SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 10th Oct 2018
The trouble in the SPX started last Thursday, with a fall of 41.59-points taking it below its zone.
However, the fact it closed back inside it meant that it was still clinging on.
So, the trouble may have started Thu, but it was Fri that put this index in trouble, with the close of 2885.57, below the bottom boundary.
It still had its chances, especially on Tuesday with the intraday high of 2894.83 knocking on the door of their zones bottom boundary asking to be let back in.
With that rejection, and just like Europe, it needs to find support, or in other words the R ratios, and they don’t now start until 2845, which it would be well worth noting is up from 2840, so a little bit of leeway may be necessary.
Range: 2845 to 2895
Type: On balance bearish
Again, what has happened in the NDX should have held no surprise, our last comment was “overall, especially under these circumstances, we would be bullish, but this time the lack of desire across all three does raise a significant concern, as no matter what the circumstances being so timid as to react to just Y2 makes it very susceptible to anyone, or anything, saying boo”.
This makes where the market is very significant indeed, as the ratios on both sides have continued to come in towards the zone, so now Y2 below the zone is at 7375.
It has come from 7325, and as we say below, we just don’t know when, however as Friday’s intraday low was 7327.44, so we have to suspect sometime this week.
Actually, it’s not just a significant level for trading, but as this market was so unceremoniously slapped back from Y2 at 7700 with the intraday high of 7700.56, which is also currently the expiry high, then if Y2 holds below the zone it will give this index a shot at getting back to its zone for the rollover and a perfect expiry.
It is very emotive out there though, and Monday’s low was 7267.02, so it might need a friend, which judging by the table above would mean the SPX and their R1.
Range: 7200 to 7375 OR 7375 to 7475
Type: On balance just fractionally bearish
To be honest what has happened recently should have come as no surprise had one been following the DJX’s ratios this trip.
From “it is no wonder this index is making all the large moves, and there certainly isn’t any ratio around to change that at the moment” is one example from our last comment.
At that time the top of the zone was 27000 and the intraday high, and high so far this expiry, is 26951, and as we said then that left it with 300-points of no ratio below it.
Unlike the SPX on last Thursday this index did not regain its zone, finishing at 26627, having been down 357-points.
As you can see the zone is still 300-points wide, but has also now reverted back to its old level, albeit a lot wider.
Sadly, we do not compile these ratios every day anymore, so we don’t know exactly when this change actually occurred, but it does now make 26500 a very significant level, and the last two days intraday highs have been 26529 and 26539, so we guess it was Monday.
As we said from the last rollover that this lack of ratio here could always end up resulting in markets such as this, and like last time, no change there.
Range: 25900 to 26500