Nb. Our comment from the 04/21/21
Well, it appears as if the 5-week May expiry has simply picked up where the April one left off.
By which we mean, the capitulation by the ratios above the zone in April, have seemingly seamlessly transferred across to this the new expiry.
There is absolutely no reason for this, other than the players just aren’t playing.
Otherwise, it would be just the same as every other move to a new near-month.
But it is what it is, and just one glance at the above table will tell you that there is a dearth of ratio above the zone, but plentiful amounts below it.
Furthermore, even at this early stage, we are seeing the ratios climb below the zone, and retreat above it.
Also, we can see the zone easily move up to 4095-4105.
So, all in all, it’s a bullish picture, but a picture we can’t help but feel somewhat uneasy about.
We have tried to rationalise this feeling, and the conclusion we have come to, is that it is because all these new all-time-highs are being made without any necessity to absorb the futures that would be forced out by the dynamic delta created by interacting with the R ratios, or even higher than that normally.
Therefore, it’s just weird that we are in a rampant bull market that essentially doesn’t have any bulls in it.
Otherwise, it is the same old mantra, that this is certainly not a risk-free market, as the Y1 ratio bandwidth is 285-points (7%), and the overall Y ratio bandwidth is 485-points (11.7%), so those long best hope that someone, or something, does not go “boo”.
Range: 4005 to 4180 / 4280
Type: On balance bearish
Nb. Our comment for 04/28/21
We are now well into the second week of this five-week expiry, so the slow away excuse is really no longer valid.
Admittedly, there has been quite a significant amount of upward movement in the ratios below the zone, as there has been in those above it.
Especially if you’re a bull.
But the Y1 ratio bandwidth just decreasing from 285 to 260-points, and the overall Y ratio bandwidth staying the same at 485-points, is really the main story.
The other aspect that may not be so apparent at first glance, is that below the zone R2 doesn’t appear until 3695, and interestingly is the only ratio level not to change, and R3 until 3495.
These are levels that are so far below the current market, that if it went down to test them, then they are not nearly big enough to compete, stem, or even reverse a fall of that magnitude.
However, at least below the zone they have these ratios, as above they are just not there at all.
It is a brave new world, and as such we have no precedent of this, but don’t get fooled into thinking that everything is all right with this world.
Because the simple truth is, that little or no ratio equals little or no business.
Which helps explain its sensitivity (nb. The opposite is also true) but means, that there are literally no support or resistance levels in this market at all.
It is always great when its upwards, but people don’t half squeal when it’s not.
Until a CEO or CFO decides that they don’t want to be part of an index designed for traders, with scant regard for actual fundamentals or a proper orderly market, then this is what you are going to get.
Currently, the sky’s the limit, and looking the other way, well, 10-15% would be a get out of jail scenario.
Range: 4005 to 4205
Activity: Very poor
Type: On balance only just bearish