Failing at R2 at 7650 was a warning.

It is all gearing up for a typical end to a triple witching expiry, so we hope you were/are ready for it.


Nb. Our comment from the 06/06/2022

Very short week last week courtesy of the Jubilee, but none the duller for it.

Monday was all about finding its feet in the R1 ratio bandwidth it was in. Testing the water as it were.

Tuesday, having got used to it, saw it push ahead to the next point of resistance. Namely R2, and exactly where we had put the top of our trading range, for this very reason. So, when we saw the intraday high of 7648.26, we hoped you too had noticed and were aware of its significance.

Interestingly, on the Wednesday (the last trading day of last week), we saw the intraday high of 7639.21. This was not another test of R2, but something more valuable, as it is a good sign of everyone opening the door for someone else to go through first.

By this we mean, when you know there is a large futures seller at 7650, having just been there and seen the tip of the iceberg, if you are not a futures buyer, then it is only natural to let, or want to let, someone else go first. And if everyone is of a like mind, then you get a stalled market just below said ratio level.

Finally, the close was back inside its zone.

Nice, safe and cosy for the very long weekend.

Nevertheless, it was over 100-points drop from Tuesday’s high.

For this week, you now know that the market knows that above 7550 it is R1, and at 7650 there is a large futures seller. Otherwise, it is back inside its zone, where there is no ratio at all for the 100-points that this comprises. And something to watch out for, especially as we are only half way through this expiry, is that at the other end of the zone it is only Y ratio.


Range:            7450  to  7550       

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Not bullish



Nb. Our comment on 06/13/22

It is good to have a bit of continuity, hence we always include (for better, and sometimes even for worse) what we said the previous week, just so you can reacquaint yourself with the thread of the expiry.

However, this time, we sincerely hope you also read last weeks comment about the SPX, especially the bit about volatility returning just in time for the rollover and expiry this week.

Anyway, about midday last Monday (6/6/22) we saw another test of R2 at 7650 with the intraday high of 7646.66.

Our analogy above, about holding the door open for others to go through fist, is just as good even if it is by just a few points. The other scenario is that one, or more, players are aggressive, and that way you get a deep incursion into the next bandwidth. In either case, it should give you invaluable insight into the market forces at play in that instant.

Obviously, Monday was not a good sign for the bulls.

From then on, it was just a steady progression all the way back into its zone.

Friday was a bit of a surprise, well to the greater London market participants anyway, as hopefully you would have anticipated the SPX going a little wild.

Then, just as it didn’t bother much with R1 when it was heading north of its zone, then neither would we expect it to have much influence below.

Dropping through R2 at 7350 was an interesting battle though, which under more normal circumstances we would have expected it to hold.

The big question therefore, is will R3 at 7250?

Well, as it is rollover and expiry, with that extra gravitational influence, then yes, hopefully it will. Worth noting, R2 in the SPX on Friday stood at 3895.

But all the levels are there for all to see in the table above, as is where the zone is but, at the end of the day, the only certainty is that this is what we expect a typical end to a triple witching expiry would be.


Range:            7250  to  7350       

Activity:          Very poor

Type:              Bearish

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June 14th, 2022 by