Nb. Our comment from the 12/23/20
Although we did not publish back on the 18th, and anyway, it was still the December expiry, we did calculate the ratios, and have therefore included them in the above table so you can discern the evolution from then to today.
And, just like the FTSE, it is a shame that we didn’t publish this month’s before it became the front month on Monday, as that was the day it all happened.
The intraday low came at the end of a 66.42-point drop to 3636.48, and we are not too worried about a bit of overshoot under the circumstance, so this was most definitely a test of the bottom boundary of its zone.
And we are more than happy to call the intraday high that day of 3702.90 a test of Y2.
A bandwidth test on the first day is going some, and because of this we are not too sure it even knew that it was.
Despite this exciting start there are still some points to note.
Firstly, at least we have some strength and movement in the ratios below the zone.
Secondly, we would expect Jan’s zone to join where Dec ended, 3695-3705.
Thirdly, a little bit of strength in the ratios above the zone, despite the two points below, so significantly no weakening, or at least as yet.
Fourthly, the Y ratio bandwidth is a colossal 460-points wide.
Fifthly, at the moment the market is in bullish territory (above its zone) but a lot may well rest on where it is when the zone does move.
Sixthly, the year-end performance bonus season is not yet over.
Finally, it is thin out there, typical for a Jan expiry, but with all that Y ratio around that’s a 12.5% range of minimal ratio, so, literally, anything could/can happen.
Range: 3655 to 3705 (3805)
Type: On balance only just bearish
Nb. Our comment for 12/30/20
We hope you all had a happy and safe holiday.
Looks like the SPX did, and is right on course for a very good year-end performance based bumper bonus.
However, a word of caution, that although we see the recent rally as “performance enhancing” it hasn’t really had any great hurdle to overcome in achieving such, so don’t expect an adverse reaction immediately the clock ticks past midnight.
By which we mean, it hasn’t been tangling with the R ratios.
Which is a good thing, as all last week it was about Y2 at 3705, and those that were aware of this level will know how much of a nuisance it was on a daily basis.
Most days it essentially caused the market to flatline about it.
So, for the bulls, it’s probably a good thing it has eventually shifted.
The very interesting aspect is that yesterday this market closed just below it, so perhaps this fight is not yet over.
However, now it is in retreat, it would be remiss of us not to mention the next step-up levels, being 3745 and 3755.
A couple of other housekeeping points; Firstly, the zone hasn’t shifted, but it is still very likely to move to 3695-3705 sooner rather than later.
Secondly, when it does, as things stand, it will still be below the market, so this means the market would remain in bullish territory.
Thirdly, the R ratios below the zone have at last started to creep north.
This has narrowed the Y ratio bandwidth to “just” 410-points, but worth noting, that this market is now a lot closer to the top end of this range than when we last commented.
Final point, and worth noting, that when we come back in ’21 this expiry will only have two more weeks to run, or a week, then it’s into the rollover and expiry. Fun, fun, fun.
Range: 3655 to 3730 (3805)