Will the rollover and expiry get the SPX moving?

Rollercoaster SPX, but going nowhere really.


Nb. Our comment from the 03/02/21


We have some good news and some bad news for you, well, actually, it’s the same news, just that it depends on your interpretation of it.

As we said last week, please see above, this is exactly what we were expecting.

Although, it has been particularly impressive the way the market has mixed up one-way down or up days, with whipsaw days.

The net result of this, is activity has fallen off a cliff.

But, believe it or not, this is actually all rather lame, especially so for a triple.

By which we mean that this index has found support twice at its zone, the first on Tues 23rd Feb with the intraday low coincided with the top boundary at 3805.59, and secondly last Friday, when it dipped briefly below its zone.

It has yet to test R1 at the other end of the Y ratio bandwidth above the zone.

And this is the reason why it is so “lame”, because it has only bounced around in the Y ratio bandwidth above the zone.

It is not the markets’ fault that this is so wide, and as dramatic as the 2% to 3% daily moves we have been getting are, this is nothing had the market utilised the full Y ratio bandwidth.

As food for thought, that would mean seeing it down to circa 3635, which would be fun, or not, again depending on your interpretation.

Talking of interpretation, this is where we get to the good/bad news bit, as precious little has changed, ratio wise, after the first week.

The overall the Y ratio bandwidth has shrunk by 40-points admittedly, but nevertheless still remains a jaw-dropping 320-points wide.

On the flip side, it would be very interesting to see this market get aggressive, as it really won’t realise that the only ratio ahead is just R1 and R2.

Bizarre not to see any B ratios, but then again, it’s bizarre to see Y ratio in a triple.

In a nutshell, more of the same, but probably getting worse as the expiry continues.


Range:            3805  to  3955           

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Bullish


Nb. Our comment for 03/10/21


We did update the above ratio table on the 5th March, but just on Twitter.

The reason we say that is because it reflected the fact that Y2 had moved up to 3905, which it actually did on the 4th, but this is the first public record.

Which means yesterday’s intraday high of 3903.76 was the third test of this level, although only the first when it was officially Y2 in our table.

This doesn’t really help much, as it just highlights exactly how “lame” this market really is.

Really, if it can’t even get past a lowly Y ratio, and that’s in a biggie, this just makes matters worse.

Also, we have seen this market duck below its zone, getting as low as 3723.34, but alas, no test of the corresponding Y2 level below the zone.

Close, but no prize this time, and the fact it only camped out there overnight, meant the bulls, timid as they are, were at least willing to put up bit of a fight down there at least.

At least the volatility has been there, if not any real movement.

After the first day of this expiry, back on the 22nd February, this index closed at 3876.50, so it has been an exciting ride, a veritable rollercoaster, but at the end of the day going nowhere.

The respective Y ratio bandwidths remain as ridiculously wide as ever, so we can’t envisage this changing any time soon either.

Although, if anything is going to snap this market out of its current lameness, then the rollover and expiry next week will be the events to do it.

Either that, or London will eventually get too sore a head after banging it for so long and for so hard against very high levels of ratio and capitulate, which just goes to show what a market with a bit of emotion can actually do in these triples.  


Range:            3805  to  (3905) 3955           

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              On balance not bearish


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March 10th, 2021 by