It is now almost a week since the SPX hit the pivotal DR ratio level and it hasn’t really retreated very far.
However, at some stage as it is now just a week to go until the rollover it will start having to think about that, and this is still some way away.
But this is the biggest of the big so rarely does it not go a little wild (or perhaps wilder) so with all this in mind we have had a close look and combined with (too much) experience we suspect when things hot up, from now on in other words, that 2595-2605 will make a move to be the rollover level.
Range: 2615 to 2655
Today we see that rarest of beasts in the NDX, their NZ heading south.
Today it has dropped to 6275-6325 and considering where the market closed this could bring a bit of relative stability.
However, it would be wise to remember, that although this is the first change in 4 days, in this expiry it has moved 4 times already, so we would like to think this will be it for the run-in to the rollover but history is against us.
Apart from the zone there are no significant other changes, so plenty of Y1 still either side, it’s just a question of whether it wants to calm down.
Can’t believe they added yet another 6 strikes, and deep ITM ones as well, truly too much.
Range: 6175 to 6275 or 6275 to 6325
Type: On balance bearish
It could be a really big day for the DJX although we are the first to admit everything looks innocuous enough.
The low yesterday was 24155 so definitely not a test of the bottom of our trading range, which of course is also R3.
If it tests it today and if it holds then that is a really big decision, even more so in light of the rollover a week today.
Of course, if it breaks below it then this too has significant ramifications.
And overshadowing all this is whatever happens will define whether or not it is still in its bubble, and expiring in R3 in the mighty Dec expiry will not bring any Christmas cheer to someone.
Range: 24100 to ……