Sep
22
2022
September 22nd, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE was in ratio trouble from day1

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/19/2022 (Not published)

 

Nb. Our comment on 09/21/22

 

Well, the September expiry did end up a textbook one.

On the Wednesday and Thursday, the intraday lows were 7259.24 and 7258.67 respectively, and the EDSP was 7264.45. So, there was no doubt at all they held it in its zone over the rollover and expiry, which when you consider what was happening in the US, then this is even more impressive.

Moving swiftly on to more important matters…October, and the new 5-week expiry.

Obviously, the close last Friday was south of the zone, so the grand intentions of September evidently didn’t carry across into the October expiry.

With the short notice Bank Holiday on Monday no doubt affecting things, Tuesday was going to be crucial in determining what the possible intentions might be for this expiry.

And having been almost 100-points higher at one stage seemed to answer that. However, it really didn’t take much to knock the legs out from under that rally, and very early on into the proceedings as well.

More importantly, the bottom boundary of the zone (7250) hardly put up any resistance at all. In stark contrast to the week before.

The next level of support is not until it hits Y2 at 7150.

After that, you have to wait until 7050 before it hits R1.

Even from the very start the ratios were lopsided (no Y ratio above the zone), so it always had the potential to be a hard slog this expiry for the bulls.

Therefore, the only question that really remains, is what will tempt them back in to the fray, Y2, R1 or might it take R3 at 6950?

 

Range:            7050  to  7250      

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral

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Sep
05
2022
September 5th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE condenses an entire expiry into just two weeks, a sign or is it now done?

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/30/2022

And too much for them it certainly was.

A very interesting thing also happened last Monday 22nd as the intraday high was in fact 7550.41 (the previous close and Monday’s open being 7550.37).

We never saw it, don’t think anyone did actually, but it’s there in black and white for all eternity despite it being an anomaly IOHO.

The warning signs were there, as on both Tuesday and Thursday the market got back up to the low/mid-thirties.

And we have said this often in the past, that when the market knows there is a huge futures seller at 7550 and then starts playing “you first”, “no, after you” and “please, I insist” but no one is being brave enough to knock on that door again, it’s always a bad sign. Great if you’re a bear though naturally.

Getting back to the present, and the significance of this market closing below 7450 should not be underestimated.

This is because the next level of support is in fact the zone, the upper boundary still being at 7350.

Of course, London is going to be playing catch-up as it was closed yesterday so still has to account for a chunk of Friday’s drop as well as Monday’s.

But, if the FTSE does test its zone, we will be happy to speculate that when we published our comment on the 22nd mentioning the zone at 7300, not many, if any, probably saw that as a likely target.

Means that our trading range is quite a significant one this time, as 7450 will be a big test for any bulls, whereas if the upper boundary at 7350 doesn’t hold then the lower boundary will very probably come into play.

 

Range:            7350  to  7450      

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 09/05/22

We do sincerely hope that you did take notice of our ratio levels, as you should then have had an outstanding week.

In fact, everything we talked about actually played out in London on the very day the market reopened, Tuesday 30th August.

From the open it went on to test R3 at 7450 but, by the end of the day it had also tested the upper boundary of its zone, 7350.

Which did hold, the intraday low being 7351.12, but that did create a bandwidth test. Meaning a breakout was imminent.

As the market closed that day at 7361.63 the odds were in favour of that breakout being down into its zone.

Wednesday saw the zones bottom boundary tested, 7250, which also made that day a zone bandwidth test.

The next level of support was R3 at 7150, and if you knew that then you pretty much had Thursday and Friday covered. Thursday’s intraday low was 7131.69 whereas Fridays was 7148.50.

The trouble is that the FTSE has now crammed into two weeks what we would expect to take the entire expiry. Well, three weeks actually, the final week being needed to get it back to its zone.

We have seen this setup before, and in those instances the market stayed in its zone for the entire third week (excitedly going nowhere) before the final week breakout.

Therefore, we would like to see the same, but we doubt this will happen as there are too many geopolitical things going on.

So, all we can say, is take note of the ratio levels and then watch very carefully what the market does when its around them, as either up or down, it has now been there already.

