Category: Uncategorized
July 2nd, 2018 by Richard
FTSE & DAX Ratio Table 2nd July 2018
Deja-vu in the FTSE as this is the second time this expiry that the bulls, who are still trying very hard obviously, have failed to hold on to it being in the zone.
Last time it was the last hour of trading, this time it took a massive drop of 24.84-points courtesy of the auction to do it, which is simply not good.
Obviously, the auction is not a level playing field, and definitely opaque, but in real time it was very informative to see the market drop all the way back down to the zones bottom boundary, with the intraday low of 7650.80 before recovering well, which is a far more natural reaction.
No idea, interest or motivation as to what shenanigans caused such a massive drop, but at least they didn’t have any more PME’s as they did two days running earlier in the week, but it will make for an interesting start today and 7650 remains a key level.
Range: 7550 to 7650 or 7650 to 7750
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
The DAX remains just as friendless as it has been all expiry so far.
Perhaps the situation has actually deteriorated.
When we last looked at this index R2 was loitering around 12200 so it was interesting to see the closing low was 12177 last week.
However, as you can see from the above table R2 below the zone has gone, and this itself has dropped a further 200-points, so all in all it is in a rather bad way.
Rising ratios above the zone, falling ones below it, on top of a zone which itself is falling means three bearish indicators.
The only saving grace is that there is little corresponding ratio above the zone, so if it does find a friend there is little resistance, but as things stand there is also no ratio support at all.
The only other positive note is that activity is not only high but unambiguously bullish.
Range: 11950 to 12450
Activity: Strong
Type: Bullish
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June 29th, 2018 by Richard
SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 29th June 2018
It is still all about the respective zones, and here in the SPX there are now the only one still below theirs and therefore in bearish territory.
The trouble is that now this index is faced with the proverbial double-edged sword, as their zone is indicating a drop to either 2720-2730 or 2695-2705.
So, as things stand, the market is in the middle of these two, but either way this means it is a lot closer to the position the other two are in, but the problem is that it would means a falling zone, which in itself is very bearish.
More importantly, this index has yet to test any R ratios, so at the moment it is wandering aimlessly around in a troubling persistently wide Y ratio bandwidth, and that is never good.
Worth pointing out that Y2 was 2690, now 2695, and yesterday’s low was 2691.99, so maybe it is this sensitive and that is all it needs this trip.
Range: 2655 / (2695) to 2745
Activity Moderate
Type: On balance only just bearish
No change in any of the NDX’s ratios, but to be fair it has all been about the zone here as well.
On Wednesday it had a tremendous bounce off their zones bottom boundary, hitting the intraday low of 6968.30, which was made all the more impressive as that was absolutely minimal drawdown from 6975, especially considering the momentum that had built up as this was at the bottom of a 160-point collapse.
This market did get as low yesterday as 6950.23 (the next level down being a multiple of 25) before taking full advantage of both the DJX and the SPX.
It evidently didn’t take very much encouragement at all to stimulate the bulls, and the fact that it closed 6-points above the upper boundary should also be noted.
The other very noteworthy development is the level of activity, which hasn’t changed the ratio dynamic as such, but certainly changes the environment, and we can’t stress enough how significant the return of one, or perhaps more, big players to the arena actually is.
Range: 6975 to 7025 or 7025 to (7275) / 7375
Activity: Outstanding
Type: Bearish
The DJX is certainly the index that is calling the shots at present.
Yesterday couldn’t have been a more precise test of the bottom boundary of this indexes zone, hitting the intraday low of 23997, and judging by the immediate reaction and subsequent 300-point bounce they really didn’t want to drop into bearish territory.
This, more likely than not, is what helped the SPX to bounce off their Y2 level, so that index may not be as sensitive as yesterday implies in isolation.
At the end of the day this index has a quite staggering, and unique, 1000-point zone to play in, so despite rather decent levels of activity, truly anything can happen here.
Range: 24000 to 25000
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance bearish
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June 27th, 2018 by Richard
FTSE & DAX Ratio Table 27th June 2018
As we said last time “Poor old London and the FTSE as it seems others did indeed have this index’s fate in their hands, although they had their chances, but just failed to take them”.
They tried ever so hard on Friday to get this index back inside its zone, in fact it was camped out for well over an hour on 7650 before they managed it.
Of course, the rout on Monday didn’t help, and don’t forget 7550 was on strike two as well, so no surprise then when that gave way.
