Category: Uncategorized
January 17th, 2018 by Richard
Yesterday in the NDX it was actually a Y1 ratio bandwidth test.
Of course, as well as our trading range, but the high was 6835.79, Y2 was at 6825, and the low was 6719.11, and the top of the NZ was 6725.
This means there should be a breakout today, which judging by the overall disposition of this index over the course of this expiry does not bode well for it being in its zone today.
The ratios are stronger below the zone and weaker above it, but it looks like this index is going to go all the way to the expiry now, but well done for even getting close.
Range: 6725 to 6900
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance only just bearish
At least they are not ignoring Feb anymore, but the level of activity is slightly deceiving as the benchmark is so low, obviously because of being ignored.
So, it still has a very long way to go, but it has to start somewhere.
The NZ has risen to 6575-6625, again a start but still way below the current market.
However, we do see Y2 appear above the zone, which just highlights how much Y1 there is, and so ample opportunity for the zone to carry on adjusting.
Range: 6625 to 7025
Activity: Outstanding
Type: On balance bullish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 17th, 2018 by Richard
No change in the ratios in the DJX but more importantly no change in that position.
To us its one but in actuality it may be an amalgamation of many, just in case there was any doubt.
Being the rollover, this could easily be the catalyst, but as they have been so confident throughout then it could be down to the wire, only time will tell.
Range: 24900 to …..
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
It went on quite a journey yesterday, getting as high as 26086, but in one of those coincidences we love it managed to finish right back on Y2.
Of course, this is Feb so it shouldn’t really impact until from now on, but this index has been a law unto itself so normal “rules” haven’t applied for a year now.
Activity is high but that is because the benchmark is so very low, so all eyes on what might or might not be rolled today…..
Range: 25400 to 25800 or 25800 to 27000
Activity: Very strong
Type: Bullish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 17th, 2018 by Richard
The total ratio rout in the SPX continues, although the rate of change has decreased somewhat.
However, when you get 2805, which was R2 yesterday (nb. High 2807.54) dropping an entire level to R1 today, then the ROC is still very high indeed.
The introduction of Y1 above the zone is only to be expected, and as the Y ratio bandwidth now stretches 100-points just above the zone alone, then further NZ changes are definitely on the cards.
Although, please note that this market is now back into its Y ratios so moves such as yesterday are normal under these conditions.
Range: 2780 to 2805
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bearish
The Feb SPX expiry is at least trying to make the best out of what has happened in Jan.
Of course, the main difference here is that the NZ is already 2720-2730, so significantly higher than Jan.
More importantly we have ratio on either side going up to R2.
And today R1 above the zone has slipped to 2805, leaving the market back in the Y ratios here as well.
Range: 2730 to 2805
Activity: Strong
Type: Neutral
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 17th, 2018 by Richard
Having closed at 13202 last Thursday we definitely thought it wouldn’t be able to hold still for almost a whole week.
Especially considering it had been on that 700-point journey between the two R1 ratio levels either side of the NZ.
The US markets may have risen 4.5% but here 700-points is 5.3%, but more importantly, and if you get the timing right, it is down to R1 (the open on day 1 of this expiry was 13211) then all the way up to the other R1 and then back to the NZ, so in fact it was a 1400-point move, or 10.6% AND in 4 weeks.
Doesn’t get as many headlines but it sure gets our vote.
Range: 13150 to 13250
Activity: Poor
Type: Bullish
In Feb the DAX is still struggling with the ratios above the zone.
This has not been helped as the zone here should dovetail with Jan’s but still hasn’t quite managed to make the move, and all the while it procrastinates it remains hard to build.
Interesting thought for you as if this index is as perfect in this expiry as it just has been, then the respective R1 ratio levels are 12950 and 13800, a mouth-watering 850-points, or 6.44% and if you get there and back again even better.
Range: 13150 to 13600
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 17th, 2018 by Richard
The FTSE is still very much fixated by 7750 and after the early strength gave way had a good tussle with it all afternoon.
It did get down to 7744 at one stage then recovered and had a very tepid last half hour and in real time actually closed at 7747.18.
The auction got it back above, however they weren’t listening as after all that effort R2 has moved to 7800 as expected.
However, it is the rollover, the NZ hasn’t moved, so that’s a big miss, which is going to make the next few days to the expiry potentially very volatile.
Range: 7700 to 7800
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bearish
Rather interestingly the ratios have weakened slightly above the zone in Feb which has resulted in the identical R1 ratio bandwidth.
We suspect it will be far too much to ask to get some degree of similarity in the NZ’s as well, but at least it’s a start.