 

Range:            7250  to  7350      

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              On balance bearish

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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Aug
30
2022
August 30th, 2022 by Richard

After coming unstuck at DR Ratio at 7550 the FTSE is now in a critical bandwidth.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/22/2022

The August expiry was even more bullish than we thought/predicted it would be, ending up with a gain of 416.49-points (5.84%) on the EDSP of 7550.62.

And not only was 7550 the settlement price, it is also the closing level for the FTSE.

This is very significant, as the actual real time closing price of the FTSE was in fact 7539.79, down 2.06-points.

So, not only has the auction turned a loss into a gain (so much for transparent and representative market data then) but it has also taken it to a very significant ratio level as well.

For those not sure of the significance of this it is because in real time both the futures and equity market are open, whereas the auction is the preserve of equities only. Therefore, the auction takes place without allowing for any dynamic delta or hedging to take place from the derivative stock index options and futures.

The end result is that today, this index is going to start right on DR ratio, which is a lot, even for a triple.

By the end of a triple, we always say that they can, and frequently do, trade up to the B ratio levels, such is the huge increase in activity in both derivatives and index equities created via stock index options and futures hedging.

But, at the very start of the expiry, DR is a lot of dynamic delta futures selling for a market to absorb.

On top of which, the zone is down at 7300.

Hat’s off to the bulls if they are that committed, but we suspect this will be too much for them to contend with, at least for this week.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550        or        7550  to  7700      

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 08/30/22

 

And too much for them it certainly was.

A very interesting thing also happened last Monday 22nd as the intraday high was in fact 7550.41 (the previous close and Monday’s open being 7550.37).

We never saw it, don’t think anyone did actually, but it’s there in black and white for all eternity despite it being an anomaly IOHO.

The warning signs were there, as on both Tuesday and Thursday the market got back up to the low/mid-thirties.

And we have said this often in the past, that when the market knows there is a huge futures seller at 7550 and then starts playing “you first”, “no, after you” and “please, I insist” but no one is being brave enough to knock on that door again, it’s always a bad sign. Great if you’re a bear though naturally.

Getting back to the present, and the significance of this market closing below 7450 should not be underestimated.

This is because the next level of support is in fact the zone, the upper boundary still being at 7350.

Of course, London is going to be playing catch-up as it was closed yesterday so still has to account for a chunk of Friday’s drop as well as Monday’s.

But, if the FTSE does test its zone, we will be happy to speculate that when we published our comment on the 22nd mentioning the zone at 7300, not many, if any, probably saw that as a likely target.

Means that our trading range is quite a significant one this time, as 7450 will be a big test for any bulls, whereas if the upper boundary at 7350 doesn’t hold then the lower boundary will very probably come into play.

 

Range:            7350  to  7450      

Activity:          Poor

Type:              Bearish

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Aug
22
2022
August 22nd, 2022 by Richard

As the September expiry starts the FTSE is now facing a huge Ratio level.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/15/2022 (Not published)

Nb. Our comment on 08/22/22

 

The August expiry was even more bullish than we thought/predicted it would be, ending up with a gain of 416.49-points (5.84%) on the EDSP of 7550.62.

And not only was 7550 the settlement price, it is also the closing level for the FTSE.

This is very significant, as the actual real time closing price of the FTSE was in fact 7539.79, down 2.06-points.

So, not only has the auction turned a loss into a gain (so much for transparent and representative market data then) but it has also taken it to a very significant ratio level as well.

For those not sure of the significance of this it is because in real time both the futures and equity market are open, whereas the auction is the preserve of equities only. Therefore, the auction takes place without allowing for any dynamic delta or hedging to take place from the derivative stock index options and futures.

The end result is that today, this index is going to start right on DR ratio, which is a lot, even for a triple.

By the end of a triple, we always say that they can, and frequently do, trade up to the B ratio levels, such is the huge increase in activity in both derivatives and index equities created via stock index options and futures hedging.

But, at the very start of the expiry, DR is a lot of dynamic delta futures selling for a market to absorb.

On top of which, the zone is down at 7300.

Hat’s off to the bulls if they are that committed, but we suspect this will be too much for them to contend with, at least for this week.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550        or        7550  to  7700      

Activity:          Poor

Type:              On balance bearish

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Aug
15
2022
August 15th, 2022 by Richard

The risk: reward ratio changes in the FTSE as Aug expiry comes to an end and Sept looms large.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 08/08/2022

Why waste time? Which is exactly the attitude of the FTSE at the moment.

