This is the risk you take when, as in the FTSE, it takes for granted the NZ will move, acts accordingly, and then it doesn’t.
The assumed NZ was meant to be 7450-7550 and the fact the market closed just below the bottom boundary is significant.
Especially as one can see the zone has rather stubbornly stayed put so it will be an interesting battle today for the expiry.
To get back into the existing zone means giving up as much again today as yesterday, but these expiries can be rather transient blips.
Range: 7400 to 7550
Whatever fun and games they are having in Dec here in Jan the close just means it is now back within its zone.
It might be worthwhile bearing in mind on this last day for Dec that the common ground covered by both NZ’s is a rather narrow 7350 to 7400.
Of course, this expiry really doesn’t gain full control until Monday but partly why we monitor this is because of the opportunities it may provide, although in this instance, as it stands, being back in its zone narrows down the choice.
Range: 7350 to 7450 or 7450 to 7550
Type: On balance only just bearish
It seems like the NZ is having a bit more influence in the DAX then perhaps they would like.
To be fair we were more than happy to see it Y1 for the rollover and we extend that to include the expiry but with the low yesterday of 13011 we thought it might actually end up expiring in its NZ.
It rallied at the last minute to finish just above its upper boundary, but it may well make for a grandstand finish to this expiry yet.
Range: 12950 to 13050 or 13050 to 13250
Type: On balance only just fractionally not bullish
At least activity has picked up in Jan but really where the market finishes today will dictate the sort of expiry we may be in for this trip.
Of course, this is all about the NZ and whether or not it will end up inside it.
Otherwise, despite the level of activity, there have been no changes to any of the ratios, and they all still appear rather undernourished.
Range: 12950 to 13050 or 13050 to 13450
Type: On balance bullish