The move yesterday in the SPX was more like the breakout so we are putting the scare on Tuesday down to being just that and then the move on Wednesday was the result of the NZ bandwidth test on Monday.
Emails are still pertinent these days it seems.
Interestingly Y2 hasn’t changed much above the zone at all, effectively it has been either 2450 or 2455 and so far the high this expiry is 2453.82 on the 19th June although it did get back up to 2450.42 on the 26th.
Therefore our first target is Y2 at 2455 but as we said the decision seems to be with the DJX so please see our comments below.
Range: 2430 to 2455
Not only is the NDX’s stall set out they are selling like hotcakes as the 1.21% move yesterday proves and it hasn’t even yet come close to the step-up point.
The open was a gap up of 48 points so it made its intentions obvious from the start and with potential moves like this a bit of forewarning is almost essential especially as it only managed to add a further 20 points during the day so no doubt where the bulk of the move came.
The step-up is still at 5825, but remember it is only one within the Y1 ratio bandwidth, but Y2 slipping to 5875 shows weakness in the ratios above the zone so a rising market into falling ratios is always a good sign.
Range: 5675 to 5875
Type: On balance bullish
Now comes the real test for the DJX as this is their first close outside their NZ for well over 2 weeks, which is a very long time indeed where markets are concerned.
For us the recent dearth of activity flowed by a small flash yesterday combined with today’s does not look like it really wants to be here.
In fact the improvement we saw in the ratios below the zone yesterday is a bit like one step forward and then today is two steps back.
Of course only time will tell and it has a very decent Y1 ratio bandwidth to play in so it is therefore just a question of whether or not they actually want to.
Range: 21300 to 21500 or 21500 to 21900
Type: On balance only just not bearish