SPX ratio erosion, NDX NZ change and DJX, today’s levels and comment.


The ratio erosion in the SPX continues while below the zone it continues to rise and by enough now that it has at last breached R2 which was bit of a dam.

However, all the important stuff is still above the zone, and a move up to 2695-2705 is still very much on the cards, and it may not even be the last we see this expiry.

This in itself is very unusual, as here a move an expiry is quite raunchy, and yet we have had two already in Jan.

Anyway, R2 has indeed moved to 2755, but more importantly that is it now.

This is not just rare, but rather unique, as to our knowledge all three US indices have never been north of all their respective highest ratio, so R2 is actually now historical.


Range:            2730  to  2755

Activity           Moderate

Type:              On balance bearish


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The NDX is back in Y1 ratio but that is only because the ratios are falling faster than the market is rising.

However, the market won’t know this until it hits 6725 so it may well still have an impact.

Otherwise the NZ here jumps to 6475-6525 making its second move of this expiry, however this is not unusual at all for this index, but what is slightly different is it is very early on as we have just started the back nine.

But the most glaring aspect across all three is the lack of meaningful ratio above their respective zones.


Range:            6525  to  6725

Activity:          Very good

Type:              On balance just bearish



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As we mentioned in the DJX it is all about the trade at 24900 and how long it is going to remain.

In the meantime, all we can say is that we are now very much in “uncomfortable” territory, so depending on the open the daily range should be between the 2 big figures in a 200-point range.


Range:            24900  to  …… 

Activity:          Very good

Type:              On balance only just bullish



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January 9th, 2018 by