However, the FTSE’s travails didn’t end there as yesterday they tried desperately to get back above 7550 and got scuppered by the auction, again.
Today, 7500 getting promoted to R3 has probably muddied the waters.
Suffice it to say that it has only just made the grade, whereas the old level at 7450 is by far a much more robust and therefore significant R3.
Range: 7450 / 7500 to 7550
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bullish
Basically, everything we said last time in the DAX, including the bit from the time before that, holds just as true now, so please find it below.
The only difference now is that yesterday the DAX hit a low of 12188, so with R2 at 12200 the ratios have, or are doing, all that they can.
“As we said “and, in a nutshell, that is going to be the problem here (very underdeveloped) for this expiry as the ratios, on either side, currently only go as high as R2, which is going to be asking an awful lot of a little if the markets test them”.
The DAX has just stormed down through all that Y1 ratio, and even Y2 yesterday hardly caused a second glance.
And just to compound matters the zone has dropped, and by a considerable amount.
The real test will be when, or if, it hits the R ratios and if they provide any support.
Worth knowing that if they do then the nearest corresponding R ratio at the other end is not until 13400, a very cool 900-points away, but it may need a friend, so watch out for London hitting R3 perhaps, or something Stateside”.
Range: 12200 to 12250
Activity: Good
Type: On balance just bullish
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June 26th, 2018 by Richard
SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 26th June 2018
Exactly as it should be, quiet first week of a five-week expiry, then wallop, straight into all that Y ratio.
Yesterday was all about the zones, for the SPX it was their open at 2742.94, which was not only below it but also the third test, the other two being 2743.19 (19th) and 2744.39 (21st), but intraday lows.
Today, it will be all about whether or not it wants to stay below it and in bear territory, which is a big call for this index as it hasn’t been here for quite a while.
All the ratios are firmer, but there is still a stupid amount of Y ratio around, 150-points to be exact, so this could just be the start, so hang on tight.
Please check where the other two are in relation to their zones as at the moment it all seems tied in.
Range: 2655 / (2690) to 2745
Activity Average
Type: On balance bearish
As we said in the NDX last time “this is a big day for the NDX as well, but here it has nothing to do with its zone”, and we were referring to the step-up level at 7275 (sorry we wrote it down as 2775) as “so although still minimal it is the first indication of how this market may react when it encounters its first level of resistance, no matter how small it is”.
So, perhaps worth mentioning, the closing high this expiry, so far at least, is 7280.70.
The two intraday highs were 7309.99 and 7308.26, and 7300 would of course have been our next level.
Anyway, as yesterday was all about zones, here it was the bottom boundary at 6975 that came into play, as the low yesterday was 6976.96.
Admittedly this was their first test, unlike the SPX, but here they evidently really didn’t want to get into bear territory.
Another difference here is that this index is used to a lot of Y ratio around, especially in intermediary expiries but it has definitely been a lot more pronounced of late, so these moves should only be as expected and it would be inadvisable to read too much into what is in essence just a natural and totally predictable market movement.
In fact, we would go as far as to say that despite the excitable newsmongers’ the real issue would be if under these conditions the market didn’t move.
Range: 7025 to (7275) / 7375
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bearish
For the DJX the decision they had to make about their zone was exactly what we said in our last comment “and therein lies the rub, as at 24500 this index will have to decide whether it stays in its zone, or out of it, and into bearish territory”.
Having recovered on Friday to close at 24580 then there was cause for a degree of optimism, but just like the SPX the open on Monday at 24463, down 117-points, blew that away, as it too opened below their zone.
However, the DJX is now in a slightly different boat as their zone has reverted back to the extreme width we saw in the rollover.
The flipside is that this means it is still inside it.
The issue may be a continuation of the extreme volatility.
For the record it is all a bit odd that this level of activity has resulted in such a huge zone, but this is what the numbers say, which just shows that it never ceases to surprise.
Range: 24000 to 25000
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just fractionally bullish
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June 22nd, 2018 by Richard
FTSE and DAX Ratio Table 22nd June 2018
Poor old London and the FTSE as it seems others did indeed have this index’s fate in their hands, although they had their chances, but just failed to take them.
The same day as our last comment (19th June) saw this index hit R2 at 7550, the low being 7548.84, and bounce back up very nicely, to the tune of 55-points.
