The only surprise in the SPX was it was so long coming.

Nb. Our comment from 02/20/20

Not published for the March expiry.



Nb. Our comment on 02/25/20

Well, really, you should not have been surprised by this move, or the timing of it, being at the dawn of a new expiry.

If anything, it has been a result, as the Y ratio bandwidth we have been incessantly banging on about, has actually narrowed in March, to 190-points, from the 260-points in the previous trip.

Worth noting is that the intraday high last week, and actually the expiry high, was on Wednesday 19th at 3393.52, but if you look back, 3385 would be the more frequent intraday high.

The point being, that from 3385 to yesterday’s intraday low of 3214, is 171-points.

You can quibble about 19-points, but that’s close enough for us.

The ratio table above is the pertinent point now, as R1 is not that far away, which will be the big test for the bears.

As will the fact that today this index is in bear territory (below the zone), which it didn’t like last trip.

For us, that move proves nothing, as it is just through the minimal Y ratio.

Dramatic it may be, but it is only what we would expect.

The real fun comes when it starts taking on the R ratios, either side of the zone, naturally.


Range:            3195  to  3270         

Activity:          Average      

Type:              On balance only just bearish

February 25th, 2020 by