Nb. Our comment from the 02/15/21
When we said it would “calm down” even we didn’t expect it to go to sleep.
Although it hasn’t not been exciting, which is somewhat in contrast to the lack of movement.
Essentially all week it has been one long battle with its zones’ upper boundary at 6550.
Some days were far more aggressive than others, in particular the Monday and Wednesday.
On the 8th the market spent almost 4 hours above the boundary, flatlining around 6560, but on the 10th the market actually opened around 6560 (officially 6531.56 but we all know that is rubbish), went about 17-points higher before collapsing all the way back by almost 100-points.
No surprise then that the very next day the intraday high 6554.15.
How it held out for so long is a mystery, as that last test was strike number 5, but it still needed a good Street on the Friday to help it over the line.
The problem is that we are now into the rollover on Wednesday and the expiry on Friday, so it couldn’t have picked a worse time to do it.
And don’t forget the next trip is the first triple of the year, so everything just goes up a notch or two.
Also, we will endeavour to see if the amber gambler decides to come back, as that will influence proceedings of course.
So perhaps it isn’t such a bad time to come back to life after all.
Should be an interesting one nevertheless, as it is a straightforward fistfight between the amazingly stubborn but not that committed bulls, and the gravitational pull of the zone at this particular time.
Range: 6550 to 6650
Nb. Our comment on 02/18/21
Talk about picking the exact wrong time to come to life, then that’s the FTSE in a nutshell this week.
Certainly, forced the derivatives players out of their slumber, and just once they had started to count their “keeping it in its zone” monies, they had to scramble just to get back on side.
On Monday, when it blasted up through R1 (then at 6650), this then left R2 at 6800 as the next target.
Impressive slap in the face it was as well, first attack got it up to 6799.23 before it dropped 30-points, then it regrouped, had another go, this time reaching 6799.92, before it fully capitulated, and where we now are is the result.
Interestingly, yesterday R1 had slipped from 6650 to 6700, and the intraday low was 6701.59.
However, the ratios are in full retreat above, and funnily enough below as well, so R1 has now leapfrogged the market.
Basically, the vast swathes of Y ratio that were present in the first few weeks of this expiry, and which caused such rejoicing from the bears, has returned.
We can’t really see the zone moving, precious little time left either, so we suspect the best this market can hope for is to keep it in the Y ratios for the expiry.
At least they are in a similar situation to the Street, so there shouldn’t be any divergence that might need counteracting.
Our first peek at March also has that zone at 6450-6550, and rather worryingly for the bulls, a lot more ratio above it then there is below.
Could be in for an exciting end to this trip, as well as the start of the next. Yay.
Range: 6550 to 6750