Category: Uncategorized
November 16th, 2017 by Richard
FTSE Nov to Dec Rollover 16th Nov 2017
It is very much a chicken and egg situation in the FTSE as it had one shot at getting back into its zone for the rollover yesterday and that was a strong open.
Circumstances were such that this wasn’t really going to happen, and to be fair the close on Tuesday left the market an awful lot to do, so what came first the miss or the activity, as it’s all change in the ratios today?
Although yesterday 7350 was R1, as well as being the bottom of our trading range, so it was nice to see the low of 7357.06.
Today it is Y2 but more importantly Y1 appears meaning the next NZ should be 7350-7450, and in fact only missed out today by the barest possible minimum, so we are going to keep our trading range the same for this very reason.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance only just bearish
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To compound November’s problems, it looks like here in December they won the rollover battle by a knockout.
Of course, it is now looking less and less likely that the NZ is going to move here.
In fact, no change at all in the ratios here and now we enter the grey area, but we suspect, with all the changes going on above and with no axe to grind here it may be a calm, and dare we say, controlled one centred around 7400.
Range: 7300 to 7400
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 16th, 2017 by Richard
DAX Nov to Dec Rollover 16th Nov 2017
The DAX having closed on Tuesday just 13-points below the bottom boundary of its zone we thought it would make it yesterday.
Sadly, especially when it is a specific point in time, anything can throw the proverbial spanner into the works, and we feel that is exactly what happened here.
Ironically it has ended up almost bang on the money where the NZ used to, or was for the first 3 weeks of this expiry having just moved this Monday.
However, and like London, the low yesterday was 12847, which was Y2 (and still is) and also the bottom of our trading range.
Range: 12850 to 13050
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance only just bearish
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The last few days haven’t really meant anything in December, although the NZ here being where it is certainly would not have helped.
However, now we are in the grey area this expiry starts having more of an influence and so the continuing lack of ratio, and probably more importantly, the lack of development, should start to focus one’s attention.
The astute may have noticed that 12850 was also the bottom of our trading range here (low 12847) this being the upper boundary of the NZ in this expiry.
Range: 12850 to 13250
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 15th, 2017 by Richard
DJX Nov to Dec Rollover 15th Nov 2017
That was very impressive from the DJX clawing its way back to manage to finish inside its NZ, albeit only just.
But what is remarkable is the fact we are even mentioning it as this index has been so divorced from its zone for the past 10 months these are now forces that are unfamiliar with this index.
The amazing irony is that with Y2 moving up to 23300 this index may now actually get support from the ratios, and how truly bizarre would that be.
We have to say that after yesterday’s fightback to make it 6 trading days in a row closing in its zone, and more importantly at this very point in time, it looks a lot like the return of the prodigal.
Range: 23300 to 23400 or 23400 to 23600
Activity: Good
Type: Bearish
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Now if the DJX has returned to rationality the ramifications for December are serious.
Rather than just battering away at the highest ratio it could find above its NZ then now this zone will have influence.
If it does then it would be well worth noting that it is at 22900-23100.
Furthermore, there is a rather nasty R3 just above this market while all the Y ratio is currently below the zone.
Range: 23100 to 23600
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 15th, 2017 by Richard
SPX Nov to Dec Rollover 15th Nov 2017
It was certainly lining up for a perfect rollover having closed inside its zone.
So, it looks like rather than a walk in the park today is going to be a rumble in the jungle just to keep it anywhere near its NZ.
It is a shame as last expiry it was the DJX, although that was hardly unexpected or unusual for this year, but this time with that index seemingly behaving itself for once, right at the crucial moment a “coup” gets in the way.
Although considering how easily it could have gone rampant this expiry with the ratio being so bald on top, to actually get back to its NZ for this exact point in time is worth appreciating.
Range: 2570 to 2580
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
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No move in December’s NZ but it is still very much on the cards.
For the astute the situation here is very similar to that in the FTSE, however there is one massive difference, in that here it, so far at least, is giving every indication that the NZ here will move up to match November’s.
To highlight this, we have seen the appearance of Y2 now above Y1, which pushes R1 out to 2590, but the other ratios remain the same.
