For the FTSE 7550 is now even more important this expiry week.

Nb. Our comment from the 01/06/20

As we said last week, “7550 is a massive level now”, and on Friday the intraday low was 7551.00.

But on the Tue and Thu either side of the New Year break the intraday low was 7532.38 and 7542.44 respectively.

So, Fri made that strike 3, and we wouldn’t expect it to hold out again.

Even more so as the ratios have slipped there, and so, as 7550 stands, it only just makes the threshold of R2, so it might be better to think of it as R1 as the day goes on.

In perspective, this means R1 is going up against the dynamic delta that goes with DR ratio, and really there should only ever be one winner in that fight.

Although, finishing up 18-points on Fri was bit of a surprise, no matter that 7550 was R2.

So, for us, this is still a very scary situation, with now only R1 standing in the way of this market racing down to its zone, 200-points away.

Of course, we can’t ignore its resilience, but at the same time we can’t ignore that this expiry remains in a very precarious position.

How the new geopolitical scenario will play out, who knows, but to us, this has only just increased the potential of “a scare”, as the risks are still the same as they were.

In fact, the only ratio to actually change, is B1 which slips out a fraction.

Perhaps worth remembering is that this expiry is only just at the half way stage, so you have two more weeks of this.

Range:            7550  to  7650         

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              On balance bullish        

Nb. Our comment on 01/13/20

So, 7550 remains “a massive level”.

However, for slightly different reasons as the ratios have evolved around it.

Nevertheless, we should point out that since that test of 7650, or what was DR ratio, way back on the 27^th December, the FTSE has been frightened to go back there again.

And, lets face it, what with constant record highs Stateside, it’s not as if it hasn’t had ample opportunity.

In fact, a fortnight worth of opportunity, which in market terms is an eternity.

In our last comment, 7550 was the demarcation line between the R ratios and Y ratio, now it is the upper boundary of the zone, which has conveniently moved.

This means rather than 7550 sitting on top of an abyss of Y ratio, that went all the way down to 7350, it is now just the gateway to the zone.

Rather handy considering this is rollover, with the expiry on Friday.

It will get very fruity next week, it always does over the expiry, but with the added geopolitical situation it’s a given.

Therefore, the real new demarcation line may well now prove to be 7450.

This being the bottom boundary of the new zone, and if that capitulates, then there is an awful lot of Y ratio beneath that.

At the end of the day, considering the circumstances, to even be in with a shout of a normal expiry is a result.

But it will be a long week, and after the Dec expiry, Wed will be very significant.

Range:            7550  to  7650         

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              On balance bullish