Since our last comment, please see above, where we mentioned it had gone to a lot of effort to stay in bullish territory above its zone and that it was clear all the way up to 7450…it has just powered on up until it hit aforementioned 7450.

During the course of this journey, it has also moved the zone up.

This we see as a natural move, occasioned by the lack of ratio in that huge Y ratio bandwidth that was there a couple of weeks ago, rather than any great bullish manipulation.

To underline this point, below the zone, OK 7050 has gone from Y2 to R1, but otherwise R2, R3 and DR have all remained static.

Admittedly, above the zone, the ratios have slipped, but they were doing that two weeks ago, and anyway, with the huge move in this market this is by and large a natural by-product of this.

So, what next?

Well, 7450 is the new critical level. Now because it is the top boundary of the zone but, previously, it was because it was R1.

Don’t forget at the start of this expiry 7450 was Y2, then became R1, so this is it just retuning to where it came from.

However, the difference now to two weeks ago, is that Wednesday’s intraday high and close was 7445, Thursday’s close was 7448 and Friday’s 7439. All inside the zone.

There is still two weeks to go, but the market is certainly not as aggressive as it was a fortnight ago. There is still some upside, R1 now starting at 7550, but there is also now a lot of downside. Apart from the actual zone of course, the corresponding R1 is all the way down there at 7050, so the risk: reward ratio has changed considerably now, at least for us that is.

 

Range:            7350  to  7450      

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Neutral

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 08/15/22

 

And here we are, at the end of the August expiry, and one which certainly has been “one for the bulls”.

We have said this before but, one of the main aims of looking at the hedge ratios, is so that one can determine when the market is out of kilter with reality. When we say reality, what we actually mean, is that the market fails to respond to the futures coming on to the market via the dynamic delta. If this is futures selling, and the market is a willing buyer, then all is good. But and this is a big but, at some stage this appetite, or emotion, will fade, leaving the dynamic delta to take charge.

For us this is where this market is now.

Essentially, it has broken up through its zone, met with the futures selling generated by the minimal Y1 ratio dynamic delta, and simply stalled.

The desire is there (for the bulls) but the appetite just isn’t. At the end of this week the FTSE has added just 60-points (0.81%) whereas the S&P500 has added 135-points (3.26%).

And on top of this you now have the rollover and expiry for the market to contend with.

Furthermore, next up is the September expiry, the third of the “biggies” this year, and so this makes it the second biggest this year by sheer volume. Only the Dec expiry is bigger.

After Wall Street’s performance on Friday most would anticipate the market opening stronger this side of the pond, and as one can see in the table above, the FTSE is right in the middle of its Y1 ratio bandwidth.

So, although the Y1 dynamic delta has up to now, applied the brakes to the bulls’ exuberance, lurking dead ahead is R1 at 7550. This is also already a significant ratio level in the Sept expiry. So, it might get frisky this week but, as we said previously, “the risk: reward ratio has changed considerably now”.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550      

Activity:          Average

Type:              Bearish

 

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Jul
25
2022
July 25th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE has a very wide potential trading range for the August expiry

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/20/2022

Firstly, our final comment on the July expiry where the zone did move down to 7150-7250, meaning that 7150 remained a critical level, but now for two reasons. The EDSP was 7134.13, so close and a sterling effort, but still a smidgen shy. Interestingly, the market actually closed at 7159.01.

So, the first day of the August expiry for the FTSE was all about its zone.

The fact that the intraday high was 7268.88 just hides the fact that this index had many hours in a running battle with 7250, the top boundary of its zone.

And as one can see in the table above, above the zone it is only Y1, so to hold the market back at all meant it was punching above its weight.

Worth noting is the fact, that as things stand, Y2 does not even start until 7450, so there is ample room for this market to go ahead into, if it so desires.

However, and especially for those who have read our comment on the SPX yesterday, the difference in the FTSE is that the corresponding Y2 and R1 ratio levels below the zone are 400 and 500-points away respectively.

That is a long way, particularly for this index.