The rollover is a big day and if the market does take fright then this could naturally upset the zones move here, so still a long way to go yet.
Range: 2555 to 2590
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 15th, 2017 by Richard
FTSE Nov to Dec Rollover 15th Nov 2017
It was a surprisingly quiet day in the FTSE with it only managing a 40-point daily trading range.
The fact the low was 7396.92 means it was a long way from a test of R1 and the high of 7436.57 was also not close enough to class as a test of the bottom boundary.
However, as we hinted at yesterday, this index seems caught between the bottom boundary in November, 7450, and the upper boundary in December, 7400.
So, between a rock and a hard place which could ultimately achieve nothing, although it is within spitting distance.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Very poor
Type: On balance not bearish
And just to highlight what we have said above we get a very small change in December but nevertheless a very significant one.
It is by no means definitive but the loss of Y1 above the zone raises the uncomfortable situation that here the NZ may not move at all, cementing the significance of 7400.
There are still a couple of days to go and November may yet pull rank today, and if so and we get the market back above 7450 then it may well change the situation here again, but it is worth noting that this is not now a given.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Activity: Very poor
Type: On balance only just not bullish
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It is nice to see the DAX being a bit more energetic and this is exactly what we would expect to see at this point in the expiry.
The trouble is maintaining that level of excitement brought about by the natural increase in equity activity as a result of the rollover but at the same time keeping it all controlled.
Again, it came close, if it actually didn’t, test the upper boundary with the high of 13139 before bottoming at 13000.
The fact the close is just 17-points away from the bottom boundary (on a 13k index mind) means it is perfectly poised for today.
Range: 12850 to 13050 or 13050 to 13150
Activity: Very good
Type: Bullish
Well the December NZ has started to move but it remains in a sea of Y1 ratio and is still a long way away so is unlikely to influence anything at the moment.
What is probably more of an influence currently is Y2 residing at 13050.
However, the issue here remains the very lop-sided nature of the ratios and the continuing amount of Y ratio.
Range: 12850 to 13250
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance only just not bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 14th, 2017 by Richard
Monday in the SPX was the opposite of Friday as yesterday it opened at 2576.53 down 5.77-points, but more importantly in the middle of its zone.
The opposite part is that it spent almost all but the first hour just above its zone.
With no shenanigans from the DJX, so far, at least, this rollover, it looks perfectly placed with just a day to go now.
The collapse in activity suggests that it is game over as well.
However, the good news is that if we get a proper, or compliant, rollover then this gives the green light to the grey area, or Thursday and Friday, to go wild.
Range: 2570 to 2580 or 2580 to 2605
Activity: Poor
Type: On balance bearish
In the December SPX at the moment it is all about if or when will the NZ move.
The lack of activity here won’t help either but from tomorrow we would expect that to change.
In the meantime, until it does it just stunts development in what is shaping up to be very similar to the current expiry, just with bigger numbers.
Although the ratio distribution may be similar but the market reaction needs not be.
Range: 2555 to 2580 or 2580 to 2605
Activity: Very poor
Type: On balance bearish
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To be honest this could be said about all three not just the NDX but being anywhere near its NZ with just a day to go to the rollover is a very good effort.
As we have seen there has been so little ratio above the zone and what there was has been getting depleted throughout so it had every opportunity to cut loose.
Not that it didn’t as it is still up about 200-points this expiry, but more to the point it has had its rise and is looking to comply with the rollover, and that is neat.
Range: 6275 to 6400
Activity: Good
Type: On balance bearish
No change in any of the NDX December ratios which will not be a concern until after today.
The main issue is the NZ down at 5975-6025 which is a very long way below the market.
However, there is still plenty of Y1 ratio present that it can move, which is something we can’t say for the DJX for example.
Still early days but it is something to keep a wary eye on.
Range: 6250 to 6475
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
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For so little activity it has had a huge impact in the DJX as one can see from the above table.
However, we think it is not just activity but the addition of a huge number of strikes, which begs the question why leave this so late?
Anyway, huge shifts in Y2 below the zone and R1 above it but yesterday was all about this index holding on to its zone.
And quite frankly this is as serious a rollover and expiry as we have had this year as if it holds onto its zone for the rollover tomorrow it is a huge sign that rationality has returned.
