Category: Uncategorized
September 29th, 2017 by Richard
By the end of the day the SPX looked comfortable above Y2 but again in the morning it struggled for at least the first hour or so.
Again once it broke through it came back to 2505 for confirmation which again provided a strong signal, at least for the scalpers.
However it is altogether unconvincing and it really should not be having this much trouble with a Y ratio, but next stop R1.
Range: 2480 to 2530
Activity Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
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Yesterday was probably the quietest day in the NDX so far this expiry as nestled into its zone.
Although technically it was a NZ bandwidth test on Wednesday we didn’t think it would breakout yesterday as it was more by default caused by it getting back into the safety of its zone rather than a result of being in it and testing the boundaries.
Although now the market is very familiar with 5900 and knows about the upper boundary as well having tested it comprehensively on the way down (high this expiry 6012.95) so each level is already way past the strike 3 rule.
Range: 5900 to 5950
Activity: Good
Type: Bearish
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It is neck and neck as we enter the home straight in the DJX with the rank outsider 21900-22100 charging up on the inside but the firm favourite 22300-22500 has seen the danger and has responded.
And sadly this is about as exciting as it gets in this index, however don’t be fooled as the DJX is going to be a major player we suspect over the closing quarter of 2017.
Basically it has been an outright bull, and especially in the first quarter, taking this market into ratio levels it had previously been too scared to even face and all on the back of Trump’s tax plan.
Now this is finite or tangible hopefully this market will return to normal, and you never know it might even get reacquainted with its zone once in a while.
Range: 21900 to 22700
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 29th, 2017 by Richard
It is the last day of September and so the end of Q3 but the FTSE has been so boring over the last few days we suspect this will have minimal impact, but one should be aware.
At least we have some activity back and it is all in one direction but the only ratio to change is DR which slips out a touch.
Really there is very little we can add as until this index decides to take on R2 again at 7250 or have a go at the bottom boundary it is just wasting time.
Of course that means the market just reeling in the time value so at least someone gets something, rather like last expiry spending all that time in its NZ.
Range: 7250 to 7350
Activity: Poor
Type: Bullish
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The DAX is making the same heavy going with Y2 that the SPX is with theirs.
After the first couple of hours it managed to claw its way up to it and then flat lined for the rest of the day, suffice it to say the high was 12708 and the real time close was 12699.
Hardly a ringing endorsement of recent fundamental events, but also, and again just like the SPX, any knock backs have not shaken out any sellers.
Just over 1% to the first R ratio and don’t forget it doesn’t actually go much higher than that so if it really wanted to it could easily forge ahead, as long as it just doesn’t look down.
Range: 12550 to 12850
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 28th, 2017 by Richard
We did think here we go again in the SPX as they powered to a couple of points past Y2 and then gave in, crumbling all the way back to 2495.91.
It then settled around the big figure and we thought that was it for the day but it came alive in the last hour or so and tried again but this time held its ground.
Basically it’s a lot of effort for just Y2 so it shows how hard it has to work, but at the same time any knock back is not shaking out sellers.
So no fear and scarce buyers and judging by today’s activity it will very probably be a rinse and repeat.
Range: 2480 to 2530
Activity Very poor
Type: On balance bullish
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Well they wanted to go again and also knew what was required in the NDX as the open was 5912.96 up 31.62 points but far more importantly it was above the bottom boundary.
In fact the low was 5900.35 and as we have seen over the last three trading days this test and it holding has been and was a strong signal.
But the fun did not stop there as the high was 5957.75 which was a solid test of the upper boundary, and this of course makes yesterday a NZ bandwidth test.
Again, thank goodness for the NDX as it’s the only one playing the game at the moment, even today being the one with decent activity.
Ordinarily we would say after a bandwidth test to expect a breakout but this time we suspect just getting back to its zone might have been the aim all along.
Interestingly both Y2’s have come in, and to levels that should be recognisable.
Range: 5900 to 5950
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance only just bearish
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No surprise with any change in the DJX ratios, but here it is all about the possible move in its NZ rather than moving ratios.
And it is bit of a dark horse that has crept up on the outside unnoticed and today 21900-22100 is looking the most likely candidate.
This would still be below the current market but hopefully it will act more like a catalyst rather than the target it should be, which of course this index has ignored all year so far.
However now we have got details of this much awaited tax bonanza this index may now return to normality.
Range: 21900 to 22700
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 28th, 2017 by Richard
If we had to describe the FTSE in a word it would take no time to choose “boring”.
