SPX Sept to Oct Rollover table 15th September 2017
The SPX has been very much like the DAX in that we are more than happy with it hitting our forecast high and low, and in fact how it reacted throughout the expiry until this final week.
A miss is a miss but what is very odd is that it is just 15 points away so easily within range but it seems it just can’t be bothered.
Furthermore it would not be so much an issue if it was in the minimal Y1 ratio but here it is in R1 which is going to hurt someone so that should be worth at least trying to do something about it.
This is made even more surprising as they are still batting right up to the end judging by the level of activity.
Range: 2490 to 2505
Type: On balance bearish
October seems to be carrying on the can’t be bothered theme as for an intermediary expiry this level of activity is tantamount to the “only just registered” category.
The result has been some of the ratios on both sides slipping out a bit when in fact at this point we would fully expect them to be developing.
The last 3 days have been surprising because of the daily 6 point trading range so when this expiry takes over the market will be released from R1 into the Y ratios so we should start seeing some decent movement at last.
Range: 2480 to 2525
Activity: Very poor
Type: On balance definitely bullish
As one can see from the above table the ratios in the NDX above the zone have tumbled and we would like to say that something had to give, which is normal, but the SPX is proving the exception to the rule.
The main problem with taking it down to the wire is that everybody has to be singing from the same song sheet and although the zone hasn’t moved it is as good as at 5975-6025, so evidently everyone isn’t here.
This is because the fall yesterday, probably on route to the current level, has passed the potential new zone going the other way.
The end result now the ratios have fallen so dramatically is anywhere between 5875 and 6025 will not now be too painful.
Range: 5925 to 6050
Type: On balance decently bearish
The irony is that any more weakness today could see this index start October’s expiry inside its zone.
Considering how little ratio there actual is here and the minimal rate of development then this would be the ultimate display of sensitivity.
We have seen Y2 above the zone come in slightly but this needs to be a lot faster and more significant, but as they say you can take a horse to water but you can’t force it to drink.
Range: 5950 to 6200
Type: On balance only just bullish
If the DJX had just one more day we believe that 21900-22100 would be the next NZ, but as it is this is all academic now.
Furthermore the index is still 100 points above the top boundary of this potential new zone so it is still a miss.
However we are not surprised by this as this index made its feelings very plain on the first day when it went as low as 21600 and the top boundary of its current zone and has never looked back since.
This applied even when the SPX’s zone fell and that index dropped to meet it the DJX steadfastly refused to go anywhere near theirs and has maintained this bullish stance almost all year now.
Range: 21600 to 22600
That was a rather short lived burst of normality from this index as today activity reverts to its more usual begrudging levels.
At these levels we can’t see any major development of the ratios in the near future so come Monday this index will find itself back in Y1 ratio.
And as we mentioned there is still the possibility of a move up in the zone, although today it has not taken a further step towards this, but the result would be truly minimal ratio from 22100 all the way down to 21600 if it did.
Range: 21900 to 22900