Very little to add at this stage but perhaps worth noting was at this stage in the Jan expiry the market seemed more in tune with the upcoming expiry than the one about to expire.
Range: 7700 to 7800
Activity: Average
Type: On balance definitely bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 16th, 2018 by Richard
SPX Jan to Feb Rollover 16th Jan 2018
The story in the SPX this expiry has been the utter decimation of the ratios above the zone, which continues.
Again, as we said this is about as bullish as you can get, but like an advancing army if you go too far too fast your supply lines get overstretched, although here it’s not about supply but rather support.
As an indication the fall in the ratios is roughly 32%, which on a daily basis is just huge.
R2 slips to 2805 today, but at this rate of decline it could easily be 2815 by the end of the day, but it is now a question of whether the rollover or expiry will bring a dose of reality.
Range: 2780 to 2805
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance bearish
Feb in a word, shell-shocked.
The start of the year is traditionally very quiet and as an intermediary to an intermediary especially so.
But, when one considers, that this index is up over 100-points in the Jan expiry then Feb is struggling from the start, and if you throw heightened aggressiveness into the equation and all you got is R2 then it is virtually a clean sheet.
Albeit one that goes both ways, although markets are only interested in one at the moment.
Range: 2785 to 2820
Activity: Good
Type: Neutral
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
NDX Jan to Feb Rollover 16th Jan 2018
Good old NDX still adding strikes right at the end, hopefully these ones will attract some activity.
Friday took the NDX out of its zone, and so far, it is the only one Stateside that is even looking like enjoying a conventional rollover, so a big few days for it.
Otherwise the ratios continue to build strongly below the zone, and above Y2 comes in a bit, but it is very much against the run of play, so if it gets tested it is an unknown entity.
Range: 6725 to 6825
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance bearish
Poor old Feb in the NDX, it looks like everyone is just ignoring it.
Perhaps that’s why they need to add so many strikes, just to get attention?
Intermediary to intermediary, time of the year, so far too quick (for the record up 292.22-points) or all combined, but what little ratio that is present is just dire.
Range: 6525 to ….
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
DJX Jan to Feb Rollover 16th Jan 2018
Jan was always about 24900 here in the DJX and for those who follow this commentary then this being the target was no surprise.
The fact it breached it at the start of the third week was only noteworthy because we thought it may have been a bit premature.
We had that minor adjustment, minor only because of the magnitude of the original position, in its own right it was a big, which caused a slight stumble, but so far, this index is up 1120-points.
So, the only thing that remains is when “job done” applies.
Range: 24900 to …..
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance not bullish
For Feb it is going to be all about whether or not that enormous position gets rolled.
Ironically with so little ratio above the zone and the market already being on Y2 then this is an expiry that has no ratio impediment to slow the market down.
Although, just like the SPX, this is a two-way street even though everyone at present is only going one-way.
Range: 25800 to ……
Activity: Poor
Type: Not bullish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 16th, 2018 by Richard
Again, the FTSE stayed in the R2 ratio bandwidth but again found it very heavy going.
However, the rollover will be focusing minds, being tomorrow, and we have today seen the Y1 ratio bandwidth increase and now goes all the way up to 7700.
We mentioned yesterday that 7750 was right on the threshold, and it still is, so we would also expect the R1 bandwidth to be 7700 to 7800 by the end of today.
Nevertheless, the main aspect has to be whether or not the NZ will make the move to 7600-7700.
Range: 7750 to 7850
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance only just not bullish
No change in any of Feb’s ratios, although they are actually weaker around the market but stronger further out either side.
The real issue is activity and what we are seeing is ok for this stage, but from here on in we should start to see it get a bit more exciting.
Of course, the main aspect is R3 at 7800 and DR just above that and how these two develop over the next few days will be crucial.
Range: 7750 to 7800
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bullish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
The DAX managed to finish dead centre of its zone so the rollover did manage to trump the NZ bandwidth test.
Actually, it came very close to executing another one yesterday as the high was right on the upper boundary at 13250, so we were getting rather nervous when the low of 13173 was reached.
However, we don’t think that is close enough to the bottom boundary, especially as it was so drifty the market, but two bandwidth tests in a row we suspect not even the rollover could trump that.
Range: 13150 to 13250
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bearish
The ratios below the zone have fallen which has had the effect of introducing new levels so that there is now a more complete range.
Still makes it an odd start as below we go all the way up to DR, whereas above it only just makes it into R1.
And as these levels are exponential that is a very big differential.
Range: 13150 to 13550
Activity: Very good
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 15th, 2018 by Richard
FTSE Jan to Feb Rollover 15th Jan 2018
The FTSE held onto its R2 bandwidth, even managing to eke out another record high, but it wasn’t all plain sailing.
