SPX Sept to Oct Ratio Rollover Table 19th Sept 2018
And twitch the SPX obviously has and exactly what we said back on the 11th September “then 2845-2855 for the zone is very likely, as is 2895-2905 now, which would be a massive game-changer” has come to pass.
There is no doubt that a considerable risk remains, as there is no disguising a 100-points of Y ratio still below the new zone, but as things stand it looks like a very compliant end to the Sept expiry.
Basically 3 out of the last 4 closes were 2904.18, 2904.98 and 2904.31, with the last one being yesterday, which means rollover Wednesday and this index will start in its zone, and you just can’t ask for more than that.
The good news for volatility lovers is that having the rollover in its zone means the shackles are off for the next two days, so we may well get a decent “grey area”.
Range: 2895 to 2905
Type: On balance bearish
At this point in time for the August rollover 5-weeks ago we commented that September would be a rare triple that would be contained by just the R1 ratios, and it very nearly was.
And from the very first day all the way back to the 20th August this index was at war with R1, initially at 2865 and as it receded it did have a go at R2, when it peaked at 2916.50 in the second week, but after that the fight had gone and it has just been a case of waiting for their zone to play catch-up.
How will October pan out then? This is a difficult one, as always, as R1 to corresponding R1 is 2795 up to 2945, so left to its own devices then it has a potential 150-point trading range.
However, a lot will depend on the other indices, especially the DJX, so before one rushes to a decision it would be best to see how their respective ratios are aligned as we strongly suspect that with so much wriggle room here they will be happy to just go along with someone else’s agenda, assuming they have one.
If we do get a decent grey area however, then by Monday the situation for this expiry could easily be decided for it.
Range: 2895 to 2905