We fully understand and appreciate why it doesn’t want to go near 7250 again but what we can’t fathom is why it is so reluctant to even approach 7350.
Furthermore with this total lack of motivation or achievement comes the level of activity that we see today, and just to rub salt into the wounds the Oct expiry is historically one of the exciting ones.
In a rough brushstroke activity and momentum/aggression should build throughout the year ending in the Dec crescendo.
Range: 7250 to 7350
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
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At last now we are getting somewhere in the DAX, although that was rather lame to say the least.
The high yesterday was 12685 which was a test of Y2 and the market really didn’t look comfortable coming up against it having languished just below for most of the day up to then.
We are talking only Y2, so it is still a minimal ratio level, but it is also the first increment in ratio however minor it has encountered so far this expiry as it has spent the expiry up to now just above its zone, and as such this is the first insight we have had as to the sensitivity of this market this expiry.
Range: 12550 to 12850
Activity: Good
Type: Neutral
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 27th, 2017 by Richard
SPX , NDX and DJX Ratio Table 27th September 2017
This time last week the SPX was in a tussle with Y2 at 2505 and in fact the first four days the high was above it and twice this resulted in a close above.
We did point out that we were talking about it battling it out with the minimal Y2 but in truth we actually miss even that minor confrontation these days.
It is really saying something when this index doesn’t even want to play around in a 25 point Y1 ratio bandwidth contenting itself with a small daily range.
However it is perhaps worth pointing out that although it doesn’t want to push against Y2 the normal reaction under these circumstances would be a reversion to its zone, and it hasn’t done that so that means not a bear in sight.
Range: 2480 to 2530
Activity Poor
Type: On balance only just bearish
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Yesterday was not bullish for the NDX despite it ending up 14 points.
Basically it opened up strongly, but still shy of the bottom boundary of its NZ, and then went on to try to get back over it with the high being 5908.47.
The fact it failed is bearish and today the ratios are weaker below the zone and better above it which is also bearish and, needless to say, is the fact it remains in bearish territory (below the zone).
It is currently the only one below its zone and the fact it tried shows the bulls are there and willing to give it a go, just not quite strong enough although they do now know what is required if they want to go again.
Range: 5650 / (5775) to 5900
Activity: Average
Type: On balance bullish
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It seems all that activity in the DJX hasn’t sparked anything and today it collapses back to our newly created level.
The main point of interest is that 22300-22500 is again back on the cards as the next NZ, and the bottom boundary could still be 22200, but if it’s not then should it change at these levels that would put the current market below it, and wouldn’t that be a novelty.
Range: 21900 to 22700
Activity: Only just registered
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 27th, 2017 by Richard
We certainly have to give the FTSE full marks for trying as it opened very weak and it was almost all they could do to stem the tide.
It clawed its way back to breakeven or even a small positive and we thought they might make it to their target of 7350 if the Street played along, which sadly it didn’t.
Putting on 9.08 points in the auction added bit of gloss to an otherwise torrid close but we feel it will eventually have to test one or the other but it knows what’s there at 7250 (twice over) so we fully understand its reluctance to go there again.
Range: 7250 to 7350
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
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Again the DAX has done nothing really although in one of those neat coincidences here they also added 9 points in the auction otherwise it really would have been no change.
Which brings us to another coincidence as this happened last Monday and Tuesday where the real time close was the same, 12564, as it has been this week, but at 12595.
Below the zone we see Y2 and R1 come in which is good as every time it narrows the Y ratio bandwidth, but it is still a rather massive 700 points, and we guess with this market going nowhere what’s the rush?
Range: 12550 to 12850
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance decently bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 26th, 2017 by Richard
It was a bit better in the SPX with a 14 point range resulting in a small loss, but really it is very boring.
The first week was the “extra” one so it had an excuse this week does not and in truth it should be more like the NDX.
Again activity seems to be the key and today’s does not reveal any change in the current circumstances so if you are looking for action anywhere else would be better.
Range: 2480 to 2530
Activity Very poor
Type: Neutral
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Thank goodness for the NDX as at least they are showing how it should be done in minimal Y ratio.
Although there was no clue from the Friday as it traded just over 10 points inside both boundaries of its NZ.
The first clue we got was the open yesterday which was not only one of the most aggressive we have seen recently but at 5904.06 was an immediate test of their bottom boundary.
