11.
Admittedly it got as high as 13160 before coming all the way back, but significantly managing a close above the zone in a position very similar to London.
The ratios are firmer across the board with the Y ratios below the zone at last beginning to fill in.
Range: 12950 to 13050 or 13050 to 13250
Activity: Average
Type: On balance just fractionally bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 24th, 2017 by Richard
SPX , NDX and DJX Ratio Table 24th Nov 2017
It is such a big day for the SPX it is a concern that it will very probably happen today when no one is around.
Of course, we are referring to R2 at 2605 which is a very solid R2, by which we mean closer to R3 than R1, but there is no disguising the fact that under these particular circumstances there is no doubt its power will be diminished, the question is by how much?
At the other end there is R1 as well, so no matter which way it turns it will have a decision to make.
Range: 2590 to 2605
Activity Moderate
Type: Neutral
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To recap here in the NDX on Tuesday it had fun and games with our step-up level 6375, eventually closing on it having got as high as 6380.07.
So, on Wednesday it opened up 6-points but at 6384.13 was still above it and which would make our “uncomfortable” range 6375 to 6400.
The low was 6371.74 and the high was 6391.16.
Today 6375 becomes the Y2 level and R1 has slipped slightly, so this level remains critical and depending on the open the daily range should be a multiple of 25 based on that.
Range: 6375 to 6450
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
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No doubt that the DJX now knows exactly what is waiting for it at 23600.
On Tuesday the high was 23617 and on Wednesday it was 23605 but what it doesn’t know is that today it has dropped to R2.
However, having just dropped today it is just below the threshold, so should still carry a good punch, if it wasn’t for this being strike 3 as well.
Of course, what we have said about the SPX above, applies just as much here as well, so if they wanted to affect a breakthrough then all the dominoes are lined up.
Range: 23100 to 23600 or 23600 to 24100
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 24th, 2017 by Richard
The FTSE got a fright very first thing and found itself back inside its zone, low 7373.31, and staring towards the bottom boundary.
Luckily the bulls stepped in and it took a couple of hours before they recaptured the upper boundary, but the fact they did as much as the fight itself is good news.
Interestingly the real time close was 7414.45 whereas on Wednesday it was 7414.55, so good fight but hardly convincing.
The only aspect to come out of yesterday was perhaps a twitch in 7450-7550 in wanting to be the next NZ.
Very early days but we just say what we see, or the numbers throw up.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
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If the DAX thought it could just park up for the holidays it got a very rude awakening with an open that fell 72-points to 12943, which was more importantly below the bottom boundary.
The low was 12921 which was a severe test of the bottom boundary but the reaction was instant and here they were back testing the bottom boundary in minutes recapturing it within half an hour.
But the fun did not stop there as the high was 13049 which was a test of the upper boundary.
The fact it again closed as near as an index this size can get to the middle of its zone suggests neutrality, but the NZ bandwidth test suggests otherwise as we should therefore see a breakout today.
Range: 12950 to 13050
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 23rd, 2017 by Richard
FTSE and DAX Ratio Table 23rd Nov 2017
Sometimes one can’t help but feel a bit sorry for equities in the FTSE as you could see they really wanted it to go better on the Budget, and most probably couldn’t work out why anyone was selling futures.
Trouble is they are now in R1 ratio so every step forward comes with this degree of dynamic delta hedging, so the high yesterday came in at 7460.91 to no surprise.
Of course, they will get accustomed to this level of activity and it is only because recently this index has been in or around its zone that it is not up to the aggressiveness we find elsewhere.
The fact it was heading back towards its upper boundary but the auction reversed that and added 4.47-points shows the bulls are there and getting up to speed.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Activity: Moderate
Type: Not bullish
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With the DAX finishing as close to the middle of its zone as such a big index can get raises our eyebrows, and as everyone knows we are no lovers of coincidence.
The problem is how to interpret it, and it could just be coincidence, but we think not, especially as the low was 13008 and the real time close was 13012, so it looks to us as if this is where it chose to be.
Aggression comes and goes in the DAX and it may well be after the US indices, especially the DJX, hit serious ratio levels they think a time-out is necessary.
Don’t forget that there is precious little ratio underpinning this index, although today we have got our first improvement with Y2 strengthening.