This is also a 5-week expiry, so the first week can be deemed a bit superfluous, and if this is the case then we haven’t seen this expiry true colours yet.

All we can say, is that London has plenty of scope as things stand, to make a significant move, but in either direction.

The fact it has elected to go above its zone and into bullish territory certainly gives further moves in the same direction the upper hand, but don’t lose sight of the risks.

 

Range:            7250  to  7450      

Activity:          Strong

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/25/22

 

As the FTSE returns to its more usual Monday slot, there are a few interesting things going on.

The main one being this markets insistence on staying above its zone, and therefore in bullish territory. The real test was on Thursday when the intraday low was 7200.14, and the real time close was 7257.98. 7-points is nothing to the closing auction, so it could easily have finished back inside its zone, but it chose to turn a 6-point deficit on the day to a 6-point gain, closing at 7270.51 (after an extended auction as well).

The second interesting aspect is that above the zone there is 200-points of the minimal Y1 ratio, and yet here it is just 26-points above the upper boundary.

This seems a lot of effort and considerable expense to go to and not take advantage of this essentially open space.

Then there is the fact that Y2 above the zone has gone, and been replaced by R1, a considerable strengthening. And yet, R2 has slipped 100-point, from 7550 to 7650, and R3 has gone, a considerable weakening.

Luckily below the zone it is a bit more conventional, but no mistake, above it is somewhat contradictory.

Finally, although the “type” of activity has come in as neutral, this is because as much money has been taken off the table on both sides. The interesting aspect of this is that this is when this 5-week expiry is just but days old, so really rather rare to see.

Now we are into the more normal 4-week timeline, things may start to become clearer but, in the absence of anything concrete, it is exactly as we said last week.

As it is above its zone the bulls have the edge, and it is clear all the way up to 7450 but, the upper boundary of the zone (7250) remains critical, and don’t lose sight of all that Y ratio below the zone as that makes the potential overall trading range for the next four weeks 7000 up to 7450. Enjoy.

 

Range:            7250  to  7450      

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral

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Jul
20
2022
July 20th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE starts the Aug expiry well, but there is little ratio...either way.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 07/18/2022 (Not published)

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/20/22

 

Firstly, our final comment on the July expiry where the zone did move down to 7150-7250, meaning that 7150 remained a critical level, but now for two reasons. The EDSP was 7134.13, so close and a sterling effort, but still a smidgen shy. Interestingly, the market actually closed at 7159.01.

So, the first day of the August expiry for the FTSE was all about its zone.

The fact that the intraday high was 7268.88 just hides the fact that this index had many hours in a running battle with 7250, the top boundary of its zone.

And as one can see in the table above, above the zone it is only Y1, so to hold the market back at all meant it was punching above its weight.

Worth noting is the fact, that as things stand, Y2 does not even start until 7450, so there is ample room for this market to go ahead into, if it so desires.

However, and especially for those who have read our comment on the SPX yesterday, the difference in the FTSE is that the corresponding Y2 and R1 ratio levels below the zone are 400 and 500-points away respectively.

That is a long way, particularly for this index.

This is also a 5-week expiry, so the first week can be deemed a bit superfluous, and if this is the case then we haven’t seen this expiry true colours yet.

All we can say, is that London has plenty of scope as things stand, to make a significant move, but in either direction.

The fact it has elected to go above its zone and into bullish territory certainly gives further moves in the same direction the upper hand, but don’t lose sight of the risks.

 

Range:            7250  to  7450      

Activity:          Strong

Type:              Neutral

Available to buy now

The faction account of the Big Bang, The Great Storm and the market crash of 1987, available in eBook and paperback here, a must read if you don’t believe in history repeating itself.

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Jul
04
2022
July 4th, 2022 by Richard

The FTSE returns to 7150, now R2 but still as critical.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/22/2022

Obviously, there were some huge changes in the ratios in the last few days of the June expiry but, sadly we were not around to record them, so who knows.

The one thing for certain though, is that it must have gotten seriously out of control, as even if June’s zone ended up where July’s has started, it was still a huge miss on Friday as the EDSP was 7108.24.

Not only that, when we shut up shop, B1 was at 7150. Of course, it would have fallen, and considerably so, but there is no escaping that at the end the market would have been amid a considerable amount of ratio. So, very very expensive for someone.

