SPX don’t get complacent.

Nb. Our comment from 01/14/20 (Not published)


Nb. Our comment on 01/23/20


Well if we thought the Jan expiry was thin, then this Feb one has got even thinner.

In fact, it’s virtually opaque.

Please don’t read too much into the fact the zone has moved down to 3145-3155, as rather than being a bullish or bearish signal (down is bearish btw), this movement is really as a result of it being so thin.

Or, to put it another way, devoid of any ratio.

More significant, is the fact that R1 below the zone has not moved at all, which is highly unusual in the first week of a new expiry.

Furthermore, above the zone, R1 has moved in, but only by 20-points, which is nothing considering.

Another very unusual fact, is this expiry is the first of two back-to-back 5-week expiries. One is unusual enough, but we would need a historian to tell us the last time we got two together.

At the end of the day, the really important factor is the immense amount of Y Ratio present, a staggering 260-point bandwidth worth.

So, same as last expiry, it may not happen, but don’t be complacent as the risk of a massive move is there.

In fact, the risk is heightened, and 3% moves are extremely possible, which in cold numbers, is 100-points, so be very aware.

Obviously 3320 and 3280 are the crucial levels.


Range:            3320  to  ….          

Activity:          Good      

Type:              On balance bearish

January 23rd, 2020 by