All the bulls had to do was now get above 7650 and back into the zone, but for whatever reason they lost that fight in the closing hour, closing at 7627.40, having been as high as 7705.20.
Yesterday morning they tried again, the high being 7670.78, but again failed, which meant it was all the way back down to R2.
This, places the FTSE in a very interesting position, as the high yesterday (7670.78) and the low (7548.12), apart from being our trading range, is also a ratio bandwidth test.
So, that generally means a breakout today, and to make matters easier, both 7550 and 7650 are on strike 2, and as we always say “strike 3 and through”.
Range: 7550 to 7650
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bearish
As we said “and, in a nutshell, that is going to be the problem here (very underdeveloped) for this expiry as the ratios, on either side, currently only go as high as R2, which is going to be asking an awful lot of a little if the markets test them”.
The DAX has just stormed down through all that Y1 ratio, and even Y2 yesterday hardly caused a second glance.
And just to compound matters the zone has dropped, and by a considerable amount.
The real test will be when, or if, it hits the R ratios and if they provide any support.
Worth knowing that if they do then the nearest corresponding R ratio at the other end is not until 13400, a very cool 900-points away, but it may need a friend, so watch out for London hitting R3 perhaps, or something Stateside.
Range: 12350 to 12650
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bullish
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June 21st, 2018 by Richard
SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 21st June 2018
At the moment it is all about the zones as both the SPX and DJX realign.
For the SPX this means it has virtually stood still from its close on Friday at 2779.66 to date.
In the meantime, on Monday it tested the upper boundary of its zone (low 2757.12) and on Tuesday the bottom boundary (low 2743.19).
So, to yesterdays’ close at 2767.32, the SPX has lost all of 12.34-points, hardly anything, but has managed to stay just above its zone.
Therefore, rather ironically, it is now the DJX that must make a decision while this index hovers, but impressive activity suggests it still wants a say.
Range: 2755 to 2785
Activity Strong
Type: On balance bearish
This is a big day for the NDX as well, but here it has nothing to do with its zone.
Although, having said that, it is very likely that it will move up to 7075-7125, which is very early on in the expiry but does at least indicate involvement.
As does the fact that they have added almost 50 new strikes, the real issue will be if this generates any increase in activity.
Perhaps worth reminding that although activity is just above average as one can see from so much Y ratio present it is from a very low baseline, so not really that impressive.
The big issue here is that the market closed just above the step-up level we mentioned last time, at 2775, so although still minimal it is the first indication of how this market may react when it encounters its first level of resistance, no matter how small it is.
Range: 7025 to (7275) / 7425
Activity: Good
Type: Neutral
The last few days just goes to show what can happen when the DJX is in such a wide zone.
Considering the SPX has lost just 12.34-points since its close on Friday, for the DJX that is from their close at 25090 to yesterdays they have lost a whopping 433-points.
Or to put it another way, from the upper boundary of their zone to near the bottom one.
And there in lies the rub, as at 24500 this index will have to decide whether it stays in its zone, or out of it, and into bearish territory.
The ramifications are quite serious, in mean potentially 600-points upside, but outside and the next support is not until 23500, which is a bit scary.
Range: 24500 to 25100
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance only just bullish
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June 19th, 2018 by Richard
FTSE and DAX Ratio Table 19th June 2018
Even though we said it would be all about the close in the FTSE on Friday we still didn’t expect it to be as dramatic as it was.
The issue for us was whether or not it was going to close below 7750 and back inside its zone.
However, the problem in the end, literally, was if it could stay in its zone, as the real time close was 7648.71, right on the bottom boundary.
So, it was all down to the auction, again, and that took 14.8-points off, which sealed London’s fate, meaning it would start July in bear territory.
The fact the high on Monday was 7645.47 means strike one already, but it really doesn’t look as if it wants to go down, but other indices may have the deciding vote on that.
Range: 7550 to 7650
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bearish
Despite it being a huge improvement in the ratios for the DAX it is still very underdeveloped.
Friday saw this index close at 13010, which is as close to the centre of its zone as you are likely to get on such a big index.
The only possible saving grace yesterday was the bottom boundary providing support, and with this index opening at 12945, right on it, this was a big ask.
It did manage an initial bounce, to the high of the day, 12982, but it never survived the second test, and with absolute minimum Y1 ratio underneath it was always going to struggle.
And, in a nutshell, that is going to be the problem here for this expiry as the ratios, on either side, currently only go as high as R2, which is going to be asking an awful lot of a little if the markets test them.