This failed but as is often the case the market did rally back up to the bottom boundary and it was this second failure that sealed their fate.
Again with so much Y1 ratio about as we always say it is like an ice rick and a little push can go a long way, and remember even the step-up level is not until 5775.
Range: 5675 / (5775) to 5900
Activity: Average
Type: Bearish
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We mentioned yesterday that the DJX was still up slightly on the week, well on Monday 18th September, the start of this expiry, this index opened at 22297, so it was just its timing was slightly off.
However we suspect it will not sit still for much longer as activity seems to be the key here as well, and here it has exploded.
Hopefully this will spark some interest and we will get back to a market that actually moves, and it’s not as if it is hemmed in by ratio.
Range: 21900 to 22700
Activity: Outstanding
Type: Bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 26th, 2017 by Richard
FTSE and DAX Ratio Table 26th September 017
The FTSE didn’t test the lower boundary of its NZ although 7350 still remains the next target having bounced off 7250 at least twice.
However being realistic circumstances translated from other markets will affect London so this will only happen if it gets free rein to do so.
A very decent level of activity has resulted in further changes in the ratios below the zone, which are evidently weaker and this has left 7250 now as the standout R2 level.
We would mention how pivotal this level was last week and has already provided support twice so another test would be strike 3.
Range: 7250 to 7350
Activity: Good
Type: On balance bullish
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We are holding our hand up as we really thought the DAX would react by more than 2 points.
Basically activity was decent throughout the build-up and yet there was still an ocean of Y ratio so the bases were loaded and for us it just needed a spark.
However this is still the case today so although any reaction will not now be immediate the argument from yesterday is still valid.
The R ratios below the zone have all come in significantly whereas above Y2 slips out a bit, both bullish, but the real story remains the 800 points of Y ratio still present.
Range: 12550 to 12850
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 25th, 2017 by Richard
At least it is not a continuation of Friday in the SPX, where we saw a lot of money coming off the table, but it is also nothing special.
Activity is the key at the moment and from what we are seeing there is a lot of fence-sitting going on.
However despite the meager levels of activity we have seen a few ratios move fractionally, and at best we can say is that it is better than nothing.
This index opened last Monday at 2502.51 and closed on Friday at 2502.22 and all the while it was in 50 point Y ratio bandwidth so it must be bad if it doesn’t want to move when there is nothing to stop it.
Range: 2480 to 2530
Activity Poor
Type: Neutral
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If you are going to go nowhere then the NDX has got it spot on, as being in its zone is where it should be.
In fact it was happy enough in its zone that it didn’t even test the edges only getting as high as 5937 and as low as 5911, in both instances just over 10 points away.
Activity here is also ticking over and just like the other two it is evenly biased and with scant movement there is little to add.
Range: 5900 to 5950
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
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At least the DJX managed a little movement on the week managing a rise of 52 points, which is not much but at least it moved.
However also like the SPX it is in the middle of a huge Y ratio bandwidth so really there should be an awful lot more movement.
After the hiccup in activity on Thursday it continues to tick over but no change in any of the ratios.
However this stagnation at this level maintains the possibility of the zone moving here, and even if it is by default we would welcome it, as it would hopefully bringing an end this impasse.
Range: 21900 to 22700
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
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Posted in Uncategorized
September 25th, 2017 by Richard
Well that’s the first “extra” week out of the way for the FTSE and although the market has been rather boring the derivatives have certainly not been.
To extricate itself from deep inside R3, albeit an inherited position has been an achievement in itself and it did not go unnoticed that the low on Friday was 7242.23 which just went to prove 7250 did indeed “punch above its weight”.
This means the next stop should be 7350 and a knock on the door of its NZ.
Please don’t forget last expiry when this index spent virtually the entire time inside its zone apart from the allowable, and expected, grey area.
Range: 7150 to 7350
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance not bearish
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Today is just the sort of scenario in the DAX where we always say those that purport to regulate or stabilise markets should be well prepared for any eventuality as it should be no surprise that there is no meaningful ratio between 11950 and 12850, and that there hasn’t been for some time.
We are not saying the market will but rather it could and so if it does it will just reveal that yet again they have no comprehension of what market dynamics are in this century if they express even the slightest hint of surprise.
We do not normally drill down to this level in activity but under the circumstance we feel we should mention one very large OTM call trade has resulted in an overall positive reading, which does tend to mask the underlying sentiment which without this would be bearish again today.
Range: 12550 to 12850
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance only just bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
