SPX , NDX & DJX Ratio Table 8th November 2018
Hope you still have those defibrillators to hand, as this great ride isn’t over yet.
We are very tempted to repeat some of what we said last time, back on the 1st Nov, but it is easier if you just look it up, it’s all on our website www.hedgeratioanalysis.com
Nevertheless, be honest, when this market was testing DR at 2595, with the intraday low of 2603.54, and our zone was where it still is now, did you think getting back to it was going to be impossible for the rollover.
We don’t say it will happen, we just show what’s possible, and all we need now before the rollover next week is a test of a R ratio above the zone for a nigh on perfect expiry.
The most pertinent aspects are the very few changes in the ratios in the last five trading days, and the very low level of activity considering the conditions.
From R2 and higher below the zone have all come in a bit, whereas above it this is true from R1 and upwards.
However, it is still in that ocean of Y ratio bandwidth, which is still an eye-watering 160-points wide, so expect more of the same, but as we pointed out last time it is the DJX that may have the agenda, so make sure you take what is happening there into consideration.
Range: 2805 to 2855
The NDX has managed to recover all the way back to its zone from its test of R1 at 6650 back on the 30th October with the intraday low of 6652.53.
However, a few points to cover, and first and foremost it has been the case in the past that when we see the type of activity, we are currently witnessing in the DJX, this index gets ignored, so it is unlikely the big players, as we refer to them, will surface here this trip.
Nevertheless, and our continuing bugbear, they continue to add strikes, why when they already have a ridiculous amount beats us, and judging by the activity levels it hasn’t worked, if indeed that was the goal.
As you can see no change at all in the ratios below the zone, so still a stupid amount of Y Ratio bandwidth.
But, above the zone, it now gets interesting, as Y2 has come in to 7275.
Don’t forget it is still just a Y ratio, but it’s better than nowt as they say.
The first clue will be how it now reacts, or even if, to its zones boundaries.
Range: 7175 to 7225
It seems just like yesterday the DJX was testing R2 at 24000 with the intraday low of 24122, but it was in fact back on 29th October.
However, as we pointed out in our last comment, this expiry has been more about its zone.
Which, incidentally is still massively wide.
But the very first day of this expiry the intraday high was 25561, and its subsequent failure to close above its bottom boundary had obvious dire consequences.
Fast forward to Friday 2nd and Monday 5th November when the intraday highs were 25578 and 25507 respectively and one can see that this bottom boundary was still proving difficult.
However, it did close just below it, and it being strike 3 the Tuesday saw it above it, leaving open skies above it for Wednesday.
If all this was just laying the groundwork then perhaps the motivation came from what we euphemistically called “massive involvement” that resulted in the appearance of DR at 27000.
More importantly this massive involvement has got even bigger, so perhaps gargantuan is a better word for it now.
Again, whether this is the target, ceiling or shorts it is difficult to tell, but on previous occasions when this type of thing has happened the result spoke volumes (sorry).
Range: 25500 to 26500