Which brings us round to this new expiry, the July trip.

And, straight from the very start, the FTSE was imbedded deep into some high ratios.

In a triple we always say it gets very heated, and naturally seeks out the higher ratios to compensate for the huge increase in overall activity. However, this is an intermediary, so it should revert back to being sensitive to the low to mid-range R ratios.

And yet, here it was, starting life just a smidgen north of DR. Quite the rude awakening.

Also, we are not overly surprised with the battle that took place all day yesterday at 7150, as this is a very significant level.

One look at the above table tells you that.

In fact, the ratios are so lopsided this expiry, it is now dangerous being short. Foolish not to have at least extremely tight stops.

7150 will decide whether or not this market digs itself out of a ratio mess, and can head back up to its zone, or not. Big call.

 

Range:            6850  to  7150        or        7150  to  7350      

Activity:          Outstanding

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 07/04/22

 

“Big call” indeed, as the FTSE had to dig itself out of the R3 ratio hole it had dug itself into first.

By which we mean the open on the very day we last published, the 22nd June, when the market opened below 7150 and really looked in a very sorry state.

Sadly, we just don’t know when 7150 changed from R3 to R2, but whenever it was, this was always the crucial level.

Still is, as having gone all the way back up to its zone’s bottom boundary, at 7350, here we are back at R2 again.

That failure, on the 28th and 29th, when the intraday highs were 7362.37 and 7345.45 respectively, was very damaging for the bulls. Therefore, the fact that the market closes on Thursday and Friday last week were all about 7150 again, should have come as no surprise.

The fact that the Y1 ratio bandwidth below the zone is 200-points wide, also accounts for the big moves, essentially from 7350 to 7150.

So, although it may have appeared exciting at the time, in essence this market has gone absolutely nowhere in two weeks.

Definitely more troubling for the bulls, as not breaking back up into its zone at 7350 shows a worrying lack of commitment from them. Whereas the bears, have been happy to make deep intraday inroads into the R2 ratio bandwidth. However, both are now on strike three from last week alone.

As we are now just at the half way stage of this expiry, there is ample time left. So, although the market hasn’t really moved in the last two weeks, it does now know where the pertinent levels are. Therefore, game on, we think.

 

Range:            7050  to  7150        or        7150  to  7350      

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance only just bullish

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Jun
14
2022
June 14th, 2022 by Richard

It is all gearing up for a typical end to a triple witching expiry, so we hope you were/are ready for it.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 06/06/2022

Very short week last week courtesy of the Jubilee, but none the duller for it.

Monday was all about finding its feet in the R1 ratio bandwidth it was in. Testing the water as it were.

Tuesday, having got used to it, saw it push ahead to the next point of resistance. Namely R2, and exactly where we had put the top of our trading range, for this very reason. So, when we saw the intraday high of 7648.26, we hoped you too had noticed and were aware of its significance.

Interestingly, on the Wednesday (the last trading day of last week), we saw the intraday high of 7639.21. This was not another test of R2, but something more valuable, as it is a good sign of everyone opening the door for someone else to go through first.

By this we mean, when you know there is a large futures seller at 7650, having just been there and seen the tip of the iceberg, if you are not a futures buyer, then it is only natural to let, or want to let, someone else go first. And if everyone is of a like mind, then you get a stalled market just below said ratio level.

Finally, the close was back inside its zone.

Nice, safe and cosy for the very long weekend.

Nevertheless, it was over 100-points drop from Tuesday’s high.

For this week, you now know that the market knows that above 7550 it is R1, and at 7650 there is a large futures seller. Otherwise, it is back inside its zone, where there is no ratio at all for the 100-points that this comprises. And something to watch out for, especially as we are only half way through this expiry, is that at the other end of the zone it is only Y ratio.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550       

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Not bullish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/13/22

It is good to have a bit of continuity, hence we always include (for better, and sometimes even for worse) what we said the previous week, just so you can reacquaint yourself with the thread of the expiry.

However, this time, we sincerely hope you also read last weeks comment about the SPX, especially the bit about volatility returning just in time for the rollover and expiry this week.

Anyway, about midday last Monday (6/6/22) we saw another test of R2 at 7650 with the intraday high of 7646.66.

