SPX Jan to Feb rollover, not a pretty sight, table, levels and comment.

It was a truly awful end to 2018 and at this very point in the Dec expiry we were using the analogy of it escaping from under the pile-driver it was trapped beneath.

The net result was the Jan expiry opened with an unprecedented bandwidth of Y ratio, a truly astonishing 350-points wide.

It still didn’t stop the SPX from testing R3 at 2345 with the intraday low of 2346.58, which, so far, is the expiry low as well.

The fact the market responded, and quite emphatically, finishing up 117-points that day at 2467.70, revealed it had broken free from the pile-driver, courtesy of the new expiry no doubt.

Rather intriguingly the Y ratio bandwidth has stayed incredibly broad, so it has the opportunity to cut loose, but the DJX was quite a limiting factor.

The fact that their zone is hovering near the market, or vice versa, we suspect means they want a quiet expiry.

Good luck, is all we can say, as the Y ratio bandwidth still stretches from 2470 all the way up to 2685, so from our perspective anything can happen under these circumstances.

Range:            2570  to  2580        or        2580  to  2605

Activity:          Poor

Type:               On balance only just bullish

Don’t forget we do not make the rules, just report the numbers.

This is, in fact, the essence of the problem, as there are no numbers.

It may well be that one of the other two step up and take charge, but as things stand here in the SPX it certainly won’t be this index doing that.

Intermediary expiries to intermediary, apart from being the least common, tend to be noticeably underrepresented, but this is going way past that.

The fact is that the zone is a little bit higher, but the minimal Y1 ratio is so minimal that it could be the zone in its entirety.

The Y ratio bandwidth “is only” 290-points wide, so less than Jan at this stage, but this is still ridiculously wide, and, more to the point, there is no depth.

On both sides the ratio only goes as high as R2, at least last expiry we saw some DR.

Still a few days to go, but skittish doesn’t go anywhere near enough to describing how this index may be in the Feb expiry, and that’s in either direction.

Range:           2445  to  2595

Activity:         Average

Type:              Neutral