Range: 21700 to 23400 or 23400 to 23600
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
There have been a lot of adjustments in December as well but at least here it is at the start rather than the end.
Nevertheless, it has mixed it up a lot but the main aspect hasn’t changed and that is the NZ remains at 22900-23100.
Ordinarily this would not be an issue due to the bubble this index has been in all year, but if it starts acting rationally again then being in R1 is going to be a tough start for Dec.
Range: 23100 to 23600
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 14th, 2017 by Richard
It is turning into quite a tussle in the FTSE as we thought they had managed to set it up for Wednesday with such a strong opening.
Again, the open being the previous close is misleading as from our viewpoint the market opened easily above 7450 and hence back in its zone.
And despite getting as high as 7469.30 it was proving to be a struggle, which means the market could be in for an even bigger fight today, as the clock counts down.
No meaningful changes in the ratios and activity was low which will not help.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
The real problem for the FTSE is that Dec NZ hasn’t moved and the longer the zone stays down here it will affect November.
In fact, none of the ratios have moved so if it comes to a battle of wills between an intermediary expiry and a triple then the triple normally wins, but when that triple is the mighty Dec then it’s not really a contest.
So as things stand the market is caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place, which explains the two opposing forces we saw at work yesterday at least.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bullish
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It probably didn’t help the DAX when it opened up 23-points as that was at 13150 which was right on the upper boundary.
The fact it dropped 167-points, or just over 200-points from the high, shows the benefit/problem of so little ratio.
However, it is very good news that it recovered to finish the day still inside its zone and that was despite the auction costing it 15.16-points.
No change in the NZ or the ratios and just a day to go which is always the hardest part as in so near and yet still so far.
Range: 13050 to 13150
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
December is cutting it fine if it wants its NZ to start moving, and we feel that it will but it does need to just get on with it.
The issue may well be that it will more than likely move to somewhere in the Y1 ratio bandwidth, however Y2 starts at 13050 so the chances are that when it does move up it will still be below the current market.
However, the real issue is the lack of any ratio below the current zone as this is similar to walking along the edge of a precipice.
Range: 12650 to 13250
Activity: Moderate
Type: Neutral
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 13th, 2017 by Richard
The SPX on Friday actually spent most of the day inside its NZ only breaking back above 2580 in the final hour or so.
This is remarkably reminiscent of the last expiry where it toyed with its zone but spent most of the rollover week just above it.
Although this in itself was quite a victory as don’t forget the DJX had its own agenda as it added about 450-points in this week alone, which makes it all the more important to see if it is once again being rational.
Back here in the SPX being just above its zone with Wednesday looming is as near the perfect set-up that one can hope for, but the explosion in activity suggests it’s not cut and dried yet.
Range: 2570 to 2580 or 2580 to 2605
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance bearish
In December the NZ hasn’t changed so it is still down there at 2545-2555 which may be problematic.
However, Y1 is at 2575 which suggests it may move up here to dovetail with Nov’s but with so much activity here it might be wise not to take anything for granted.
There is still a surprising amount of Y ratio present and where the market is it is plain to see how important 2580 and 2605 are in both expiries.
Range: 2555 to 2580 or 2580 to 2605
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bearish
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The NDX has actually had a very good expiry so far therefore on Friday getting as low as 6284.22, or less than 10-points from its upper boundary was tremendous.
A combination of a rising zone and a falling market have left this index sitting nicely just north of their NZ at the start of the rollover.
As we said in the SPX this is sometimes as good as you can get at this stage, and so now just the next two days are crucial.
However, just like the SPX activity here suggests it is not cut and dried here either, but the big difference here is that one they are no stranger to this level of activity and secondly it is not all one-way.
Range: 6275 to 6375
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance bearish
Sadly, NDX December is looking very similar to the November expiry, basically pretty bald on top.
Of course, there is still a very long way to go and it will change but the NZ being 300-points due south is a serious concern.
However, at least this is in keeping with the other two.
Range: 6250 to 6475
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
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This is an impossible call as it has been in its own bubble for so long who can know for sure when rationality will return here.
We saw a few hints last expiry that gave us the first head’s-up, but then normal service was restored in the rollover week.
