Nb. Our comment from the 09/27/22
The last five trading days has simply been a ratio stepping-stone decline.
We last published on Tuesday 20th. On Wednesday 21st the market intraday low was 3789.49 and close was 3789.93.
R1 was, and still is, at 3795. Of course, this was the day the Fed hiked by 0.75%, but it was the rhetoric that did the damage, so for R1 to even have an influence was pretty amazing. The fact that the market closed just a few points below it, was also rather significant…as we have seen in the past.
Next stepping-stone was R2 at 3745, on the Thursday, and the market duly obliged with the intraday low of 3749.45.
Could this have been pivotal? Obviously not, but as the market gapped down at the open on Friday to 3727.14 this was a moot point anyway.
So, Friday and Monday (yesterday) were all about the next stepping-stone, R3 at 3645.
Fridays intraday low was 3647.47 and yesterdays was 3644.76.
Apologies, we probably should have warned you when R3 fell from 3670 to 3645, sorry.
Anyway, it is still there but, having had two severe battering’s over the last two days, it is understandably weakened. In fact, so much so, it is only just above the threshold, and if the rate of decline continues today then it won’t be for much longer.
Actually, you now have to be looking at the low 3600’s to see the same level of R3 ratio that this market first encountered on Thursday.
Sometimes, strike two can be enough of a confirmation and can turn a market around (especially with the FTSE rebounding so well off 6950, giving it a friend), but please remember that the next time it goes down there, not only is it only just R3 but that would be strike three.
At least the bulls have the dynamic delta batting in their corner now, so the only question that remains is whether or not they want to make use of it?
Range: 3645 to 3745
Type: On balance bullish
Nb. Our comment for 10/12/22
The SPX has certainly continued with its “stepping-stone decline”, which has been quite relentless in fact.
Also, apologies for the lack of comment as we appreciate without it this is perhaps not so obvious to you as it is to us.
On Friday 30th September the market intraday low was 3584.13 when R3 had fallen to 3595. Sadly, without any updates, our last published table had R3 AT 3645. Funnily enough, between these two dates, R3 paused ever so briefly at 3620, coincidentally the day when the intraday low was 3623. Anyway, the following Monday and Tuesday, saw this index put on over 200-points.
However, and as one can see in the above table, the decline in the ratios below the zone has continued unabated. So much so, that now R3 is standing at 3495, having been 3520 yesterday. Which was never going to help the bulls of course.
For the record, a more solid line would be 3545, and anticipating the rate of decline is very haphazard but we nevertheless thought it worth mentioning.
The real issue now, is the zone.
Especially as next week is the rollover and expiry.
So far, it hasn’t budged, which honestly is bit of a surprise. However, with Y1 now appearing below said zone, and the final week approaching, we are certain it won’t stay like this for much longer.
First the rate of decline in the ratios below the zone, especially R3, has to be arrested.
Then the zone needs to drop to an attainable level. These do not have to happen independently either by the way.
This will then pave the way for derivatives to rescue some semblance of control over this expiry and, very probably, mitigate some of those losses that must be staring someone in the face.
The trick will be in the timing.
Range: 3495 to 3645