Our analogy above, about holding the door open for others to go through fist, is just as good even if it is by just a few points. The other scenario is that one, or more, players are aggressive, and that way you get a deep incursion into the next bandwidth. In either case, it should give you invaluable insight into the market forces at play in that instant.

Obviously, Monday was not a good sign for the bulls.

From then on, it was just a steady progression all the way back into its zone.

Friday was a bit of a surprise, well to the greater London market participants anyway, as hopefully you would have anticipated the SPX going a little wild.

Then, just as it didn’t bother much with R1 when it was heading north of its zone, then neither would we expect it to have much influence below.

Dropping through R2 at 7350 was an interesting battle though, which under more normal circumstances we would have expected it to hold.

The big question therefore, is will R3 at 7250?

Well, as it is rollover and expiry, with that extra gravitational influence, then yes, hopefully it will. Worth noting, R2 in the SPX on Friday stood at 3895.

But all the levels are there for all to see in the table above, as is where the zone is but, at the end of the day, the only certainty is that this is what we expect a typical end to a triple witching expiry would be.

 

Range:            7250  to  7350       

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Bearish

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Jun
06
2022
June 6th, 2022 by Richard

After testing R2 the FTSE decided it was best to spend the long Jubilee weekend in its zone, smart.

 

Nb. Our comment from the 05/30/2022

Having fun yet?

Well, we certainly hope so but, and apologies for being the bringer of bad tidings, the FTSE is caught up in bit of a ratio nightmare for the next few weeks.

Last week was all about the zone, which it jumped straight back into on the Monday. Tuesday was all about staying in it. Whereas the Wednesday and Thursday were all about breaking out above it.

With the intraday low on Friday being 7542.78, or the zones upper boundary (7550), we saw resistance turn into support.

But and this is where it gets a bit problematic, as travelling up through the 100-points of the zone, where there is no ratio at all, is the easy bit.

Now the FTSE is in a 100-point bandwidth of R1 ratio. Not impossible to negotiate, especially for a triple. But, nevertheless, a level of ratio that will still produce a degree of futures selling onto the market that will have to be absorbed for it to progress.

The problematic part, is that from 7650 upwards there are some considerably weightier levels of ratio, where even a triple may have difficulty in coping with those quantities of dynamic delta.

In contrast, we saw the SPX’s zone dive down to 4000 but, the side effect of this, was to leave only the minimal Y ratio above it…all the way up to 4605.

And that is the issue in a nutshell. The S&P 500 has 15% of blue skies above it, whereas the FTSE hits the dynamic delta storm after about just 1%.

Of course, the ratios change daily, and significantly so, especially in regard to the lower levels but, even so, where we are concerned, if you are a bull, Stateside is where you need to be and not in London.

 

Range:            7550  to  7650       

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

Nb. Our comment on 06/06/22

 

Very short week last week courtesy of the Jubilee, but none the duller for it.

Monday was all about finding its feet in the R1 ratio bandwidth it was in. Testing the water as it were.

Tuesday, having got used to it, saw it push ahead to the next point of resistance. Namely R2, and exactly where we had put the top of our trading range, for this very reason. So, when we saw the intraday high of 7648.26, we hoped you too had noticed and were aware of its significance.

Interestingly, on the Wednesday (the last trading day of last week), we saw the intraday high of 7639.21. This was not another test of R2, but something more valuable, as it is a good sign of everyone opening the door for someone else to go through first.

By this we mean, when you know there is a large futures seller at 7650, having just been there and seen the tip of the iceberg, if you are not a futures buyer, then it is only natural to let, or want to let, someone else go first. And if everyone is of a like mind, then you get a stalled market just below said ratio level.

Finally, the close was back inside its zone.

Nice, safe and cosy for the very long weekend.

Nevertheless, it was over 100-points drop from Tuesday’s high.

For this week, you now know that the market knows that above 7550 it is R1, and at 7650 there is a large futures seller. Otherwise, it is back inside its zone, where there is no ratio at all for the 100-points that this comprises. And something to watch out for, especially as we are only half way through this expiry, is that at the other end of the zone it is only Y ratio.

 

Range:            7450  to  7550       

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Not bullish

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