Nb. Our comment from the 04/05/21
Was it worth the wait?
Probably not, but at least we have got the movement we have been anticipating.
The real shame was, that because it took so long to come, the starting point was 3973 (Wednesday’s close), so it didn’t have a very long way to go.
And when it hit Y2 at 4005, all the steam went out of the market, as it flatlined just above here for the best part of the day, only managing to eke out a reasonable beachhead in the final few minutes.
But a beachhead in Y2 it now has, so R1 is the next level of resistance.
A ratio level that hasn’t needed much persuasion to retreat straight back to where it started this expiry at, 4080.
Obviously, having been so indecisive at 4005 last Thursday, we are not altogether convinced the bulls are as adamant and confident as the market move suggests.
Therefore, it might be worth noting that there is what we call a step-up in the ratio at 4030, and of course at last week’s R1 Level, 4055.
So, it might be wise to play close attention to these specific levels just to try and gauge how committed the bulls really are.
However, a good sign is that the ratios are moving up below the zone, which in itself is also likely to move up, which are all bullish signs.
The total Y1 ratio bandwidth has now shrunk (?) to 185-points, whereas the Y2 on remains the same at 335-points.
So, yeah, it all looks good, the signs are tentatively bullish, but please don’t lose sight of the fact that we are now approaching the R ratios, and that the corresponding one does not make an appearance until 3745, so this is most definitely not a risk-free environment.
Range: 3905 to 4080
Type: On balance only just bearish
Nb. Our comment for 04/15/21
Sincere apologies for the lack of ratio information.
All we can say is that last week the top of our trading range was R1 at 4080, which effectively caught the intraday high for the first three trading days.
Thursday saw R1 at 4105, and the intraday high was 4098.19.
Friday last week saw the zone move up and R1, putting it at 4155, but the intraday high was only 4129.48, however the impasse had been broken, which was probably more important.
Anyway, we are sure you get the picture, as the retreat by R1 continued into this week, resulting in today it is resting at 4255, a retreat of 200-points this expiry, which is astonishing in itself.
R2 disappeared on Wednesday, but it could have been Tuesday, as we didn’t calculate the ratios that day.
What can we say? Apart from the market has been virtually sucked higher by the void left by the retreating ratios.
It may be all-time-highs, but trust us when we say, that they have not had to work for this at all.
However, we stand by what we said way back on the 5th April, that this is not a risk-free market.
In fact, the risks have just increased, as the ratios below the zone are not climbing as fast as those above it are retreating, so therefore, the Y1 ratio bandwidth has actually increased to 310-points, and the overall Y ratio bandwidth to a staggering 485-points.
Of course, nobody cares, as all-time-highs mean back-slapping all round, especially by the politicians, and its only ever a problem when a spanner is thrown in the works, and this market dumps 12% in a blink of an eye because there is absolutely no ratio support there at all.
And its not as if this hasn’t happened before, so there really is no excuse for not being able to recognise the scenario.
Range: 4005 to 4255
Type: On balance only just bearish