And again, this expiry a few more hints, perhaps stronger ones as this is the first time this index has seen the inside of its zone for a very long time.
In fact, the DJX has closed inside its zone for the last 4 days, astonishingly.
How it may react when or if it gets into bearish territory is going to be a revelation for sure.
Range: 21700 to 23400 or 23400 to 23600
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
The first look at December DJX is quite perplexing as it appears to have been left behind for quite some time.
The NZ being 22900-23100 is the most obvious difference, but here it does not give any indication at all that it might change.
Also, the number of strike where the market is currently being very few, this again looks like it has been neglected.
With the R ratios so close above and so far away beneath this looks very bearish, but again it will be a question of whether or not this index resumes rational behaviour.
Range: 23100 to 23500
Activity: Did not register
Type: N/A
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 13th, 2017 by Richard
The FTSE is certainly coming to life and just in time for the rollover.
On Friday we did think the bottom boundary would put up more of a fight but the market just powered down through it with the biggest bar of the day by a long shot.
Of course, it is no stranger here so it knew what to expect but it does at least make the target for Wednesday a bit more of a challenge.
The ratios are easier below the zone but 7350 is still R1 but not by very much.
Range: 7350 to 7450
Activity: Average
Type: On balance not bearish
The first look at the Dec expiry immediately throws up an issue which is the NZ being at 7300-7400.
Upon closer inspection the Y1 ratio is a good indication that it is likely to move up and should dovetail with November, however until it does or even if it does then this will remain a big problem.
The second most obvious aspect is how much more ratio there is above than below which again is not bullish.
However, it does highlight just how massive this expiry really is.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Activity: Poor
Type: Bearish
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And at last the NZ has moved up in the DAX and rather neatly has met the market coming the other way.
It has had a rather torrid week of it but considering how much minimal ratio there is still around we are actually surprised by its calmness.
The real question is going to be whether this will be it until Wednesday or will the zone continue to move?
There is so little ratio then this is very probable which also means this market could also go a long way either way, so it will be quite astonishing if it does all stay like this.
Range: 13050 to 13150
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bearish
The DAX December expiry does not make for good viewing if you are a bull that is.
Strikingly the NZ is all the way down at 12550-12650 but with so much Y ratio about we very much doubt it will stay there for much longer.
However, the second most striking aspect is the lack of ratio below the zone made all the more apparent by the abundance of it above the zone.
Still early days but this looks very bearish.
Range: 12650 to 13250
Activity: Average
Type: On balance just bearish
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Posted in Uncategorized
November 10th, 2017 by Richard
SPX , NDX and DJX Ratio Tables 10th Nov 2017
Wrong choice for the SPX as if you do decide you have to back it up and they didn’t do that here yesterday.
Although to be fair to them had they done so they would most certainly have been swimming against the tide.
This just goes to prove what we have been saying that for all the intentions here the decision may well not be theirs to make, as yesterday perfectly encapsulated.
Given free rein then the ratios continue to build below the zone, and although unchanged above it they are weaker, so all good.
As is the fact they have been back to and below their new NZ and yet still finished above it.
Range: 2580 to 2605
Activity Good
Type: On balance bearish
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That may well have caused the defibrillators to come out yesterday in the NDX.
Opening down 50.52-points may well have come as a shock but what is the most revealing is the reaction to it.
And don’t forget this index was down almost 100-points, and in yet another of those coincidences we so love, exactly to the middle of the new NZ.
So, to finish down just 30 is a victory in itself but for activity to be similar again today is ballsy to say the least.
Range: 6275 to 6400
Activity: Good
Type: On balance only just bearish
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It has been such a long time since the DJX has been acting rationally we are justified in treating yesterday with suspicion.
However, there is no denying that it acted in a very similar manner to the SPX, the only difference being that here they did start inside their NZ.
Shock alert, but by getting as low as 23310 the DJX has now been below its zone.
Almost a year to the day and as much as we love coincidence there is another anniversary about now, hmmm.
At least bit has stimulated activity so the rollover is looking exciting.
Range: 23400 to 23600
Activity: Good
Type: On balance just fractionally bullish
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Posted in Uncategorized
