Exciting start to the SPX Jan expiry.

Exciting start to the Jan expiry for the SPX


Nb. Our comment from the 12/18/20 (Not published)


Nb. Our comment for 12/23/20


Although we did not publish back on the 18th, and anyway, it was still the December expiry, we did calculate the ratios, and have therefore included them in the above table so you can discern the evolution from then to today.

And, just like the FTSE, it is a shame that we didn’t publish this month’s before it became the front month on Monday, as that was the day it all happened.

The intraday low came at the end of a 66.42-point drop to 3636.48, and we are not too worried about a bit of overshoot under the circumstance, so this was most definitely a test of the bottom boundary of its zone.

And we are more than happy to call the intraday high that day of 3702.90 a test of Y2.

A bandwidth test on the first day is going some, and because of this we are not too sure it even knew that it was.

Despite this exciting start there are still some points to note.

Firstly, at least we have some strength and movement in the ratios below the zone.

Secondly, we would expect Jan’s zone to join where Dec ended, 3695-3705.

Thirdly, a little bit of strength in the ratios above the zone, despite the two points below, so significantly no weakening, or at least as yet.

Fourthly, the Y ratio bandwidth is a colossal 460-points wide.

Fifthly, at the moment the market is in bullish territory (above its zone) but a lot may well rest on where it is when the zone does move.

Sixthly, the year-end performance bonus season is not yet over.

Finally, it is thin out there, typical for a Jan expiry, but with all that Y ratio around that’s a 12.5% range of minimal ratio, so, literally, anything could/can happen.


Range:            3655  to  3705 (3805)         

Activity:          Moderate

Type:              On balance only just bearish


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December 23rd, 2020 by