SPX 35-point bounce off R2, restrained NDX and DJX as forecast, today’s ratio table, levels and comment.

 

 

 

 

Just as well the SPX hit 2595 yesterday when it was R2, as today it has dropped to R1.

Just as we said on Wed 2^nd R2 at 2595 did provide “a solid line of support” so we sincerely hope you did indeed take note of this level, as it was a very impressive bounce from the low of 2594.62 of 35.11-points.

More to the point with virtually zero drawdown.

No two expiries are ever the same, and May is proving a very odd one indeed, as although activity is neutral it is strange that this early on we are seeing a considerable amount of money coming off the table on both sides.

Still a ridiculously wide Y ratio bandwidth and the zone could now either be 2645-2655 or revert back to 2695-2705, weird, or more likely very undecided.

 

Range:            2595  to  2670

Activity           Moderate

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

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For the NDX to only drop 100-points’ish we think is very restrained of it.

In fact, considering yesterday was by and far the low so far this expiry for both the SPX and DJX it is worth noting here that their low last week was 6426.57, just over 100-points lower than yesterday.

Perhaps it was the bottom of their zone that came to the recue at 6550 as the low was 6539.86.

Both Y2 levels have come in, activity is holding up but still a insanely wide Y1 ratio bandwidth persists.

 

Range:            6625  to  6975

Activity:          Average

Type:              On balance only just bearish

 

 

 

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Hopefully you also took note of what we said in respect of the DJX as right on cue 23800 gave way.

“We hope so as that was strike 3, so it has already beaten expectations, but more importantly it is just holding on to being R3 by the skin of its teeth, and if it does get breached then 23600 would be the next ratio support level”.

As it turns out it went as low as 23531, so a little bit of overshoot (0.33%), but as we also said is what it really needed was a friend, so little surprise it had to wait on the SPX hitting their R2 level before reacting, in what was a changing ratio environment for themselves don’t forget.

Funnily enough the exact opposite here than in the SPX where activity is concerned, so it may well be more than happy to pick up the baton again and take the lead.

Interestingly the high yesterday was 23996, so it didn’t quite make it past R1, so that is the first hurdle, and if it gets over that then it is back into its own enormous Y ratio bandwidth.

 

 

Range:            23600  to  24600

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              Neutral

 

 

 

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