Nb. Our comment from the 01/26/21
If it’s any consolation we are feeling a bit guilty for not mentioning the fact that the zone did indeed move yesterday.
However, in our defence, we did say to take note of the new “shoo-in” level, 3795-3805.
Those that did were hopefully well prepared when the market fell yesterday to its intraday low of 3797.16, as this was definitely a test of the new zones’ bottom boundary.
And for those more familiar with our analysis, then they would also appreciate that this is also the demarcation line between bullish and bearish territory.
As such it can prove to be a hotly contested area, as was the case yesterday.
Although, this index being in Y1 ratio yesterday, this was exactly what we would expect, being a 60-point move, 120-points if you count there and back.
So, lots of big moves, whipsaw and volatility.
This index is still in a gargantuan Y1 ratio bandwidth, 310-points, and, if possible, an even bigger overall Y ratio bandwidth, 485-points.
Furthermore, we still have virtually a full four more weeks to go.
And so far, although activity is there, it is not really making that big an inroad, so we don’t envisage these bandwidths decreasing significantly any time soon.
Therefore, we would not expect things quietening down soon, in fact probably the reverse.
All in all, this expiry is building up to be tremendously exciting, and if Y2 fails to influence proceedings, then it could even become a classic.
Range: 3805 to 3905
Activity: Average
Type: On balance decently bearish
Nb. Our comment for 02/02/21
Well, the market most certainly has not quietened down, so all as normal and very much expected in our eyes.
Therefore, please do not read too much, in fact anything at all, into these moves, as they are simply a result of there being virtually no ratio around.
In fact, it is worth pointing out that the intraday low on Thursday 29th was 3694.12, which many may remember was the bottom boundary of the old zone, when it was 3695-3705 just a few days ago.
The point of mentioning this is that this level still represents a step-up in ratio, albeit a step-up within the Y1 ratio bandwidth means it is hardly big, it was still evidently sufficient, which means this index is still extremely sensitive.
Please don’t forget it was Y2, then at 3855, that caught this market with the intraday high of 3859.75, back on Wednesday 20th Jan.
Getting back to the present, and at last we have seen some decent activity, and on both sides, so at least the ratios are moving.
However, the zone is the all-important level, and the failure to reach it after last Thursday’s rally should have been a warning.
Interestingly we are seeing 3745-3755 make a move to being the next one, which would be bit of a game changer as it’s a bearish move, so we will keep a weather eye on developments here.
Although the respective Y ratio bandwidths have shrunk, there is still plenty of room there, with Y1 still being 275-points wide for example.
Furthermore, we still have almost a full three weeks to go in this expiry, so now we are seeing activity, as long as it continues, we should now start seeing things go up a notch or two as we enter the back nine.
Food for thought: Just imagine what might happen if this market became aggressive and now fancied taking on the R ratios?
Range: 3595 to 3795
Activity: Good
Type: Neutral
