Fascinating start to Aug for the SPX

Fascinating start to the August expiry for the SPX


Nb. Our comment from the 07/20/20 (Not published for the August expiry)


Nb. Our comment for 07/21/20


Well it is certainly a fascinating start to the August expiry, but for not the right reasons.

In the table above, you can clearly see how far Y2 has slipped, and in just one day.

More to the point, this is in just “moderate” activity, and which is “neutral” into the bargain.

And, just like the FTSE, overall, and this is even for a 5-week expiry, activity is abysmal.

In comparison to the last expiry, August is about 20% lower at the same stage, and, in comparison to the last biggie, June, it is about a quarter of its size.

But, even at this incredibly early stage, the ratios are building below the zone and weakening above it, on top of the fact the zone should move to 3195-3205, when, in fact, the zone should have moved, and the ratios should be building on both sides, this early on.

It is all bullish, but please, just be very aware that this index is sitting on top of a 410-point Y ratio bandwidth.

So, it may look good, and the market may look relaxed, and only ever looking to a new all-time high, fuelled by a complacent press, but there is literally nothing, absolutely zilch, supporting this market underneath it, and that is for a massive 12.6%.

Nobody, or nothing, might say “boo”, but that doesn’t mean the risk is not there.


Range:            3105  to  3305         

Activity:          Moderate 

Type:              Neutral


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July 21st, 2020 by