It wasn’t quite as spectacular as the move down yesterday in the SPX but only because the market was already half way there but no less dramatic.
Certainly come to life now, and exactly as we would expect in the rollover, however the trick now is to calm everything down as job done really.
Of course it found itself in R1 and it did bring such a magnificent move to bit of an abrupt halt and today will be all about the zone or fighting the R ratios.
The big difference today is the appearance of Y2 below the zone which shows considerable firmness there which takes away almost all chances of the zone flipping back to 2445-2555.
Range: 2480 to 2485 or 2485 to 2505
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
Where Oct is concerned all the market has done is go from one Y1 ratio bandwidth to another.
From Wednesday onwards when we enter the grey area then this index can sometimes influence proceedings, but as you can see there is no ratio here to actually impact anything anyway.
However looking at the activity and there is no shirking going on and don’t forget the rollover is tomorrow so all this is a day early, so with this much involvement and so much Y ratio it could be a very good expiry to trade.
Range: 2480 to 2515
Activity: Very strong
Type: On balance just bearish
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As we said yesterday in the NDX “the real trick is going to be holding it in or at least near its zone for Wednesday as it looks a little early for us”.
Although judging by activity we suspect now it was early by design as it looks like fundamentals (and perhaps a launch) have taken control at the moment.
Having said that Y2 yesterday was at 5975 and although the market got as high as 5990.87 it was making rather heavy going of it and the close is significant.
Today it is no longer Y2 but it is just below the threshold so we would definitely call it a step-up.
Range: 5925 to 6025
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bullish
In keeping with what we have said above the activity here is hardly noteworthy so this just lends weight to the influence being elsewhere at present.
Of course this is in stark contrast to both the SPX and the DJX where at least one of the participants in the rollover had a very decent level of activity.
Of course with the huge amount of Y ratio still surrounding this index then the ratios couldn’t do anything even if they wanted to.
Range: 5950 to 6225
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance only just bullish
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The DJX is making up for lost time where activity is concerned, with easily the highest level this expiry and that is impressive in a triple.
The question is whether this is a result of the high of 22067 being a hit of R1 at which was then at 22100 or not.
It is still 33 points shy but it was a massive move so we can’t rule it out, but whatever the answer the end result is a decimation of the ratios above the zone.
The biggest change by far is the appearance, or reappearance, of Y1, which throws up the distinct possibility of the NZ moving to 22000-22200.
In the meantime it gives this index a stupidly wide Y ratio bandwidth.
Range: 21600 to 22600
Activity: Strong
Type: Bearish
The DJX Oct expiry is little changed, the main one being R1 below the zone drops back to 20900.
Of course it is still early days but where Sept has suddenly found freedom with a huge Y ratio bandwidth then this just highlights what is possible in this expiry when, as things stand, it will know no different.
Range: 21900 to 22900
Activity: Moderate
Type: Bearish
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