It struggled for the first hour and then when it finally did achieve some traction it found it very heavy going, which is a concern.
It had a scare early afternoon and fell to 7752.53 which tested and found support at R2 but again, hardly convincing.
7600-7700 still looks good to be the next NZ as the ratios are weaker above the zone, but worth bearing in mind as 7750 has only just held onto R2 status so a small tweak will see it drop to R1, which would then make the R1 ratio bandwidth 7700 to 7800, with 7800 becoming R2 and being backed up with R2 at 7850.
Range: 7750 to 7850
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
For our first look at Feb the most notable aspect is the NZ is already at 7550-7650, which if Jan’s does move this would actually be below it.
Therefore, the overlapping area, where they both have commonality is 7600-7650, which might be worth bearing in mind for Wednesday.
The other standout aspect is here 7800 is already R3, where in Jan we are anticipating it to become R2, but both have 7850 as a serious level.
If it were the DJX this would all be a moot point, but in London, although it has its moments, these are levels that hurt.
Range: 7750 to 7800
Activity: Outstanding
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
HRA DAX Jan to Feb Rollover 15th Jan 2018
The DAX carrying on from its perfect expiry managed a NZ bandwidth test of Friday, adding a bit more icing to the cake.
The low was 13168 (bottom boundary 13150) and the high was 13265 (13250), so slightly skewed but a few points on a thirteen-thousand-point index is to be expected.
Rather annoyingly this tends to precede a breakout which could scupper the perfect ending, but with the rollover looming this may just trump the test.
But whatever happens in the next couple of days calling the low and high 700-points apart on such a large index is more than enough for us.
Range: 13150 to 13250 or 13250 to 13450
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
This has got to be one of the most unusual starts we have ever seen in the DAX, and for once we certainly don’t need to mention the slow-build.
Below the zone there are but 3 levels to remember, or make note of, and above this is also the case but this is due to the fact there is virtually nothing there.
This scenario should not need too much explaining but perhaps a cautionary note as it is still very early days.
Range: 13150 to 13600
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 12th, 2018 by Richard
There is the move in the SPX’s NZ, rising to 2695-2705 as expected, but still a way below the market.
However, as we said yesterday, that’s as bullish as you can get and it did take all morning to get convincingly above 2755, but once it did it really took off.
This change neatly highlights the situation here as all that now remains above the market is R2, but as it has come so far so fast and without a shadow of doubt the nearest R ratio below is 147-points away, so it is not without risk even if it is choosing to ignore it.
Range: 2755 to 2780
Activity Average
Type: On balance only just bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
As we said yesterday in the NDX “but with the rollover starting next week we very much doubt we have seen the last of them” and here we are with number 4 for this expiry putting it at 6675-6725.
This was on the back of a high level of activity but it also puts it almost dead centre of the new zone.
We would like to think that’s it for this index in this expiry and it will stay zone-bound until Wednesday, but considering it is up 242-points (3.74%) this expiry so far that is a tall order.
Range: 6675 to 6725
Activity: Outstanding
Type: On balance bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Activity in the DJX is back and hardly surprising what type it is considering the move yesterday and the fact it’s the rollover next week.
It doesn’t actually change anything and for the record the next step-up level is not until 26500, so even if that were a ratio level in its own right it still means this market is currently in a 1600-point bandwidth.
Range: 24900 to ……
Activity: Very good
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
January 12th, 2018 by Richard
The FTSE really was fixated on R2 and one has to respect its perseverance.
First thing it attacked, getting as high as the low 60’s, then a pullback of 30-points, but it wasn’t quite finished and repeated this again early afternoon.
In the end they had to wait until the last half hour when they desperately clung on and then had to fight even harder in the auction.
That made it strike three over three days and strike three on the day.
No change in the ratios above the zone but it was hardly a convincing performance but they did it, the question is whether they can hold onto it.
Range: 7700 to 7750 or 7750 to 7850
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance decidedly bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Again, the large activity continues in the DAX and one has to question what it was all in aid of.
This time the large additional position put on the day before has been unwound, or better still, reversed, which makes that the case for all of them.
No wonder the index has retreated back to the sanity of its zone.
So, at the start of its rollover the DAX has been down to R1 (low 12745) and up to R1 (it was 13450 and the high was 13425) and now its back in its zone, so all in all the perfect expiry apart from one minor point, which is it’s a week early.
Range: 13150 to 13250
Activity: Very strong
Type: Bearish
[affilinet_performance_ad size=468×60]
Posted in Uncategorized
