Nb. Our comment from the 09/28/21
We feel we should give the SPX some leniency, as over the years we have been calculating the ratios the width of the zone has stayed the same, whereas the market itself has increased significantly.
So, a 10-point zone is now only 0.23% of a window for the index to aim at.
Considering this, we think it has done exceedingly well, especially as this index is bit of a juggernaut, as last Thursday it closed at 4448.98, then on Friday 4455.48 and yesterday it missed the bottom boundary by just under 2-points, closing at 4443.11.
In the case against leniency, we have said in the past “a miss is as good as a mile”, and let’s face it, this index had every opportunity on Friday to make decent inroads above the zone and back into bullish territory.
It does make for a difficult call, as on the one hand it has already bounced off Y2 below the zone, and having regained its zone this normally means the momentum is back with the bulls.
But, the failure to hold their zone can’t be ignored either.
The fact that the last three trading days have been in or around its zone we also think is symptomatic of a market that can’t decide.
This is also borne out by very low levels of activity over the last three days.
Also, having just spent so many expiries where the market has been content to keep knocking on the retreating ratios door, this type of behaviour is both new and difficult to get an understanding of how deep it goes.
However, first and foremost, we wholeheartedly welcome back the normality of a market that tests support and resistance either side of its zone, as this is simply just a far healthier methodology, which in no way deducts from an underlying trend, but rather strengthens it.
With this in mind, we are not yet ready to call a sea-change in attitude, but rather welcome back a more normal and sane market while the jury is out.
Range: 4345 to 4445
Activity: Very poor
Nb. Our comment for 10/06/21
The jury (please see above) didn’t really take long to decide, and it certainly wasn’t in favour of the bulls.
In our first note of this expiry, and therefore repeated in our second, we took pains to point out that at the very start of this expiry Y2 was at 4295.
It may have jumped to 4345 but, the reason we highlighted 4295 was because it still represented a step-up in ratio and that it had been tested on the very first day of this expiry, with the intraday low of 4305.91 on the 20th Sept.
The market then recovered back to its zone, which was where it was in our last comment, before finishing that week at 4357.04 having been as low as 4288.52.
The point of mentioning all this is to highlight the significance of these levels throughout this expiry so far.
On this Monday 4th Oct we saw the intraday low of 4278.94, and which being strike 3 was a very impressive hold, resulting in the close yesterday, coincidentally back at our old friend 4345.
And as one can see in the table above, Y2 is back to where it was and all the other ratios below the zone have slipped back as well.
It is not yet over for the bulls, after all there is still a week and a half to go in this expiry, but it is looking rather dire, as if they don’t react today, perhaps tomorrow, then we could very likely see the zone start to move down.
Early days, but 4345-4355 is looking likely, and if that does happen it will obviously have ramifications for the rollover and actual expiry.
In the meantime, 4295 is now on strike 4, and as these ratios are also now receding, support here is going to be a very big ask indeed.
At the moment this index’s saving grace is where its zone is currently, but watch this space as its not going to get any quieter as we head towards the final week, and that’s for sure.
Range: 4295 to 4445
Type: On balance only just bullish