As defining days go in the SPX it was a bit half-hearted but by ending up above Y2 it made its choice in the end.
And it was definitely this markets choice as it was not given any help from elsewhere.
However, let’s not lose sight of the fact we are talking just Y2 and with the rollover looming that should really not be hard at all.
It does throw up the interesting possibility that being poised now just 15-points above its NZ upper boundary it could just take baby-steps from now until Wednesday.
We suspect given the choice it would but we also suspect this is not going to be one that they will be allowed to make.
Range: 2555 to 2605
In the NDX this one-way bet appears to be continuing, at least judging by the level and type of activity.
There is also a third measure which is the ratios themselves, and indeed these are again stronger below the zone and weaker above it.
As we know this index has traded in the “uncomfortable” Y2 ratio bandwidth so Y1 should not hold any fears so it, just like the DJX, has a huge Y1 ratio bandwidth stretching from 6100 up to 6400.
The main difference is that (now) all the activity seems concentrated in this index.
Range: 6200 to 6400
Activity: Very strong
The big question here in the DJX is whether or not the high of 23575 was a test of the upper boundary or not?
It is right on the outer limit for us so we are going to say no it wasn’t.
The real issue here is that this index carries the greatest risk to the SPX’s equanimity.
Regardless of the zone here it is the Y1 ratio bandwidth that is the concern as with even the slightest inclination it could erupt to 24000 or implode down to 21800, so we suspect the decision as to what sort of rollover we can expect will be made here.
Range: 23400 to 23600