Nb. Our comment from the 02/21/22 (Not published)
Nb. Our comment on 02/28/22
Apologies for not publishing last week, especially as we appreciate it might have been rather useful to know the ratio levels. In particular, that the zone at the start of this expiry was at 7200. Coincidentally, 7200 was the low and close on Thursday.
However, before this, the pertinent ratio level was R1 at 7550.
On Monday 21st the intraday high was 7571.07 before the market gave up just under 100-points.
Then on Wednesday 23rd it revisited it with the intraday high of 7549.98, before giving up 50-points.
The fact that the zone has moved up to its current position was always on the cards but, as we have mentioned previously, because triple witching expiries are so much bigger than the intermediaries then it’s like turning an oil tanker, very slow.
The problem the FTSE faces now, is that by leaving the move so late, it has left a vast swathe of the minimal Y ratio around, but especially below the zone.
And if this wasn’t bad enough, as triple expiries progress, they tend to get far less sensitive than intermediaries, so rather than reacting to R1 it would be entirely in keeping if March went on to test R3 or even higher levels.
And March still has three weeks to go, so we could easily see a range of 7050 all the way up to 7650, although it hasn’t done badly already, going from 7550 down to 7200 and back up again.
Probably be too big an ask to see it see this week out in its zone, but you never know.
Range: 7450 to 7550