SPX , NDX and DJX update, today’s ratio table, levels and comment.

 

 

 

 

When we last looked at the SPX it was right on R2 which was then at 2645 and the market closed at 2643.69.

It did actually open up 3-points that Friday so the warning was when it couldn’t hold it, and the next level was R3 at 2595, or a bit lower as we didn’t calculate the ratios on that day.

However, as you can see from today’s table they are all easier below the zone, which is in keeping with how they have been moving so far this expiry.

The low on Friday was 2585.89 incidentally, and today R3 is 2570.

And just like the DJX Monday’s rally now sees this index back into the Y ratio bandwidth.

However, the zone has also fallen here and with the ratios stronger above it and weaker below it these are all bearish signs, so at the moment it is a bounce off high ratio levels but no mistake we are still in a bear market.

 

Range:            2645  to  2695

Activity           Very good

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

 

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Whether it is our ice-rink analogy or warning to hang on tight in the NDX the sad fact is nothing has actually changed.

Well, nothing pertinent that is.

Sure, the zone has narrowed, but the levels haven’t changed and it is still all completely Y ratio.

The disturbing aspect is that nothing has changed apart from the addition of a further 24 strikes, which is on top of the 28 previously, so seriously why bother when it enhances nothing. Surely if someone requests it then does zip, they and it are pointless?

 

Range:            6375  to  6775

Activity:          Average

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

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To be fair in these circumstances we really should be calculating the ratios daily the changes are so frequent.

Anyway, at least it reveals a huge degree of engagement, as more often than not these types of markets can get everyone running for the hills.

Activity is still high, the zone has dropped again, but the close back inside the Y2 ratio bandwidth makes today just as critical as all the others so far this expiry.

When we last looked at the DJX the Y ratio bandwidth below the zone stretched from 24800 all the way down to 24000, and Thursday’s close at 23957 was in hindsight a warning as that made the next support DR.

At 24000 it leapt to R3, and at 23700 it was DR, so that is a lot of futures buying, and no denying fundamentals were in charge, but to go that far Monday’s reaction was always a possibility.

 

Range:            23600  to  24000      or        24000  to  24600

Activity:          Strong

Type:              On balance fractionally bearish

 

 

 

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