Range: 12550 to 12950
Activity: Very strong
Type: Neutral
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June 18th, 2018 by Richard
SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 18th June 2018
The SPX could easily be the deciding factor for this expiry and straight from the very first day as well.
So, don’t forget, this is a five-week expiry, the first week of these can be very slow and ponderous, although with where the market is this may not be an option this time.
It will all boil down to sensitivity, or aggression, because as one can see the market closed right on Y2.
The trouble is that this is backed up by R1 just above it at 2810 and all the while the gravitational pull of their zone will be being felt, especially so in a quiet environment and with little or no momentum.
Range: 2755 to 2780 or 2780 to 2810
Activity Average
Type: On balance bearish
There is hardly any change in the NDX ratios, and the zone is certainly static.
However, it comes across to us as more than this, as it appears to be not so much in the doldrums but rather more like being actively ignored.
The activity is admittedly just above average, but this is not too difficult to achieve as the baseline is so very low, again.
Nevertheless, we do have some R ratio this expiry so at least it is ahead of the previous intermediary expiries we have had.
Therefore, we should mention the “step-up” level here in this index, which above the zone is lurking slightly submerged at 7275.
Range: 7025 to (7275) / 7425
Activity: Good
Type: On balance only just bullish
Firstly, we must congratulate the DJX for getting as low as 25058 for the expiry, which considering their June zones upper boundary was 25100 this meant it finished inside it, which was a stalwart effort really.
Anyway, back to July, and it’s still all about the zone and it has narrowed, and quite considerably so.
However, it is still at a massive 600-points, which is still a record.
The problem is that this is 600-points of zero ratio, so absolutely no naturally occurring futures activity to moderate any movement either way.
Furthermore, the Y1 ratio either side is also very minimal, so even the slightest momentum would probably blow this away.
All in all, there is not enough meaningful ratio here presently to affect, or mitigate, any market moves and this normally results in big swings and/or severe whiplash, especially so when the market figures out there is nothing there.
Range: 24500 to 25100 or 25100 to 25600
Activity: Average
Type: On balance only just bullish
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June 15th, 2018 by Richard
FTSE June to July Ratio Rollover Table 15th June 2018
In the FTSE there have been a lot of changes in the ratios above the zone, but as we have said all along this expiry “will be governed by several massive positions”.
We also said “but our best guess is a return to the first two days of this expiry”, by which we meant circa 7800, so losing almost 20-points in the auction could prove expensive as the close in real time was 7785.18, just a smidgen shy.
Although this is about the FTSE we should at least mention the DAX, which lost a just as impressive 20.44-points in their auction, but as they had overshot their zone in their equally impressive 216-point surge to the line, this might actually work in their favour.
Range: 7650 to 7850
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
So, the question is whether or not it is safe to get back into the water in July?
Sadly, the answer is no, or perhaps not yet, as simply there is no way of determining whether the rather obvious lumpy positions are for this expiry or still a hangover from June’s.
Although, it is perhaps worth pointing out that they are so blatant because not only is this an intermediary but that they are the only ones, whereas in June we suspect there was bit of a clash of the titans going on.
In the meantime, the biggest indication of the underlying currents will be once the expiry is out of the way where this market closes, specifically in or above its zone.
Range: 7750 to 7850
Activity: Good
Type: On balance bearish
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June 14th, 2018 by Richard
NDX June to July Ratio Rollover Table 14th June 2018
As we said in our last comment on the NDX it “was clear skies above”.
At that point this index was at 7166.75 and already boasting a 300-point move, but it was now in Y2 ratio.
This evidently slowed the rate of climb as it stalled around 7150 for that week, only getting fruity again on Tuesday, two days ago.
The zone has moved, inevitable in such a miserly ratio populated expiry as this, as was the market move, and again, we can only report on what’s there, and if that is tantamount to zilch this is the result.
Range: 7175 to ….
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
And a bit of a surprise for July is that there is some R1 ratio already present.
Considering this is only an intermediary as well as being a 5-week expiry then this is actually good going, especially in the context of how poor the last two have been.
However, it does look a bit like insurance considering how far away it is and how far this market has come, but it’s a start nevertheless.
Sadly, the same can’t be said for above the zone where it truly is devoid of any meaningful ratio until Y2 appears.
Range: 7025 to 7500
Activity: Average
Type: Neutral
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