Nb. Our comment from the 03/17/22 (Not published)
Nb. Our comment on 03/21/22
For the record the FTSE spent the entire rollover Wednesday in its zone, so that was definitely job done. The Thursday and Friday are then just free to do what they want after that really.
Looking at the April expiry and we have to remind everyone that we just crunch the numbers and then try to interpret the results, so we have no control whatsoever as to what those numbers actually are.
We are pointing this out as it does look a very weird expiry.
First up is the fact the zone is 7550-7650 which, when you consider this market just a fortnight ago was battling it out with the ratio at 6950, is just a little odd.
It is basically as if the March expiry never happened.
Secondly, and probably as a direct result of the very high zone, there is a 400-point wide Y1 ratio bandwidth below it. That’s 5.4%, and this is just to start.
Obviously, the zone could easily move anywhere in this bandwidth, which might change the picture somewhat, but one thing that won’t change that quickly is that this is a huge expanse with absolutely minimal ratio in it.
Then when you add in the zone itself and the Y ratio above it, you are then staring at a possible trading range of 7150 all the way up to 7700, a staggering 550-points, or 7.4%. And this is a normal 4-week expiry, well not entirely normal as it expires on Thursday 14th due to the Bank Holiday.
Definitely going to be a fun trip this expiry, so best buckle-up tight.
Range: 7150 to 7550
Type: On balance bearish