The SPX is normally more pragmatic when it comes to records and usually it is the DJX that goes crazy when chasing a new high.
We have seen this before when this index has such a quiet expiry it confuses the sudden increase in activity brought about by the rollover with investment and has a belated reaction.
Unfortunately the rollover and subsequent expiry often result in a sudden and more often than not painful reminder of what the real force is behind the market currently.
Funnily enough although the only change is to R1 above the zone today it is looking like 2445-2455 may not be done yet.
Range: 2490 to 2505
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
Although Oct doesn’t assume full control until Monday after today it can have an influence, although this would be in the grey area which is where we stand back as from experience it can take on a mind of its own, and hence its name.
However as an intermediary we would expect it to become more sensitive so depending on your time horizon this expiry is now entering an interesting position.
By which we mean Y2 is very quickly followed by R1 with the next level not too far behind all the while it is sitting on top of a 100 point Y ratio bandwidth.
Range: 2480 to 2510
Activity: Good
Type: On balance just bearish
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It is a rather odd rollover in the NDX, and we say that even though the big players stayed away this expiry from what we could see.
Without them it is normally meek and mild and with them it is generally a game of chicken between the market and the NZ, with the NZ generally losing.
This time we saw the market get back to its zone in good time on Friday, then the rally this week but absolutely no sign of the zone giving way.
Again like the SPX we suspect the rollover and expiry may well come as bit of a surprise.
Range: 5925 to 6025
Activity: Very poor
Type: Bearish
Even after today when this expiry can influence proceedings there is still not enough here to do so.
Again we see activity towards the bottom end of the table but as this is an intermediary as well as a five week expiry then the bar is very low indeed, so it should easily be above average without even trying.
Until this gets addressed as we said earlier on this week best get your ice skates on.
Range: 5950 to 6225
Activity: Moderate
Type: On balance just bullish
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Sincere apologies in the DJX for yesterday because we said “the biggest change by far is the appearance, or reappearance, of Y1, which throws up the distinct possibility of the NZ moving to 22000-22200”.
This was incorrect as on the table it showed Y1 as being at 22000 so therefore the potential new NZ should have read 21900-22100, sorry.
Of course 22100 was the old R1 level so yesterday would have carried the memory of that as well of course.
It hasn’t changed today, although it again makes big strides towards doing so, and until it does it will always carry the risk that the current level will prevail.
Range: 21600 to 22600
Activity: Moderate
Type: Not bearish
In Oct there is no hint at all that the NZ wants to change, in fact there is not much of a hint of anything.
The most striking aspect remains the NZ being a whopping 300 points wide, but until this index starts’ reacting in a more normal manner it is unlikely that it will even visit it.
Range: 21900 to 22900
Activity: Poor
Type: Not bearish
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