SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 30th July 2018
Our last comment was whether or not they would make the zone 2795-2805 for July’s SPX expiry, and as the settlement price was 2802.41 we have to assume they did.
This also explains why August’s zone is a massive 35-points, as basically it too is trying to jump to 2795-2805, and you see it caught in mid leap as it were.
Surprising, as activity suggests it should have been more decisive, but overall it is underdeveloped for an expiry a week old, intermediary or not.
The real question is whether the high of 2848.03 on Wednesday, a test of R1, is going to be the defining moment of this expiry.
Range: 2805 to 2850
Type: On balance bearish
We did say that this index really needs to be monitored daily in the final stages of an expiry, such is the rate of change of everything.
The fact that when we come back to find August’s zone in the NDX at 7275-7325 gives us a fairly good estimation where July’s ended up.
Activity has been good, and when we compare it to the others then it certainly is at the top.
However, no sign of the big players, but we have noticed a lot of new strikes, so there is definitely the very strong possibility they haven’t gone far.
Nowhere near as dramatic as last expiry, but already we have seen a test of the zones bottom boundary, so not altogether dissimilar.
Range: 7275 to 7325
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance only just bearish
After such an impressive round trip in the July DJX we were pleasantly surprised to see the settlement at 24982, which was just in its zone.
Perhaps it doesn’t sound much but when one considers the SPX was targeting a 2800 finish then in light of that pressure this was impressive.
Also, this is true of the high that week, being 25215, and a big hit on R2 which was then at 25200 in July.
Looking at August and perhaps this 1000-point zone will be the norm now? Who knows, but it is the case so far in this expiry.
Basically, the ratios below this phenomenally wide zone have increased whereas above they are static.
At the moment in the DJX it is all about whether it wants to break out of its zone as the last two trading days last week saw strong tests of the upper boundary.
So, make note it is on strike 3 if it gets back up there.
Range: 24500 to 25500
Type: On balance decidedly bearish