Range: 12950 to 13050
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 22nd, 2017 by Richard
The SPX was left hanging by the other two as they both reached their levels before this index leaving it a bit behind.
Although, to be fair, it blasted right past R1 at 2590 with an open that was up 7.03-points at 2589.17, which was also the low so it obviously never even got a look in.
Thin markets, time of year, take your pick, but suffice it to say this is very unsurprising.
They might pull the open trick again but 2605 is a very serious R2, and we have seen this ignored, although normally on the Friday, so this is very aggressive for this index no matter the circumstances.
Range: 2590 to 2605
Activity Poor
Type: On balance bearish
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The NDX also benefitted from an opening gap up, here it was 28.30-points to 6336.91.
The difference was that here on Monday they had already encountered Y2 at 6325 (high 6324.59) so they knew they had a target to leapfrog.
We also mentioned the step-up level, for just such a scenario, which was 6375 so the close is rather coincidental as was the high yesterday of 6380.07.
All three seem to have taken it to their respective next levels before the holiday whistle, which is very aggressive and means they all have their work cut out for them thin markets and record highs (who would have thought) at Thanksgiving notwithstanding.
Range: 6325 to 6425
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance bullish
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Yesterday was most certainly an informative day in the DJX, but perhaps not for the reasons originally envisaged.
Just like the SPX it managed a 70-point gap up at the open which was also the low, and which was also right on a big figure, here 23500.
Within minutes it was plain that the 100-point range would be northwards rather than southwards of this point and it duly went as high as 23617.
However, the high does not do justice to not only how long the index stayed at 23600 but how abruptly it stopped the headlong charge.
This of course was more to do with the fact it was R3 rather than the top of the “uncomfortable” trading range.
Another opening gambit perhaps today, but again no matter the circumstance this is very aggressive for this index, unless of course it is still in its bubble.
Range: 23100 to 23600 or 23600 to 24100
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 22nd, 2017 by Richard
Ah welcome to the Dec expiry as the FTSE blasts out of its NZ, or to put it another way its comfort zone.
It did hold it back for a while, about an hour, but right on the stroke of midday it took off, and above the zone had turned R1 as well.
Any other expiry we would call this punchy but for the mighty Dec more often than not it doesn’t concern itself unless it’s DR and above.
However, it was hardly a convincing break, in the end just 11-points, but it’s a start and now leaves it in the R1 ratio bandwidth.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bullish
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No impression about it that is just plain aggressive from the DAX.
However, that is all the easy yards now as it got as high as 13209, just spitting distance from R1.
It has taken on R1 in last few expiries but found R2 difficult to cope with although its reaction was generally annoyance rather than retreat.
But this expiry R1 is backed up by the full spectrum of ratio starting at 13250 so it is definitely game on now.
Range: 13050 to 13250
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 21st, 2017 by Richard
The SPX opened just below the upper boundary, suffered a little knock back and it took about 40 or so minutes but once it broke through it was what we would describe as quietly confidant.
This is in fact exactly what activity suggests as well and as we are in the holiday week so it is good to get this much.
The first hurdle is now dead ahead, being R1 at 2590, and how it reacts to this will very probably dictate this expiry.
We still think a test of R2 is on the cards though, if only because the US does love a big figure on the holiday.
Range: 2570 to 2580 or 2580 to 2590
Activity Poor
Type: On balance only just bullish
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No change in any of the NDX’s ratios and more importantly no change in the NZ.
It did open a few points higher at 6319.57 and significantly went as high as 6324.59 for strike 1 against Y2 at 6325.
Therefore, so far at least, this index is conforming to expectations, although for the first day, like the DJX, we do sometimes see a bit of feet finding.
Of course, with the SPX now so close to their R1 and this index to their Y2 the combination can sometimes be more powerful than just individually.
Range: 6025 to 6325
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
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It was bit of an odd day in the DJX yesterday as it didn’t conform to expectations.
To be honest we probably wouldn’t normally give it a second thought but because we are being so sensitive over its possible return to normality we are analysing every little move.
The open was 23370 which if it was feeling uncomfortable with the R1 ratio it is in then the trading range should have been 23300 to 23400, and it never went near the bottom, not an issue, but did go as high as 23456, which may be.
It was the first day, but today will eliminate that excuse, so it could be an informative day.
Range: 23100 to 23600
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
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