Nb. Our comment from the 09/17/21 (Not published)
Nb. Our comment on 09/20/21
Turns out that there was just one last “hurrah” in the September expiry, and with the EDSP of 7031.68 it was all about the zone at the end.
Which is really what is all about in the October expiry as well, as here the zone is now 7000-7100, which is in fact slightly higher than it was in September.
This does however throw a degree of confusion over whether the support at 6950 on Friday was down to the hangover of Sept’s bottom boundary, or an early test of R1 in Oct.
Either way, it held firm, but it remains a very critical level in this expiry, meaning the first couple of days could decide the next 4-weeks.
If R1 doesn’t hold, and if you compare the two tables above, it has only very recently become R1 from Y2, then the market will find itself in a 250-point wide bandwidth.
Of course, we must also point out that currently this index is below its zone, so it actually starts this expiry already in bear territory, which won’t please many.
Furthermore, the terrible irony of it all, is that all that woe this index had in Sept trying to get past R2 at 7150 and then R3 at 7200 is now no longer a problem, with R1 above the zone not kicking in until 7250.
But, first things first, and that is a hold at R1, and then to recapture its new zone. Otherwise it’s a long way down to R2 support.
Finally, don’t forget that we are now back to an intermediary expiry, so everything gets taken down a notch, or at least it should, as overall activity is about a quarter of what we saw in September’s triple witching expiry.
Range: 6950 to 7000
Activity: Very good
Type: On balance bearish